Global Warming for Dummies . Robert D. Cormia Summer 2006. Presentation Goals. Explain the greenhouse effect Show current / future CO 2 trends Affect of rising temperatures on earth 10 key energy challenges to solve Economic opportunity of ‘energy equity’
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Robert D. Cormia
It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll
burn the next trillionin less than 30 years – why should you care?
Devin Cormia ‘The Gaia Hypothesis’ Carlmont High School AP Bio Term Project 2005
Carbon emissions can be used to predict atmospheric CO2
with 99% confidence using simple linear regression data
- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4*M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
0F -Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in 25 years
Calculations are based on cumulative carbon burned and GISS 2005 forcing model
The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
NASA schematic view of ocean circulation. The light colored path shows the general movement of the surface waters and the dark colored path shows the movement of water at depth. The numbers show the position of: 1. The Gulf Stream which transports heat from the tropics to northern Europe. 2. North Atlantic Deep Water formation which results from strong cooling. 3. Antarctic Bottom Water formation due to sea ice production around Antarctica.
Antarctic holds >80%
of earth’s fresh water
Like the Arctic, it
moderates the climate
CO2 benefits plants only if temperatures rise significantly
in late August 2005
finds warm water
in the Gulf of Mexico
And grows from a
category 1 to a
category 5 hurricane
in less than 2 days!
Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
The energy industry has quietly acknowledged the seriousness of the situation. For instance, the president of Exxon Mobil Exploration Company, Jon Thompson, recently stated:
“By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending.”http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Our Solar Power Future – The US Photovoltaics Industry
Roadmap Through 2030 and beyond – published in 2005
‘California, the Solar State’
* 10% of 100M households in the US, total cost of about $250 billion (subsidized)
61 / 70 MPG
Seating for two
1 liter - 3 cylinders
All aluminum body
Gas Electric Synergy Drive™ - ‘plug-in hybrids’ coming soon
Tons of carbon per person – year 2000 average = 1.1
8 billion people @ 1.25 tons each = 10 G tons of carbon / year
That is 50% more carbon emissions than today!
*Based on 20 million barrels of oil per day, of which 9.6 million are used for gasoline
H2 / fuel cells
We can do this, but the clock is running!