1 / 40

Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation

Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation. Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D. Stacy L. Willett, M.A. Associate Professors- Emergency Management Department of Public Service Technology The University of Akron. Discussion Topics. Definitions and Concepts Overview of Processes

travis
Download Presentation

Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Hazard Analysis: Elements, Process, and Variation Robert M. Schwartz, Ph.D. Stacy L. Willett, M.A. Associate Professors- Emergency Management Department of Public Service Technology The University of Akron

  2. Discussion Topics • Definitions and Concepts • Overview of Processes • Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Measurements • Hazard Analysis Variations • General • CARVER Method • Iowa Example

  3. Mitigation Hazard Analysis Risk Assessment Recovery Preparedness Response Hazard Analysis Model

  4. Hazards • Embraces a societal threat • Natural • Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) • Anthropogenic Intentional

  5. Profiling Hazards • Magnitude • Duration • Seasonal pattern • Speed of onset • Availability of warnings

  6. Vulnerability • Combination of risk and response • Lack of ability to respond or lack of response can increase vulnerability • Well-thought out plans aiding all segments of society can reduce vulnerability

  7. Determine Vulnerability • Risk: predicted impact a hazard would have on people, services, and specific facilities in the community • Quantifying risk • Surveying risk

  8. Risk • Combination of: • 1. Probability that an event will occur • 2. Consequences of its occurrence • Risk= probability of occurrence x vulnerability • DHS Formula: terrorism Risk=Asset Value x Threat Rating x Vulnerability Rating

  9. Quantifying Risk • Identify elements of the community potentially at risk from a specific hazard • Develop response priorities • Assign severity ratings • Compile risk data into community risk profiles

  10. Surveying Risk • Priority 1: Life Safety • Priority 2: Essential facilities • Priority 3: Critical infrastructure

  11. Prioritizing Risks • Assign each hazard a severity rating or risk index • Predicts expected damage from hazard • Quantifies expected impact of hazard on people, essential facilities, property, and response assets

  12. Asset-Based and Geographically Based Risk Analysis • Asset Based: • Threat: adversary’s intent to attack specific target and capability to execute attack • Vulnerability: vulnerability of specific asset to specific type of attack Consequences: results from loss of particular type of asset given specific type of attack Geographically Based: • Threat: linked to particular geographic area • Vulnerability: intrinsic vulnerabilities of an area to attack related to geography or other attributes • Consequences: broad consequences to area’s population or economy following an attack

  13. Hazard Analysis • Identifies: • Incidence of particular hazards • Severity of hazards • Probability of reoccurrence • Examines full range of hazards • Natural • Anthropogenic Non-Intentional (Technological) • Anthropogenic Intentional (Civil/Political)

  14. Additional Considerations in Hazard Assessment • Other conditions may increase the estimated severity of a hazard • Population density • Sheltering facilities • Special populations • Seasonal business • Cultural differences (such as language barriers)

  15. HA: Used to Lessen Critical Facility Impact • First of four phases • Is it? • Impact is reduced, deflected or avoided • Recognizing hazards and impacts • Protect facilities and service delivery • What are some critical facilities? Does their placement conflict with the hazard assessment data? • Should inform placement!

  16. Hazard and Vulnerability Analysis • What can occur • Recurrence interval • Potential damage • Impacts to the community • Vulnerability of community to specific hazard

  17. Hazard Analysis/Risk Assessment Risk assessment involves researching the hazards that threaten the community and ranking them according to the risks they pose and the areas and infrastructure that are vulnerable to damage from an event involving the hazards. The outcome is a written hazard analysis that quantifies the overall risk to the community from each hazard. • List of Hazards Identify Hazards Profile Hazards • Magnitude • Frequency • Geographic extent • Duration • Seasonal patterns • Speed of onset Develop Environment/ Community Profile • Quantify Risk • Set Response Priorities • Assign Severity Index • Prioritize Risks Determine Vulnerability • Geography • Assets • Property • Infrastructure • Demographics • Response Organizations Apply Scenarios • Initial warning • Potential total impact • Sector specific impacts • Overall consequences • Response actions and resources • needed

