1 / 25

Development of Resource Use Intensity A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios

Development of Resource Use Intensity A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios. Dominic Wittmer Thomas Lichtensteiger ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology. Motivation. Observation:

tyanne
Download Presentation

Development of Resource Use Intensity A Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Development of Resource Use IntensityA Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios Dominic Wittmer Thomas Lichtensteiger ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  2. Motivation Observation: historical transfer of mineral resources • extraction out of geosphere • accumulation in anthroposphere Projected consequence: today anthropogenic stocks are the raw materials of tomorrow Findings on “urban deposits”: • knowledge about is limited and random • lack of methods for their exploration – especially the trace elements Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  3. COPPER Motivation • Characteristics: • plasticity • electr. conductivity • therm. conductivity • warm colour • alloyability • recyclability Observation: historical transfer of mineral resources • extraction out of geosphere • accumulation in anthroposphere Projected consequence: today anthropogenic stocks are the raw materials of tomorrow Findings on “urban deposits”: • knowledge about is limited and random • lack of methods for their exploration – especially the trace elements Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  4. Methodical Procedure SUBSTANCE FLOW ANALYSIS characterising SURVEY OF THE STOCKS RECORDING growth curves DYNAMIC MODELLING (SFA) scenarios Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  5. Driving and driven – Perception of the Metabolism consequence flow-driven approach NEEDS demand for products demand for products FLOWS STOCKS stock-driven approach consequence Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  6. System Analysis: Regional copper management Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  7. Survey of the Stocks: Buildings Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  8. Structuring the Copper Stock in BuildingsRelevant Application Ranges and affiliated Product Groups Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  9. Survey of the Stocks: Buildings • Definition and determination of key sizes (per product group): • installation density • specific mass • copper concentration • frequency of products • frequency of the material (Cu) Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  10. Utilisation types & age classes yr of construction/renovation • partial stock withinthe building stock • 4 utilisation types • 4 age classes (per quarter) • 14 product groups Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  11. Copper Stocks in Buildings per Application Rangegiven in [kg/capita] rounded, divided into the four utilisation types, 2000 roofs (32) PRB OFB 6 8 OFB: one-family buildings MFB: multi-family buildings SB: service buildings PRB: production buildings SB 6 MFB 12 power systems (24) heating systems (13) sanitary systems (9) PRB SB OFB <1 PRB 2 PRB 3 1 6 OFB MFB OFB SB 2.5 6 5 1.5 SB MFB MFB 9 6 4 Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  12. Copper Stocks in Infrastructure per Application Rangegiven in [kg/capita], 2000 cables telecommunication network electricity network 74 kg/capita 16 kg/capita 88 kg/capita traffic 2 kg/capita transformers 5 kg/capita overhead power wires 9 kg/capita Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  13. Copper stock development shown by the example of one-family buildings 80 copper stock [in 1000 t] 70 60 50 40 30 I 20 II 10 III 0 IV IV III Elektroinstallation II Telekommunikation Quartale 25 a I Heizungsinstallation Sanitärinstallation Dachgaupen Blitzableiter Dachentwässerung Bedachung/Abdeckung product groups Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  14. results Stock Development Temporal Variability of the Frequency of Copper (fM)Example: heating pipes in panel heating, given in [%] market share copper cuprotherm Source: expert interviews (SELM 2002) and technical literature. Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  15. 180 180'000 Historical foreign trade statisticsData used for calibration of dynamic model Foreign Trade of Inhabitants Copper Goods 160 160'000 [1'000] [1'000 t/a] 140 140'000 120 120'000 Imports 100 100'000 80 80'000 Exports 60 60'000 40 40'000 20 20'000 Population 0 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 • Net Addition to Stock, 20th century • (incl. landfill) • rising from 1 to >10 kg/capita*a • now decoupling ? 13 Per-Capita 12 Net Imports of 11 Copper Goods 10 [kg/(capita*a)] 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  16. Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Results of the dynamic modelling 2000 1975 1950 1925 1900 original system: 56 system variables, 45 system parameters Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  17. results System Copper Household of Switzerland 1950 results of the dynamic modelling: snapshots in the 20th century 1900 Net Addition to Stock, per (capita*a) Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  18. -15kt discussion Scenario (I) Influence of Building Conversion on the Copper HouseholdScenario: production buildings (PB) → multi-family buildings (MFB) 400 318'000 t 351'000 t stock [1'000 t] (PB + MFB) 300 roofs sanitary systems heating systems telecomm.systems power systems 200 100 0 "Status Szenario quo" Ia gross floor area (GFA) roofage area (RA) given in [106 m2] PB GFA RA 261 118 „Conversion“ MFB GFA RA 414 134 675 252 Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  19. discussion Scenario(I) Copper Household of Switzerland, 2000Scenario: induced stock changes and flows, respectively stock change 80 [1'000 t] input 76 output 60 47 45 40 sheets pipes andraw armatures cables 31 25 20 7 0 roofs heating+watersystems elec.+telec.systems Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  20. discussion Dynamic Model Growth Curves of the Stocksgiven in [kg/capita] stocks in buildings (total) linear-logistic inorganic resources, incl. deposits environmental compartments Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  21. flow Fluss [kg/(capita*a)] “self supply” “use loss” Consequences 100 % 30-50% • self supply will about double within next 100yrs • „use losses“ to landfill will generally correlate with stock size • avg. life time: immovabels 40±20 a, movables 14±7a • prolongation (violet) 60±20 a, movables 20±7a • shortening (turqois) 30±10 a, movables 10±7a Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  22. Comparison of Total Copper Stock for Selected Regions CH USA, 1990 290 Stockholm, 1995 170 Sweden, 1999 140 Cape Town South Africa 2000 , ) ( 50 Welt, 2000 50 Welt, 1950 14 stocks [kg/capita] 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 N.B.: Stocks in landfills not considered for „Stockholm“ and „Schweden“, grey area for US. Sources: USA (Zeltner et al. 1999); Stockholm (Sörme et al. 2001); Schweden (Landner und Lindeström 1998); Cape Town (van Beers und Graedel 2003); Welt 2000; (Lichtensteiger 2002); Welt 1950 (Henstock 1996). Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  23. Roof Schweiz Sanitary systems Heating systems Telecommunication systems Power systems Stockholm Cape Town copper stock [kg/capita] 0 20 40 60 80 Regional Comparison of Copper Stock in Buildings Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  24. Conclusions • “Urban exploration” by combination of SFA, survey of stocks and retrospective modelling • Methodical results indicate that stock-driven approachare adequate for understanding and forecasts of long-living goods Outlook • Application of the exploration method on other substances • Drafts for a Zinc model are planned with methodical • emphasis on comparison between elements and countries Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

  25. Development of Resource Use IntensityA Retrospective Approach to Draft Scenarios Dominic Wittmer Thomas Lichtensteiger ETH Zurich – Swiss Federal Institute of Technology and Eawag – Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology Contact address: Dominic Wittmer d.wittmer@csd.ch CSD Holding AG, Switzerland Division of Environmental Geology, Contaminated Sites and Waste Deposits Sustainable Resource Management - SRM 2006, Brugge, 07.12.06

More Related