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Materials for Lecture 19 PowerPoint Presentation
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Materials for Lecture 19

Materials for Lecture 19

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Materials for Lecture 19

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  1. Materials for Lecture 19 • Readings Chapter 14 • Lecture 19 Short Project Management.XLS • Lecture 19 Project Management.XLS • Lecture 19 Event Management.XLS

  2. Project Management • Project management involves estimating the length of time to complete a project • Once a project has been undertaken then a project manager is responsible for carrying out the project on the assigned time table • How do the managers establish a time schedule • Generally based on average length of time for each component • Average length of time based on past experience • Length of time to complete each step is a random variable

  3. Project Management • Who does project management? • Engineers, managers, accountants • They calculate number of days to completion • They do not incorporate risk most times • Benefits of incorporating risk into project management analysis • Assign a probability to number of days until project completion • Assign a probability to getting a project done in a fixed timeframe

  4. Project Management • KOV for a project management problem is: How long will it take? • There is no final answer until project is completed • Answer is an unknown PDF of days, weeks, or months to completion • Simulation provides a methodology for estimating unknown PDFs • Formulate the problem as a Monte Carlo simulation problem

  5. Project Management • Model formulation • KOV is Number of Days to completion • Identify each task (step) for project • Specify order of each task for the project • Identify bottlenecks where tasks will wait on precious stages • Determine the PDFs for number of days (or weeks, months, etc.) to complete each task • Use past performance to estimate parameters for PDF of days for each task • Depend on experts for time to complete each task • PDF may be dependent on resources available

  6. Project Management • Critical to identify the order of the tasks and their linkages (dependencies) • For example • Task 10 starts after Tasks 5 and 8 are completed • Task 11 starts after Task 10 is completed • Thus, Task 5 or 8 could hold up the whole project • If analysis shows 5 is the bottleneck is it worth investing more resources in Task 5 to get the project completed earlier?

  7. Project Management • Create a Project Network Diagram to summarize the order of tasks • Can be drawn in Excel with simple arrows and boxes • Network diagram shows potential bottlenecks

  8. Project Management • Tasks 1-6, 2 and 3 wait on 1, 4 waits on 2, 5 waits on 3 and 4, last task waits on 5 • Assumes new task starts the next day • Days in column C are GRKS() stochastic

  9. Project Management

  10. Spreadsheet of a Project Management Analysis

  11. Event Planner • Event planner KOVs • Number of days ahead to start planning an event • Cost of the event • Research application KOVs • Time to complete a research project • Cost of project • Wedding planner • Probability of being ready on time • Cost of the event • Banquet planner

  12. Event Planner