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WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting Geneva, 15-18 N ovember , 2004. CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana Slovenia. Weather, Climate and Farmers. OBSERVED CHANGE. Observed Global Temperature Change 1861-2003.

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CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW


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climate change it is not too late if farmers act now

WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting

Geneva, 15-18November, 2004

CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW

Lučka Kajfež Bogataj

University of Ljubljana

Slovenia

slide5
Annual surface temperature trends for periods 1901 to 2000, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and 1976 to 2000 (°C/decade)

Source: Folland et al. (2001)

more than global warming
More than Global Warming

Changes in Extremes

Summer 2003 in Europe

slide7

Regional temperature change 1900 to 2000

Models are based on physics and not history. Match is because climate must obey the laws of physics.The warming since 1950 is not natural…

North America

Asia

Europe

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

Temperature change C

2000

1900

2000

1900

2000

1900

observations

model natural factors

model natural + human factors

Computer models versus observations: finding a human signal

slide9

Global Temperature 1000 – 2100 AD (IPCC)

6.0

Projections

4.0

Observations (instrumental)

Change (°C) from 1961-90 average

2.0

Observations (proxy data)

0.0

2000

1500

1000

slide11

IPCC Data Distribution Centrehttp://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk

Provides climate and related data,

impact and adaptation assessment

with emphasis on the needs of developing countries

-climate model projections and observed climate data

-socio-economic baseline and scenario data

-other environmental information (atm. composition, sea level)

-supporting documentation and guidance material

slide13

Hard copies available

http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/asres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html

slide15

General Circulation Model

Regional climate model

Climate change scenario

spatial

variability

Crop

model

model

uncertainties

Large area model

crop

forecast

for future

output

processing

slide16

http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.phphttp://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php

slide17

http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.phphttp://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vulnerability_and_adaptation/items/570.php

changes in rainfall with doubled co 2 csiro model

Change in

frequency

(%)

Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2(CSIRO model)

160

40°N

40°S

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

–20

0.2-0.4

0.4-0.8

0.8-1.6

1.6-3.2

3.2-6.4

6.4-12.8

12.8-25.6

>25.6

Daily rainfall class (mm day

)

–1

cascade of uncertainty
Cascade of uncertainty

High confidence

  • CO2 concentration
  • Global-mean sea level
  • Global-mean temperature
  • Regional temperatures
  • Regional temperature extremes
  • Regional precipitation
  • Cloud cover
  • Climatic variability / extremes

Low confidence

the climate change affects on agriculture
The climate change affects on agriculture
  • Productivity(quantity and quality)
  • Agricultural practices(changes of water use, agricultural inputs -herbicides, insecticides, fertilizers)
  • Environmental level(frequency and intensity of soil drainage -nitrogen leaching, soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity)
  • Rural space(loss of cultivated lands, land speculation, land renunciation, hydraulic amenities)
several changing parameters impact agriculture
Several changing parameters impact agriculture
  • a direct effect is the composition of the earth atmosphere :CO2 and ozone (CH4, NO2 and CFC to have no impact on physiological processus).
  • some indirect effects are climate parameters resulting from climate change : temperature, insolation, rainfall, humidity
  • other indirect effects are the side effects due to the climatic changes : increase of the sea level, changes in ocean currents, tornadoes..
slide25

Additional People at Risk of Hunger

under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios,

(Parry, et al. in Global Environmental Change, 2004)

200

180

160

140

120

Additional Millions of People

100

80

60

40

20

0

2020

2050

2080

A2 - Regional Enterprise

B2 - Local Stewardship

key impacts on wheat yields for different regions
Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions

% Yield

N. England

+

0

-

S. Europe

0.5

1.0

Deg C

N. India

Local food production ?

Regional food security ?

Global food security ?

slide27

Why farmers in developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change1)Impacts are worse

Coastal

vulnerability

Closer to margin of tolerance

Economic

structure

Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure

2) Lower capacity to adapt

Availability of

technology

Institutional capacity

Know-how

and education

Financial

capacity

climate sensitivity functions of the us and india mendelsohn and dinar 2000
Climate Sensitivity Functions of the US and IndiaMendelsohn and Dinar (2000)

0

US Response Function

-0.2

Impact on Farm Value/Net Income (billions of US $)

