Lecture 18: WMD Part 2

1. Lecture 18: WMD Part 2 • Assessing the WMD Terrorist Threat

2. Historical Examples • Examples of use by Non-State Actors • Sri Lanka: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) used chlorine gas in its June 1990 assault on a Sri Lankan Armed Forces camp at East Kiran • Japan: Aum Shinrikyo used Sarin gas in several attacks • - Matsumoto (March, 1994): 7 dead, 34 injured • - Tokyo (April, 1995): 12 dead, 5,000 injured • - also responsible for several attacks against individuals using syringes loaded with crude form of VX

3. The Threat Intentions High High Capabilities & Opportunities Low Low

4. WMD and Intention Very Complex The more complicated the weapon, the lower the chances of a successful operation CBRN Weapons High-yield Explosives (RDX, TATP) Basic Explosives (TNT, C-4) Small Arms & Light Weapons Low Probability of Success High Probability of Success

5. Ideologies of violence A Spectrum of Ideologies Threshold of catastrophic violence Nonviolent Protests Apocalyptic Terrorism Groups that want to change the world, but reject the need for violent means Groups that want to change the world, and see a need for violent means Groups that want to destroy the world, for various reasons,possibly with WMD

6. WMD and ideology Total Destruction Ideology may indicate likely preference for certain type of WMD Biological Nuclear RadiologicalChemical High-Yield Explosives Low Lethality Non-Lethal Weapons Apocalyptic Vision Spectrum of Violent Ideologies

7. Al-Qaida & WMD Al-Qaida’s leadership has long expressed a direct interest in WMD. “It is our religious duty to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons to terrorize the enemies of Allah”– Osama bin Laden, 1998 The 11th volume of Al-Qaeda’s 5000-page “Encyclopedia of Jihad” is devoted to explaining how to construct Chemical and Biological Weapons Revelations post-9/11 provide evidence al-Qaida has sought to Establish links with Pakistani nuclear scientists Obtain nuclear suitcase bombs from Russia Procure Bio-Chem agents from Czech Republic, Iraq, DPRK Develop means for spreading disease and poison

8. Why On a strategic level, Al Qaida’s leaders want: To damage the U.S. and West economically a mushroom cloud (visual impact) more than massive numbers of bio or chem deaths; to change the course of history; to “prove” that even if we can win in Iraq, Afghanistan, we can’t win this war to undermine Westphalian notion of nation-state supremacy in international order and power brokering Man-made systems are inferior to Holy Quran to fuel aligned ideological movements by showing strength of weak against strong

9. Why (Cont.) Al Qaida’s leaders also believe: Supporters of the global salafi-jihadist movement want and expect a “spectacular” event even bigger than 9/11 They are in competition with other “voices” in the Muslim world, and a catastrophic terror attack will allow them to claim center stage America and the West have it coming; a WMD attack is necessary to “even the score” A “Nuclear 9/11” would cause economic depression

10. Religious Justifications?

11. Using WMD Against Infidels • Saudi Cleric Shaykh Nasir Bin Hamd Al-Fahd attempted to religiously legitimize the use of WMDs by stating that: • Laws and treaties established by infidels against the use of nuclear, biological and chemical weaponshave no standing in Islamic law. • Pronouncements of historical Islamic jurists legitimate WMD and provide exceptions to the prohibition against killing women and children. • Damage American bombs have done to Muslim lands over many years justifies revenge

12. Using WMD Against Infidels (October 21, 2002): Abu Musab al-Suri, a Syrian who spent the 1990s working with al-Qaeda leaders to train fighters in the use of "poisons and chemicals" at two camps near Jalalabad and Kabul, praised the 9/11 attacks, but said a better plan would have been to load the hijacked airplanes with weapons of mass destruction: "Let the American people - those who voted for killing, destruction, the looting of other nations' wealth, megalomania and the desire to control others - be contaminated with radiation." (September 28, 2006): Abu Ayyub al-Masri—the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq—encouraged his fellow terrorists to consider testing these weapons in Iraq: “The field of jihad (holy war) can satisfy your scientific ambitions, and the large American bases (in Iraq) are good places to test your unconventional weapons, whether biological or dirty, as they call them.”

13. Al-Qaida and RDD Al-Qaida shows ongoing interest in radiological attacks (cf. Jose Padilla case) Myriad sources could be used for this purpose Medical/educational facilities, atomic waste storage facilities, commercial sites Most lack concerted security Especially medical facilities Disruptive socio-economic effects could be enormous Especially if attack occurred in a congested urban area Or at a major port city (Boston, Los Angeles, New York)

14. A Nuclear 9/11? About 440 commercial N-power reactors in 31 countries. A 9/11-style suicide attack on a nuclear installation could be conducted by land, air, water or cyber attacks Diagrams of American power plants found in Afghanistan. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Ramzi Binalshibh, two organizers of the 9/11 attacks, acknowledged in 2002: “We first thought of striking a couple of nuclear facilities but it was eventually decided to leave out the nuclear targets – for now.” Arrests made in Canada (2003), Britain (2004), Australia (2005), India (2006) to foil planned attacks on nuclear plants

15. Conclusion • WMD terrorist attacks require intentions and capabilities; Few groups have intentions, even fewer have capabilities • Al Qaida is considered by most analysts as one of the few groups in the “high intentions” and “potential high capability” category • Concerted links between state CBRN proliferation and al-Qaida are yet to be established • WMD challenges faced by terrorists include: • - Response (massive retaliation) fears • - Insufficient capability • - Philosophical or moral issues

16. Questions?