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Magnetic Fusion Power Development for Global Warming Suppression Jiangang Li1 (firstname.lastname@example.org), Jie Zhang2, Xuru Duan31. Institute of Plasma Physics,CAS, 2. Shanghai Jiaotong University 3. South West Institute of Physics, CNNC 22nd FEC, Oct.13-18, 2008, Geneva
Content • Energy Needs in 21st Century • Revolution of Energy Sources • Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development • Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy
Energy Needs over the World 29.01 Billion TCE 16.13 Billion TCE 2005—2050，average annual growth rate is 1.3% IEA2005
Energy Needs in India 1.86 Billion TCE 0.77 Billion TCE IEA2005
Energy Needs in China 5.00(6) Billion TCE 1.68 Billion TCE (75% coal at moment and about 60% in 2050) IEA2005
Total Final Consumption by Fuel CO2 Emissions by Fuel Mtoe Mt of CO2 Global Warming Becomes MoreApparent Evolution from 1971 to 2004 of World CO2 Emissions Increase with Fuel Consumption IEA2005
8 Global Warming Becomes More Apparent • China’s CO2 emission (5.06 billion ton) • 2nd largest in the world • 18% of the total amount • Below the world average level per capita IEA2005
What if Greenland Breakup and Melt Away ? Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt in 1992 Now The Sea level Today Forecast If Greenland breakup and melt away The sea level will rise
Revolution of Energy SourcesEfforts Made in China Climate Change Technology Innovation to Reduce CO2 Emission Low Carbon Economy Near Zero Emission IGCC (Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle) CO2 capture and sequestration Energy Technology R&D Reduce the cost of wind and solar power generation 4th generation nuclear power technique & fusion energy Alternate fuels for transportation Hydrogen energy
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Efforts Made in China Roadmap for Renewable Energy Power Technology-20% in 2050 1Mw 5Mw 8-10Mw Onshore demonstration and generalize Wind Offshore demonstration and generalize 10Mw 100Mw Photovoltaic generation plant demonstration connected to the grid Solar 10-100Mw Solar heat power plant demonstration connected to the grid Gasification power plant demonstration and generalize Biomass Combustion power plant demonstration and generalize Geothermic heat pump, refrigeration, power generation demonstration and generalize Continuously develop Hydro 2020 Large-scale development for wind power, steady development for biomass power 2030 Breakthrough for solar power, form an integrate renewable industry chain 2050 Renewable energy play a leading role
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Efforts Made in China Roadmap for Advanced Nuclear Power Technology-15% in 2050 Promotion of 2nd plus fission reactor Demonstration of 3rd advanced PWR Promotion of 3rd advanced PWR Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of PWR Tryout depleted fuel reprocessing of fast reactor Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for fast reactor Nuclear Commercial depleted fuel reprocessing for PWR Fast reactor module 4th generation of commercial nuclear fast reactor Demonstration of fast reactor Demonstration of fusion reactor Commercial fusion reactor 2020 Commercialization of 3rd generation nuclear power 2030 3rd generation nuclear power bulk-built & fast reactor module established 2050 Fast reactor Steady developed & fusion energy breakthroughs made
Efforts Made in China • Accounts for15% of total installed electric capacity • Replace 1billon ton of coal • Formation of thermal reactor - fast reactor binarynuclear power system 400! • Accounts for8% of total installed electric capacity • Replace 0.4billon ton of coal • Develop nuclear power plant built in coastal area , east and central of China • Accounts for5% of total installed electric capacity • Replace0.18 billon ton of coal • Develop nuclear power plant in coastal area 200 60
6% 17% 8% 28% 41% Efforts Made in China Without control With control
Can We make Contribution by Fusion Energy Development An environmentally responsible source ofalmost limitless energy Fusion Scientist: Making a “Sun” on Earth
Can Fusion Play a Role in This Century How? 5 % of total primary energy Fusion power plant in 2100 China : 150 India : 150 EU : 50 US : 50 Japan : 30 KOREA: 20 Total: 450 GW plant When? 2018-2038 ITER 2030-2050 DEMO 2040-2060 Proto-Type 2050-- First Power Plant 2060: 5-7 GW power plant 2070: 35 2080 70 2090 140 2100 280 (x3=450!)
Questions • – How long will it take? Next 50 years • – Why’s it taking so long? Technical difficulties, limited financial and human resources • Do we really need another (moving) 50 years? It took only 8 years for US land on moon in 60s! • –Can we strengthen and accelerate the path to fusion power?
Accelerating the Development of Fusion Energy New era of Fusion : Significant progresses have been achieved within 50 years ITER, broader approach, new superconducting devices in Asia, urgent need for new generation of energy. More serious consideration of DEMO GAP analysis, Road map, FAST track…
GAP Analysis: 30-35 years to Demo 10 year 10 years 10 years 10 years 10 years Build ITER Run ITER Build Run Build + IFMIF +IFMIF DEMO DEMO proto-type
Can we Speed Up Fusion Development • A successful ITER project via strong international cooperation • Start IFMIF site decision as soon as possible • Start DEMO design with strong industry involvement now • Most important is to demonstration of electricity generation within 20 years with reduced mission
Expanded International Cooperation ITER JET, JT-60U, JT-60SA ASDEX-U, DIII-D, HL-2A(M), C-Mod EAST, KSTAR, Tore-Supra MAST, NSTX, SST-1, HT-7, TCV, TEXTOR, FTU LHD, W7-X IFMIF(?) Small tokomaks Total: about 1 B $/year exclude ITER ITER JET-class KSATR-class MAST-U-class LHD-class IFMIF Small tokomaks Total: less than 1 B $/y ! Necessary test facilities: magnets, H& CD , remote handling, heat flux.. A CTF
Electricity generation No need real steady state Burning plasma control Sufficient T Breeding As a CTF H2 production Testing tokamak system availability (reliability, buildability,operability and maintainability) Pfusion~200MW, t = a few hours to weeks Based on existing technologies: Option 1: Pure Fusion A FDF-class with SC coils Or: A ST-type compact device Option 2: Fusion –Fission hybrid Fusion: Q=1-3, P=30-50MW Fission: M= 20-30, Pt = 0.3-1.5GW Or: ITER-type machine with different blanket: Pt =5GW, Pe=1.5GW EDEMO (within 20 years?)Electricity generation with reduced mission
A More Bold Approach is Needed Why? 天时：Very urgent need for new energy (especially for developing country), fusion is one of very few options and easily convinced by public. 地利：ITER starts in Caderache, fusion need in Korea, Russia, especially China and India. 人和: Wide cooperation in fusion lasted for 50 years and will be strengthen in future.
A More Bold Approach is Needed How? • A quick decision on IFMIF: Site, construction, operation, on schedule! • Early establishment of DEMO/EDEMO design groups with strong involvement from industry • Based on global cooperation (better not fully joint project) • Well organized global teams (EU,US,CN.. Could be a few DEMOs)
ASIPP Efforts from China • Very Strong Supports from top leaders to public • Start a new MCF program • ITER-CN with industry • Domestic MCF China needs fusion more urgent and would like to be the first user of fusion energy 24
Summary • Fusion development comes to a new era with significant progress during past 50 years. • It is too long to wait for another 50 year to get electricity by fusion. • A much more aggressive approach should be taken with even greater international collaboration towards the early use of fusion energy to meet the urgent needs for energy and global warming suppression.