
UNCLASSIFIED. Air Force CONOPS & Capabilities Based Planning. Lt Col Nathan Titus Resource Analyses Directorate Air Force Studies & Analyses Agency 19 Mar 04. UNCLASSIFIED. UNCLASSIFIED. Overview. Capabilities Based Planning Background Challenges to Implementation
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Air Force CONOPS &
Capabilities Based Planning
Lt Col Nathan Titus
Resource Analyses Directorate
Air Force Studies & Analyses Agency
19 Mar 04
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“[P]lanning, under uncertainty, to provide capabilities suitable for a wide range of modern-day challenges and circumstances while working within an economic framework that necessitates choice.”
Paul K. Davis, Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation, MR-1513-OSD
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Effect
Effect
Capability
Capability
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Fundamentals:Defining Effects and Capabilities
Master Capability List
Effects Construct
Capability 1
Capability 2
Sub-
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Sub-
Capability
Sub-Sub-
Capability
Sub-Sub-
Capability
Sub-Sub-
Capability
Sub-Sub-
Capability
Sub-Sub-
Capability
Sub-Sub-
Capability
C8
C5
C1
C6
C3
C7
C2
C4
Analytic Issues: Defining RiskCapability
Severity of Impact
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Concepts of Operations (CONOPS) ... will guide our planning and programming, requirements reform, and acquisition.
...make warfighting effects, and the capabilities we need to achieve them, the drivers for everything we do.
... shift from a program review to a review of how our programs contribute to warfighting capabilities and effects.
…Air Staff designed a new review to replace the ‘Quarterly Acquisition Review Program’--we call this new approach a Capabilities Review and Risk Assessment (CRRA).
Determine
Environment
Assess
Cue(s)
Determine Sensor Availability
Task Sensor
Collect
Data
Detect Target
Track until Stopped
Geolocate Target
ID Target
Update
Target
List
Assign weapon to target
Update Mission Plans
Issue Execution Order
Support Weapon Flyout
DDD Target
Deconflict target
Task
BDI / BHI
Collect
BDI / BHI
Assess
BDI / BHI
Remove from Target List
Using the MCL Example Activity Diagram (Time Sensitive Targeting)
More doesn’t matter
Good Enough
Can’t do it
with less
CONOPS
Homeland Security
CONOPS
Global
Mobility
CONOPS
Nuclear Response
CONOPS
Space
& C4ISR
CONOPS
Air Force CONOPS ConstructFocus for Planning & ProgrammingUNCLASSIFIED
Global Vigilance
Global Reach
Global Power
Joint Vision
USAF Vision
Air & Space Expeditionary Forces
Global
Persistent
Attack
CONOPS
Agile Combat Support
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Phase 2B – Analysis (Leveraging Existing Efforts & New Focused Work)
Phase 3 – Apply Professional Military Judgment
Phase 1 - Foundations
Define Master Capability Library
Define Scenarios
Pair-wise Comparisons
Warm Database Mining
Architecture-Based Thread Analyses
Define CONOPS Activity Models
Define Metrics
CRRA Briefing Trail
CONOPS-Specific Analyses
Product: Focus Areas List
Product: Prioritized Courses of Action
Product: Candidate Courses of Action
Product: Capability Performance Framework
Assess Proficiency
Phase 2C – Analysis (Characterization and Optimization of Solutions)
Product:
Planning and Programming Guidance to MAJCOMS
(APPG)
Assess Sufficiency
Assess Impact
Characterization of Resource Constraints
Characterization of Warfighting Effects
Phase 2A – Analysis (Subjective Assessment)
Optimization of Alternatives
Joint Functional Concepts
Battlespace Awareness
Joint Cmd & Ctrl
Force Application
Protection
Focused Logistics
AF CONOPS Capabilities
1.0 Surveillance &
Reconaissance
3.0 Command &
Control
5.0 Force Application
7.0 Protect
6.0 Force Projection
2.0 Intelligence
4.0 Communications
8.0 Prepare &
Sustain
9.0 Create the Force
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C8
C5
C1
C2
0
0
0
0
0
C6
C7
C3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C4
Analytic Issues:Determining Shortfall PrioritiesPrioritized Shortfalls
Combine with Risk Assessment Scores
Determine Weights
Shortfall priority = f(shortfall importance, risk, cost)
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1.0 Data Collection
2.0 Intelligence
3.0 Command &
Control
4.0 Communications
1.1 Surveillance
(Un-Cued Continuous
Collection)
2.1 Process and
Exploit Intel
3.1 Planning
4.1 Exchange
Information
1.2 Reconnaissance
(Cued Search,
Focused Coll.)
