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Northern Forest Futures Project

Northern Forest Futures Project. USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station Southern Research Station State and Private Forestry Northeastern Area Association of State Foresters University of Missouri. Northern Forest Futures. A window on tomorrow's forests

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Northern Forest Futures Project

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  1. Northern Forest Futures Project USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station Southern Research Station State and Private Forestry Northeastern Area Association of State Foresters University of Missouri

  2. Northern Forest Futures • A window on tomorrow's forests • Revealing how today's trends and choices can change the future landscape of the North • Collaborative undertaking • Complements other efforts Introduction

  3. The North Minnesota Maine Maryland Missouri Introduction

  4. Forests and People 9% Interior West 20% forested North 42% forested 16% 41% Pacific Coast 37% forested South 40% forested 34% Northern Forests in Context

  5. Three Components of NFFP • Analysis of shared forest resource issues • Assessment of current forest conditions and recent trends • Projections of expected forest conditions 2010-2060 under alternative scenarios • Succession, growth, harvest • Land use change • Climate • Invasives, bioenergy, socio-economic factors Introduction

  6. Forest Resource Issues in the North • Dietzman, LaJeunesse, and Wormstead 2011. Scoping of issues in the forests of the Northeast and Midwest of the United States • Based on • 700 comments • 74 source documents • Primarily 2004-2009 Issues

  7. Stephen ShifleyFrancisco Aguilar Nianfu Song Susan Stewart David Nowak Dale Gormanson Keith Moser Sherri Wormstead Eric Greenfield

  8. Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators • Conservation of biological diversity • Maintenance of productive capacity of forest ecosystems • Maintenance of forest ecosystem health and vitality • Conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources • Maintenance of forest contributions to global carbon cycles • Maintenance and enhancement of long-term multiple socioeconomic benefits to meet the needs of societies • Legal, institutional and economic framework for forest conservation and sustainable management • Urban and community forests Sustainable Forest Criteria and Indicators

  9. Fragmentation: Interior Forest Percent of County Forest Area that is “Interior” Forest Source: Kurt Riitters Criterion 1: Biodiversity

  10. Increasing Volume Over Time Pennsylvania New York West Virginia Criterion 2: Productive capacity

  11. Jobs • 441,000 jobs • 40 percent of U.S. total in the sector • Average wage $43K • 16 fatalities/year Criterion 6: Socioeconomic benefits

  12. Summarization of 36 Indicators • Highly positive • Positive • Neutral • Negative • Highly negative

  13. Current Products • Forests of the Northern United States • Executive summary • Northern Forest Futures website • Outstanding data exploration tools for current conditions • http://nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/

  14. Interactive Data Tools http://nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/dashboard/

  15. Stay Tuned • Recreation Analysis • (Published in summer 2012) • Projections 2010-2060 • - Succession, growth, harvest • - Land use change • - Climate • - Invasives, bioenergy, socio-economic factors • (Published in 2013)

  16. Progress Report on Projection System Keith Moser, Projections Team Leader

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