The Velocity of Climate Change: 2011

1. The Velocity of Climate Change: 2011 Chris Field Carnegie Institution: Department of Global Ecology www.global-ecology.org

2. Toles, time machine

3. Article 2 of the UNFCCC The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

4. Article 2 of the UNFCCC The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

5. Article 2 of the UNFCCC The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

6. Three Messages • Need for risk-based framing • Need to tackle the hard stuff • Agriculture: Human factors • Ecosystems: Mortality • The role of velocity

7. Risk = probability x consequence

9. The velocity of climate change • How fast is the climate changing? • How fast ecosystems and agriculture respond? • How fast can people and societies respond – adaptation? • How fast can people and societies respond – mitigation?

10. The velocity of climate change Loarie et al. Nature 2009

11. (°/yr)/(°/km) = (km/yr) Parmesan and Yohe. Nature 2003 Average shift 0.61 km yr-1 Chen et al. Science 2011 Average Shift 1.69 km yr-1 Loarie et al. Nature 2009

12. Loarie et al. Nature 2009

13. Euphydryasedithabayensis Centaureasolstitialis Angel Watkins, US Forest Service, 2007

14. Challenges • Forestry • Mortality • Agriculture • Yield gaps • Thresholds

15. Rapid, widespread forest die-off

16. Allen et al. 2010

17. Lobell et al. ARER 2009

18. Lobell et al. ARER 2009

19. Lobell et al. ARER 2009

20. US crop yields: Threshold behavior Temperature (°F) 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Schlenker and Roberts PNAS 2009 Corn Temperature (°C)

21. Lobell et al. Nature Climate Change 2011

22. Lobell et al. Nature Climate Change 2011

23. The role of velocity? • Which ecosystem outcomes • Which farmer decisions • Integrating risk