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FY14 JCSDA AMV PROJECT. 1. COPC Action Item 2013-1.8: Coordinate an update to be briefed to the next COPC by the JCSDA describing collaborative efforts to improve the exploitation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs). Update #1:

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fy14 jcsda amv project
FY14 JCSDA AMV PROJECT

1

COPC Action Item 2013-1.8: Coordinate an update to be briefed to the next COPC by the JCSDA describing collaborative efforts to improve the exploitation of atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs).

  • Update #1:
  • Goal is to optimize the forecast impact from AMVs in the NOAA global forecast system, leveraging past experiments performed by NRL and GMAO exploring the differential impact of these data.
  • JCSDA will lead coordination of partner contributions to test advanced processing of AMVs.
  • Partners include NCEP and NESDIS and, likely, NASA/GMAO, NRL/MMD, and U. Wisc/CIMMS.
  • Preliminary discussions have been initiated with NASA and Navy. Tentative plans include:
    • GMAO will contribute to the design and evaluation of data impact experiments for measuring effectiveness of new techniques;
    • NRL/MMD will contribute techniques for processing, screening, superobing/thinning, and assimilating AMV data, with assistance from U. of Wisc/CIMMS;
    • NESDIS will ensure operational availability of upgraded AMV data products using imagery from both polar orbiting and geostationary platforms;
    • NCEP/EMCwill be responsible for improving assimilation techniques for the AMVs and final testing and maintenance of code upgrades in the NCEP GDAS.
  • JCSDA will provide supercomputer resources for development and testing of NOAA systems.

CSAB recommends keeping this action opened.

slide2

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

FNMOC and GMAO Observation Impact Monitoring

Aus_Synthetic

MIL ACAR

Operational Data from Spring 2012

LEO GEO Wind

MDCRS

WindSATSfc Wind

Cloud_Wind

AMSU-A

R/S_Wind

AIREP

Radiosonde

ASCAT Sfc Wind

SSMIS

MODIS Wind

SCAT Sfc Wind

TC Synthetic

SSMIS Sfc Wind

LandSfc

AMDAR

ShipSfc

Dropsonde

AQUA

IASI

WindSAT-TPW

GPS

NRL NAVDAS-AR (4D-Var) Total Observation Sensitivity

WindSAT-PRH

AMSU-B

SSMIS TPW

MHS

PIBAL

AVHRR Wind

SSMI-PRH

24 HrFcst Error Norm Reduction (J/kg)

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/products/forecasts/systems/fp/obs_impact/

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/ar_monitor/

Operational monitoring reveals much larger relative impact of AMVs in Navy system.

slide3

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Why does FNMOC get such large impact from satellite winds?

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

  • Use of more satellite winds from more sources, some hourly?
  • More effective treatment of satellite winds …superobing vs. thinning?
  • Assimilation of fewer satellite radiances?

FNMOC

GMAO

160-200K obs/anal

65-80K obs/anal

Observation Count

Observation Count

FNMOC assimilates far more WV winds, and Vis, IR and WV winds from additional sources…most notably U.Wisc/CIMSS…also AFWA

slide4

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

A simple joint experiment:

Assimilate Navy-prepared satellite winds in the GMAO global forecast system…

GMAO Control

With NRLAMV

Fractional Impact (%)

Fractional Impact (%)

NRL SatWinds have roughly double the total impact of GMAO SatWinds.

slide5

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

An NRL experiment:

Compare NRL superob technique to a thinning approach

Unrejected Observations

Process AMVs to generate 1 superob per prism

Replace each superob by the unrejectedob closest in space to the superob ---

selected from the obs used to form the superob

prism

Thinned Ob Replacement

Superob

METHOD changes VALUE

NRL NHEM SUPEROB Horz. Prism Distribution

NRL experiment produced mixed results, depending on metric and area selected. Overall edge to superobing.

  • Comparable in terms of 500 mbAC, with superobinghaving a slight advantage at longer forecast ranges in the Southern Hemisphere.
  • Improvement in 200mb wind speed with superobing except in the tropics, where thinning is slightly better.
  • Improvement in 850mb wind speed in NHEM with superobing, but thinning slightly better in tropics and SHEM.
slide6

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

GMAO assimilated far more radiance observations than FNMOC.

Observation Counts per 6 hr (in thousands)

Notable observing system differences:

Approximate average values for the year ending 15 May 2012

Observation mix plays a significant role in modulating the impact of any one data type: the smaller impact of the NRL AMVs in the GMAO system (compared with their impact in the NRL system) is likely due to the larger number of satellite radiances in the GMAO system.

slide7

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

Total Impact by Data Type

Global Data Count

WINDSAT

WINDSAT

MODIS IR

MODIS IR

MODIS WV

MODIS WV

METEOSAT WV

METEOSAT WV

METEOSAT IR/Vis

METEOSAT IR/Vis

LeoGeo

LeoGeo

JMA WV

JMA WV

JMA IR/Vis

JMA IR/Vis

GOES WV

GOES WV

GOES IR

GOES IR

ASCAT

ASCAT

  • Relative impacts of most AMV types (right) correlate well with data counts (left).
  • Beneficial impact of MODIS winds in NRLAMV (versus non-beneficial impact in CONTROL, right) requires other explanation….superobs? More research needed
slide8

FY14 JCSDA AMV PROJECT

  • Compared with the control run with GMAO (NCEP) AMVs, the assimilation of NRL AMVs in the earlier project provided substantially increased beneficial impact, and also appeared to improve forecast skill overall.
  • The FY14 JCSDA project will be a follow-on multiagency effort to see if leveraging the NRL and GMAO techniques can improve the utilization of the AMV data in the NCEP system. Improved AMV assimilation important for JPSS Data Gap Mitigation.
  • NRL has an in-house project to further investigate and improve assimilation of AMV data, so some collaboration ongoing between NRL, U. Wisc./CIMMS, and GMAO.
  • Official JCSDA project will begin once a project plan is developed, SOWs are agreed upon, and “Sandy supplement” funds are distributed to the non-NOAA partners.
  • Joint investigation of AMV data assimilation should benefit all JCSDA partners through “lessons learned” using different systems to explore optimum methods for data processing, quality control, scaling/selection, and assimilation of these data.
slide9

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

Aug 15th, 12 UTC through Sept. 30th, 2010, @12 UTC

Total Reduction in the Moist Error Norm

NAVDAS-AR EXPERIMENT

AMV wind CONTROL

AMV wind DENIAL

~48%

~61%

~60%

~88%

~8%

~11%

~11%

~17%

~17%

~29%

When AMV winds are removed from the analysis altogether, the positive impact of the MW and IR satellite sounders does increase significantly. Does NRL have the optimum mix?

slide10

EARLIER NRL/GMAO AMV STUDIES

Results courtesy of Ron Gelaro, GMAO, Nancy Baker and Pat Pauley, NRL

Summary of Total Observation Impact – Tropics

10 Dec 2010 – 31 Jan 2011 00z

GEOS-5 EXPERIMENT

Control

NRLAMV

  • Contributions from CIMSS and non-CIMSS winds (right) are comparable to each other, and to that from GMAO control winds (left).
  • Not a data quality difference driving impact  volume of AMVs in NRLAMV