  18. Severity Ratings

  19. Hazard:___________________

  20. Hazard: Tornado

  21. Hazard Example: Terrorism

  22. Hazard Example: Structure Fire

  23. Hazard Example: Radiological Incident

  24. Prioritized Results • Tornado 2.4 • Terrorism 2.4 • Radiological Incident 2.8 • Structure Fire 2.0 • Catastrophic • Critical • Limited • Negligible

  25. Example of Risk Overview Chemical Spill Pandemic Flood Tornado Nuclear Plant Earthquake Lightning High Little concern Moderate Concern Major Concern Immediate and Severe Concern Medium Probability of Occurrence Low Low Medium High Severity of Consequences

  26. Scenarios • Helps to identify situations that may exist in a disaster • Used to help ensure preparedness if hazard occurs

  27. Scenario Composition • Initial warning • Potential overall impact • Potential impact on specific sectors • Potential consequences (damage, casualties, loss of services) • Action and resources necessary

  28. FEMA Emergency Planning (IS-235) Unit Three

  29. HAZUS Hazard loss estimating software Floods, earthquakes, hurricanes Physical damage Economic loss Social impacts

  30. CARVER + Shock Software Adapted from military version (CARVER) Used to assess vulnerabilities or infrastructure within a system to attack Manufacturing and Agricultural versions Available from FDA

  31. CARVER + Shock Assessment Six attributes to evaluate potential of target Criticality: measure of public health and economic impacts of attack Accessibility: ability to physically access and egress target Recuperability: ease of system to recover Vulnerability: ease of accomplishing attack Effect: amount of direct loss from attack measured by production loss Recognizability: ease of identifying target

  32. Shock Combined health, economic, and psychological impacts of attack Potential impacts (even national) Psychological impacts increased if historical, cultural, religious, or symbolic significance Impacts increased if victims “sensitive” populations such as children or elderly Economic damage such as lower economic activity, higher unemployment

  33. CARVER + Shock Rankings Lower vulnerability (1-2) Higher vulnerability (9-10) Evaluate each attribute “Interview” and process flow diagram method Total scores range from 7-70 User can determine most vulnerable parts of infrastructure and prioritize most susceptible areas

  34. Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment Multi-step process Identify hazards Community profile Profile hazard events Cascading event (secondary hazards) Prioritize hazards

  35. Iowa HA Model : Measure Criticality and Vulnerability Separately The criticality assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specificcriteria. The criticality subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the X-axis of a coordinate system.

  36. Iowa Model: Vulnerability Calculation The vulnerability assessment is a process designed to systematically identify and evaluate important systems and infrastructure as it relates to the factors in the table below. The process identifies exposures in physical structures, personnel protection systems, and production processes. Each of the sub-elements is given a score based on a scale of 1 through 5 dependent upon specificcriteria. The vulnerability subtotal is converted to a percentage and then graphed along the Y-axis of a coordinate system.

  37. Chart (X=Criticality, Y= Vulnerability) Quadrant I High Criticality & High Vulnerability Quadrant IV High Vulnerability & Low Criticality Vulnerability (Y) Quadrant III Low Vulnerability & Low Criticality Quadrant II High Criticality & Low Vulnerability Criticality (X) Asset Score = [Criticality, Vulnerability] = [((x/175)*100), ((y/75)*100)] = [X, Y]

  38. Conclusion • While Hazard Analysis is a general concept, it is flexible in complexity and measurements • There are many variations of hazard analysis depending on the c0mmunity focus • Hazard Analysis should be conducted annually for resource and preparedness assessment

  39. Sources FEMA IS-235: http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/downloads/IS235.pdf HAZUS: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_training.shtm CARVER+Shock: http://www.fda.gov/Food/FoodDefense/CARVER/default.htm Iowa Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment: http://www.iowahomelandsecurity.org/Partners/CountyCoordinators/Planning/IowaHazardAnalysisandRiskAssessment/tabid/161/Default.aspx

More Related