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Boeing Flight Testing

Boeing Flight Testing. Kelly Kimberling Kelsey LaRoche Tyde Sirk Michael Ulmen. Team input & Conflicts. Only one person can work on the model at once Weekly time spent on project was over 18 people hours Email good source of communication. Problem Description.

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Boeing Flight Testing

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  1. Boeing Flight Testing Kelly Kimberling Kelsey LaRoche Tyde Sirk Michael Ulmen

  2. Team input & Conflicts • Only one person can work on the model at once • Weekly time spent on project was over 18 people hours • Email good source of communication

  3. Problem Description • Estimating testing time with given resources is problematic • What is the probability of finishing the certification tests by a given date with given resources • What is the time between gates • This helps to find finish time after major delays

  4. Objective • Estimate two kinds of variability • Resource skill level • Failures/Delays/Visits from Murphy during testing

  5. Method • Discrete event simulation in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation using the simulation software Arena • Based on business rules • Many iterations with variation in each test • Allows visualization of the process with animation • Able to see what resources are spending the most time at ????

  6. Assumptions • Three people per team • Skill levels and pay are known and vary • Testing is planned to the individual level • Adequate fleet size to do all testing and/or multiple tests to a plane in parallel • Order/schedule of tests • Chances and distributions • Skill Distribution: 90/100/110

  7. Parts of Model • We will have shortcuts to each major part of the model

  8. Flight vs. ground tests • Flight tests have a set time but can be delayed for weather and ground prep delays • Ground tests have variable times based on resource skills and availability and what was discovered during testing

  9. Resource teams • Tests are performed by teams but we allocate individual tasks • Each team has members with different skill levels • System pulls workers • Fastest to slowest • Selected on preferred order based on speed of worker and availability • Could be pulled by some attribute/variable such as cost relative to speed

  10. Failures • Major delays to the project • Redesigns • % chance that varies each time • Minor delays to the project • Weather delays • Over allocated resources • Resource shortage

  11. Outcomes • How long will it take, not as point estimate, but as confidence interval and probability • 25 Workers • Fastest worker’s total hours: • Medium speed worker’s total hours: • Slowest worker’s total hours: • Labor Costs • Duration of process • Utilization

  12. Delays • In-air flight testing is go/no-go • Weather delays can prevent a test • % chance to delay a flight test due to weather • Changes with each test and iteration • Test duration is constant • While plane is waiting for concurrent tasks to finish

  13. Gates • Milestones • Record date reached • Helps find major risk of delay

  14. Impact on Stakeholders • If model is used • Customers can get a more realistic time frame on when to expect their planes • Boeing has a better idea knowing how long flight testing will take and expected costs (95% confidence interval) • Boeing will know how many workers they will need to complete a process in a more effective manner • Can put more workers at other tasks to speed up process

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