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The Confluence of Water Resources and National Security Where, why and how policy currents converge. Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman Transboundary Water Resources.

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the confluence of water resources and national security where why and how policy currents converge

The Confluence of Water Resources and National SecurityWhere, why and how policy currents converge.

Daene McKinney & Steve Pitman

Transboundary Water Resources

water resources national security
Water in the landscape (above and below ground) with current or potential value to the community and the environment.

- Western Australia

Water and Rivers Commission

Condition of a nation’s safety from threats, especially threats from external sources.

- McGraw Hill Online

Water Resources National Security
two perspectives
Water Resources professionals:

When and how will national security affect water resources?

National Security professionals:

When and how will water affect national security?

Two Perspectives:
analysis
Analysis:

Why, when & how have links developed?

CAUSES

Can we predict future occurrences?

INDICATORS

river basin case studies
River Basin Case Studies
  • Jordan
    • Syria, Israel, Jordan
  • Nile
    • Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt
  • Indus
    • India, Pakistan
  • Tigris-Euphrates
    • Turkey, Syria, Iraq
jordan basin
Jordan Basin
  • Post WWI – Mandates
  • 1948 – State of Israel
  • 1950’s – plans
  • 1960’s – conflicts
  • 1967 – Six Day War
  • PLO attacks
  • 1980’s threats
  • 1990’s treaties
  • 2000’s 2nd Intifadeh

www.glowa-jordan-river.de

jordan basin1
Jordan Basin
  • Politically charged
  • Population 10M+
    • double in 30 years
  • Already “water stressed”
  • Boundary issues
  • Allocation inequities

www.glowa-jordan-river.de

nile basin
Nile Basin
  • Interested in 3 of 9 basin countries
  • Egypt
    • Lowest riparian
    • Most dependent
    • Most powerful
    • Big US aid recipient
  • Ethiopia
    • Contributes most
    • Uses least
    • Poorest
  • Sudan – in between

www.thewaterpage.com

nile basin1
Nile Basin
  • Colonial cash-crop economies
  • 1929 Treaty
  • Century Storage Scheme
  • 1959 Treaty
  • Aswan High Dam
  • Cold War politics
  • Civil wars

www.thewaterpage.com

indus basin
Indus Basin
  • 1859-1915 - British build canals for flood control and irrigation
  • 1947 – Partition
    • India – key headwaters
    • Pakistan – bulk of canals and farmland
  • 1948 – India cuts flow, Pakistani crops fail, Pakistanis call for war
  • 1952-60 – World Bank mediation
  • Indus Water Treaty

earthtrends.wri.org

www.iucn.org

tigris euphrates basin
Tigris-Euphrates Basin
  • Earliest water conflicts
  • Turkey
    • Source of both rivers
    • GAP - $30B project
  • Syria very dependent on Euphrates
  • Iraq totally dependent on both rivers
  • 1975 – Crisis between Iraq and Syria
  • 1990 – Ataturk Dam

earthtrends.wri.org

analysis national security water resources linkage
AnalysisNational Security-Water Resources Linkage

Common Factors:

  • Arid areas w/ irrigated agriculture
  • Power imbalance (economic/military)
  • Presence of non-water disputes
  • Non-joint development
  • Outside influences*
causes national security water resources linkage
CAUSESNational Security-Water Resources Linkage
  • Jordan Basin
    • Conflict exists before water disputes
    • One state alters status by occupying territory
  • Nile Basin
    • Lower riparian completely dependent
    • Powerful country publicly announces link
  • Indus Basin
    • Water policy of one state affects interest of lower riparian
  • Tigris-Euphrates
    • Actions fuel unease over future possibilities
old indicators national security water resources linkage
(Old) INDICATORSNational Security-Water Resources Linkage
  • Unilateral development of international river –Postel & Wolf
  • Change in political boundaries creating new riparians -Wolf
  • Existing mechanisms unable to cope with changes -Wolf
postel wolf
Postel & Wolf :

Foreign Policy – September/October 2001

slide16

(New) INDICATORSNational Security-Water Resources Linkage

  • Previous retrospective indicators
    • Unilateral development of a basin
    • Change in political boundaries creating new riparians
  • New predictive indicators
    • Significant non-water-related tensions exist in the basin
    • At least one basin state’s water resources are vulnerable or nearly fully utilized
indicating linkages between water resources and national security
Indicating Linkages Between Water Resources and National Security
  • At least one indicator from each column implies conditions are present for a water resources-national security policy linkage
  • Three or four indicators present signifies higher likelihood of policy linkage
  • Uzbekistan found itself in the position where all four applied, so what did they do?
uzbek national security policy related to water
Uzbek National Security Policy Related to Water
  • Water became a National Security Policy issue
  • Decision taken to regarding water resources
    • Two new reservoirs built and infrastructure modernized
    • Invest hard currency
    • New water management regime
    • Required relinquish (some) authority
  • Provided sufficient new storage to capture winter Kyrgyz releases
  • Uncoupled the basin-wide interconnection between the countries
  • Provided a secure source of water for economic development