World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

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  1. World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts Lockup Briefing June 11, 2014

  2. World Wheat Production June 11, 2014

  3. Wheat is grown across much of Europe, with the big hitters being France, U.K., Germany, and Poland. The EU collectively is the globe’s largest wheat producer. June 11, 2014

  4. Rapeseed is also grown across much of central and northern Europe, and has expanded into the Balkans. The EU is the largest rapeseed producer globally. June 11, 2014

  5. Germany Daily Temperature Departure (°C) The unseasonable warmth prevailed across most of the continent, including Germany (shown here) as well as Poland and the U.K. June 11, 2014

  6. In Germany, a crop that normally flowers in June was flowering in mid-May. ~2013-14 Flower Date Normal ~Flower Date June 11, 2014

  7. U.K. Ireland Neth. Poland Bel. Germany Czech Slovakia Austria Switz Hungary France Romania Italy Serbia Bulgaria Spain Port. Greece Virtually every major wheat and rapeseed area received near- to above-normal rainfall during May. June 11, 2014

  8. U.K. Ireland Neth. Poland Bel. Germany Czech Slovakia Austria Switz Hungary France Romania Italy Serbia Bulgaria Spain Port. Greece Currently, the VHI has improved markedly in most major wheat and rapeseed areas. Exceptions are Spain (early end to water year), Italy (planting intentions) and Serbia (flooding). June 11, 2014

  9. Change in Wheat Production In thousand tons Total EU production change +1.4 million tons Data Source: USDA June 11, 2014

  10. Europe: June 2014 Rapeseed Production Changes Rapeseed changes (1,000 tons) June 11, 2014

  11. World Wheat Supply and Use June 11, 2014

  12. U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  13. World Rice Production June 11, 2014

  14. World Rice Supply and Use June 11, 2014

  15. U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice June 11, 2014

  16. World Corn Production June 11, 2014

  17. Source: State Statistical Committee June 11, 2014

  18. MinAg reports sown area at 4.78 mha, virtually matching last year’s level. Final sown area for 2013 was reported by SSC at 4.89 mha. June 11, 2014 Source: Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food

  19. Wheat production is dominated by mid-sized agricultural enterprises. June 11, 2014 Source: State Statistical Committee

  20. Corn production is dominated by larger agricultural enterprises. June 11, 2014 Source: State Statistical Committee

  21. Yield dipped in both 2010 and 2012 due to excessively high mid-summer temperatures as the corn crop was advancing through the heat-sensitive reproductive stage. June 11, 2014 Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield)

  22. Hybrid seed imports through April have surpassed last year’s level by 42 percent. June 11, 2014 Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield)

  23. World Corn Supply and Use June 11, 2014

  24. June 11, 2014

  25. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  26. World Soybean Production June 11, 2014

  27. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  28. World Cotton Production June 11, 2014

  29. 2013/14 2014/15 Change from Change from estimate forecast May 2013/14 Million Bales Percent Percent 1.1 10.0 Beginning stocks 90.0 99.0 0.4 -1.9 Production 118.1 115.9 0.7 3.2 Total Supply 208.2 214.9 0.4 2.2 Consumption 109.8 112.3 -2.0 -13.3 Trade 41.0 35.6 1.0 3.8 Ending Stocks 99.0 102.7 Addendum: 0.4 0.7 China Ending Stocks 60.3 60.8 World Cotton Supply and Use June 11, 2014

  30. U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  31. Percent Texas Cotton Abandonment1981-2013 2011 2013 1998 1992 2006 1986 June 11, 2014 Source: USDA

  32. Lubbock, Texas, Cumulative Rainfall (Inches) January 2011 – May 2014 2013 Drought 2012 Drought 2011 Drought June 11, 2014

  33. Contiguous U.S. 48% D0 – D4 37% D1 – D4

  34. Southwest Cotton AbandonmentBased on Texas Drought Conditions June 11, 2014

  35. Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  36. U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  37. U.S. Meat Production and Prices June 11, 2014

  38. U.S. Milk Supply and Demand June 11, 2014

  39. U.S. Dairy Product Prices June 11, 2014

  40. U.S. Production Summary June 11, 2014

  41. Domestic Demand Summary June 11, 2014

  42. U.S. Export Summary June 11, 2014

  43. Price Summary June 11, 2014