Irregular policies on regular migration?

1. Dhananjayan Sriskandarajahinstitute for public policy researchBULGARIA AND BRITAIN: A CHANGING RELATIONSHIPBulgarian Embassy, London, 28 February 2007 The UK’s response to Romanian and Bulgarian accession Irregular policies on regular migration?

2. A changing relationship • Migration is central to UK Bulgaria relationship • Dramatic rise in the movement of people • Estimates suggest more than 100 times increase in migrants since 2001 • Second most popular destination for migrants, most of whom go for short periods and few of whom actually work

3. Top 5 overseas property markets • Bulgaria 7,456 • Cyprus 5,261 • France 3,356 • Turkey 2,608 • Spain 23,834 Source: Total listings on three websites (http://www.worldofproperty.co.uk, http://www.homesoverseas.co.uk and http://www.property-abroad.com) on 13 October 2006.

4. Enlarging concerns • On paper, free movement within the EU is a good thing • Movement of people between UK and Bulgaria should be welcomed as part of European integration • Instead, despite evidence of positive impacts, we have restrictive approach towards labour migration • Understanding why these ‘irregular’ policies were adopted to manage such ‘regular’ flows is critical

5. Why the volte-face? • Rising public anxieties about immigration • The need for a ‘pause’ after A8 migration • Anxiety over numbers • Labour market impacts • Impacts on public services • Social cohesion being undermined • Need to be in control of migration • Other EU member policies

6. Rising net inflows

7. Rising EU25 inflows

8. Rising public anxieties Source: Ipsos MORI

9. A8: not so big news? Increase in the stock of migrants from A8 countries, 2003-2006 Source: Ruhs 2006 using LFS data, ONS

10. A8: evidence of circularity

11. Labour market impacts • A8 labour migration: young, dynamic, filling hard-to-fill jobs • Very little evidence of wage dampening; overall wage growth remains healthy • No robust link to rising unemployment • Evidence of a virtuous of high-growth, low inflation scenario • Reduction in illegal working • Some evidence of under-employment

12. Public Services and Social Cohesion • No ‘benefit shopping’ • Filling important public sector roles • Overall positive reception • Some anecdotal concerns of competition for resources (public services and work) • Migrants are moving to areas that have not traditionally experienced migration

13. Implications • Contradictions between ‘open’ access to the UK and ‘closed’ access to the labour market • May be implicitly promoting irregular working, driving down wages and fuelling vulnerability and criminality • Still open to media frenzy around impact of A2 migrants • UK Government may still end up looking ‘out of control’ • Endorse perceptions and discrimination about Romanians and Bulgarians • Undermines the principle and benefits of free movement

14. Dhananjayan Sriskandarajahinstitute for public policy researchBULGARIA AND BRITAIN: A CHANGING RELATIONSHIPBulgarian Embassy, London, 28 February 2007 The UK’s response to Romanian and Bulgarian accession Irregular policies on regular migration?