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

India Response Function

-1.0

-1.2

-1.4

-1.6

0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Temperature Change, oC

mitigation

MITIGATION

no uncertainty on the need to stabilize GHG concentration in atmosphere

need to initiate mitigation urgently

agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases

Replace

Remove

Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials

Atmospheric C to store

in soils and

perennial crops

Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases

Reduce

Greenhouse gas

emissions

opportunities for mitigation in agriculture
Opportunities for mitigationin agriculture
  • Carbon sequestration(possibly increasing N2O)
    • Land management (tillage, irrigation management, fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating fallow)
    • Land use change to grassland, forest
  • Emission reduction: CO2, N2O, methane
    • Energy emissions(direct, induced energy use)
    • Livestock: enteric fermentation, manure management
    • Bio-energy products, renewables (reduces energy CO2 emissions)
ghg mitigation potential from agriculture
GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture
  • Sink Enhancing
  • Management Practices
  • Increase no-till
  • Decrease summerfallow
  • Increase hay in crop rotation
  • Improve grazing management
  • Increase permanent cover
  • Increase shelterbelts
  • GHG Source-Reducing
  • Management Practices
  • Improve nutrient management
  • Improve feeding management
  • Improve manure management
reduce remove replace respond

Replace

Remove

Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based energy, chemicals and materials

Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial crops

REDUCE, REMOVE, REPLACE + RESPOND

Reduce

Greenhouse gas

emissions

Respond

The climate is goingto change requiring adaptation

Agricultural

GHG

Management

adaptation

ADAPTATION

‘adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their impacts …

...to moderate damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change’

concept of adaptation in agriculture

Concept of adaptation in agriculture

Adaptation refers to responses by

individuals,

groups and

governments

to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects

to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential,

or to realize opportunities

associated with climate change (Dolan et al., 2001).

Responses should be beneficial regardless of how or whether climate changes

adaptation options

Adaptation Measure

Adjustment Time (years)

Variety Adoption

3-14

Dams and Irrigation

50-100

Variety Development

8-15

Tillage Systems

10-12

Opening New Lands

3-10

Irrigation Equipment

20-25

Fertilizer Adoption

10

Adaptation Options
  • Possible at various levels - farmer, economic agent, macro
  • Potential and costs of adaptation - possibly through historic analysis of technology penetration
  • Reilly and Schimmelpfenng (1999) show the relative speed of adoption of various measures:
slide38

Climate adaptation

should be iterative

adaptation options t echnique n eeds

Adaptation options (+technique needs)

Development and adoption of new technologies

Promotion of agriculture extension services

Improving water management

Improving farm management

Diversification of income earning and employment opportunities

Institutional planning and implementation

Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity including investment and accumulation of capital.

slide41
Development and adoption of new technologies
  • Mechanical innovations

- irrigation

- conservation tillage

- integrated drainage systems

  • Crop breeding (“climate” resistant varieties)

- improved resistance to changing diseases and insects

- heat and drought resistant crop varieties

- use of traditional varieties bred for storm and drought resistance

- investment in seed banks

  • Biotechnology
slide42

Biotechnology:

Splicing in a gene to raise the max T of photosynthesis

(tobacco with gene from Arabidosis thaliana)

Genetically

modified

slide43
Promotion of agriculture extension services

key role in promoting agriculture productivity in developing countries

Improving water management

  • better water distribution strategies
  • changing crop and irrigation schedules to use rainfall

more effectively

  • improving irrigation technologies
  • water recycling and the conjunctive use of groundwater
  • water price
slide44
Improving farm management
  • changing farm production practices
  • diversification of crop and livestock varieties
  • replacement of plant types, cultivars and animal breeds with climate resistant new varieties
  • altering the intensity of fertilizer, pesticide application
  • modernization and improving farm level managerial capacity:altering capital and labor inputs to reduce risks

Diversification of income earning andemployment opportunities

  • alternative livelihood options need to be encouraged
  • income diversification
  • off farm activities (trading home produced goods, providing services)
institutional planning and implementation
Institutional planning and implementation
  • Institutional reforms(to achive decision-making structures that support long term planning and enhance adaptations to both short and long term climate impacts)
  • The governments need to reverse declining investments in agricultural research and extension
  • Improved training and general education of populations dependent on agriculture
slide46
Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive capacity, including investment and accumulation of capital
  • The adjustment of capital (and labor) inputs can

help farmers to make the necessary adaptations

  • Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting changes in prices, mask the climate change signal in the marketplace
  • Food programs and other social security programs

to provide insurance against supply changes

slide47

Cost of

impacts

Cost of

mitigation

more

less

more

less

What do we know about the connections between mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?

All

mitigation

Mix of

mitigate/

adapt/

impact

All adaptation

No action

Cost of

adaptation

less

more

(Holdridge diagram)

conclusions
CONCLUSIONS

Agrometeorologist should help farmers maketransition from “passive acceptance” of climate change by equipping them to make an “active response”

Both agrometeorologists and farmers should realize as soon as possible that

  • The past may not longer be a good guide
  • for the future.
  • Adaptation cannot be a substitute mitigation