2.2 Provide Intel
Assessments
3.2 Execution
Management
4.2 Provide for Data
Storage and Retrieval
1.3 Collect Weather
Related Information
3.3 Provide Positioning,
Navigation, Timing
Information
4.3 Provide Network
Damage Assessment
& Reconstitution
5.0 Force Application
6.0 Full Spectrum
Threat Response
7.0 Combat Support
8.0 Mobility
5.1 Countermeasures
6.1 Protect the Force
7.1 Establish
Operating Locations
8.1 Airlift
5.2 Neutralize Air
Threats/Targets
6.2 Provide Support
for Civil Authorities
7.2 Generate
the Mission
8.2 Air Refueling
5.3 Neutralize Space
Threats/Targets
6.3 Defensive
Information Operations
7.3 Support
Mission and Forces
8.3 Space Lift
5.4 Neutralize Surface
Threats/Targets
7.4 Posture
Responsive Forces
5.5 Neutralize
Sub-Surface
Threats/Targets
7.5 Sustain
Mission and Forces
5.6 Offensive
Information Operations
7.6 Public Affairs
5.7 Combat Search
and Rescue
1.0 Data Collection
2.0 Intelligence
3.0 Command &
Control
4.0 Communications
1.1 Surveillance
(Un-Cued Continuous
Collection)
2.1 Process and
Exploit Intel
3.1 Planning
4.1 Exchange
Information
1.2 Reconnaissance
(Cued Search,
Focused Coll.)
2.2 Provide Intel
Assessments
3.2 Execution
Management
4.2 Provide for Data
Storage and Retrieval
1.3 Collect Weather
Related Information
3.3 Provide Positioning,
Navigation, Timing
Information
4.3 Provide Network
Damage Assessment
& Reconstitution
5.0 Force Application
6.0 Full Spectrum
Threat Response
7.0 Combat Support
8.0 Mobility
5.1 Countermeasures
6.1 Protect the Force
7.1 Establish
Operating Locations
8.1 Airlift
5.2 Neutralize Air
Threats/Targets
6.2 Provide Support
for Civil Authorities
7.2 Generate
the Mission
8.2 Air Refueling
5.3 Neutralize Space
Threats/Targets
6.3 Defensive
Information Operations
7.3 Support
Mission and Forces
8.3 Space Lift
5.4 Neutralize Surface
Threats/Targets
7.4 Posture
Responsive Forces
5.5 Neutralize
Sub-Surface
Threats/Targets
7.5 Sustain
Mission and Forces
5.6 Offensive
Information Operations
7.6 Public Affairs
5.7 Combat Search
and Rescue
Global Mobility Effects Construct
Rapid Projection
of Joint Power
0.4
0.6
7.0 Combat
Support
8.0 Mobility
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
1.0 Data
Collection
3.0 Command &
Control
4.0 Comm
6.0 FSTR
8.1 Air Lift
8.2 Air Refueling
8.3 Space Lift
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.6
1.3 Collect
Weather Info
3.1 Planning
3.3 Nav, Pos, &
Timing
7.1 Establish
Operating Location
7.2 Generate the
Mission
4.1 Exchange
Information
4.2 Data
Storage
4.3 Network
Damage Assess
5.1 Defensive
Countermeasures
3.2 Execution
Management
7.3 Support the
Mission
6.1 Protect the
Force
7.4 Posture the
Force
Crosscutting Analysis:Using the Effects Construct
Effect A
Effect B
Effect C
Effect D
0.1
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.4
Capability 6
Capability 1
Capability 2
Capability 3
Capability 4
Capability 5
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.5
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.4
0.2
Sub-Capability
1.1
Sub-Capability
2.1
Sub-Capability
2.2
Sub-Capability
3.1
Sub-Capability
4.1
Sub-Capability
4.2
Sub-Capability
6.1