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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. Lockup Briefing April 9, 2014. World Wheat Production. World Wheat Supply and Use. World Corn and Wheat Exports Trade Years*. *Corn trade year October-September. Wheat trade year July-June.

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world agricultural outlook board interagency commodity estimates committee forecasts

World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

Lockup Briefing

April 9, 2014

world corn and wheat exports trade years
World Corn and Wheat ExportsTrade Years*

*Corn trade year October-September. Wheat trade year July-June.

Source: USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Grains:World Markets and Trade, March 10, 2014

April 9, 2014

slide10

Brazil 2013/14 Corn SummaryApril 2014

*Indicates a record

April 9, 2014

brazil corn first season compared to second season
Brazil Corn: First-season compared to Second-season

First-season Corn

Second-season Corn

Planting began in Feb. 2014.

High cost of production and low prices result in unprofitability.

Area down 0.7 Mhafrom last year.

Rains in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias and Mato Grosso have increased yield potential.

Corn production for export market.

  • Planting began in September 2013.
  • Area down 0.4 Mha from last year.
  • Crop is harvested.
  • Some damage from heat and drought.
  • Corn production used by livestock industry.

April 9, 2014

slide12

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Average

2012/13

2013/14

Since Last

Meeting

2nd Corn (DERAL)

99% Planted

Mar 30: 82% vegetative

14% flowering

3% filling

92% Good / 1% Poor

April 9, 2014

slide13

1

2

3

April 9, 2014

3 toledo parana brazil

Second-crop corn

3. Toledo, Parana, Brazil

Satellite-derived vegetation health indicates conditions for 2013/14 (RED) are similar to 2012/13 season (YELLOW) for corn in Parana.

Corn yields are forecast similar to last year’s 4.83 tons per hectare.

Critical flowering and grainfill stages for second-crop corn are expected in late April and early May.

April 9, 2014

south africa s grain basket
South Africa’s Grain Basket

Approximately 50% of production is divided between east and west.

East: Higher yields & less corn area

West: Lower yields & greater corn area

Gautang

North West

Mpumalanga

Free State

April 9, 2014

lower yields in the west
Lower Yields in the West

Lower yields in the west due to lower rainfall and low plant density from wide row spacings (>1.5-meters).

April 9, 2014

16

slide17
Monthly Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa) AnomalyDerived from Thermal Band on MODIS sensor Percent of Average (2001-2010)

Mar, 2014

Feb, 2014

Dec, 2013

Jan, 2014

Source: FEWSNET/USGS

Africa: http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/africa/index.phpGlobal:  http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/global/index.php

April 9, 2014

17

slide18

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

2013/14

Average

2012/13

April 9, 2014

north west province modis ndvi time series
North West Province: MODIS-NDVI Time Series

April 9, 2014

Source: USDA/NASA GLAM Project http://glam1.gsfc.nasa.gov/

19

slide24

Brazil 2013/14 Soybean SummaryApril 2014

*Indicates a record

April 9, 2014

slide25

Hot and dry in early February 2014.

About 40 percent of production.

April 9, 2014

u s export summary
U.S. Export Summary

April 9, 2014

price summary
Price Summary

April 9, 2014