Problem Solving Escalator Video. Decisions!! Decisions!!. How many bad decisions have you made lately?. Maxine Clark founder of Build a Bear.
How many bad decisions have you made lately?
1996 expedition to the top of Everest were overconfident, did not follow the rule of reaching the top by 2:00 PM or you turn around. The 5 who reached the top at 4:00 died. Leaders said it worked 39 times before.
2. Sunk Cost Bias
1996 expedition to the top of Everest (29,000 feet) had invested 6 weeks of preparation to acclimatize and 2 weeks climbing. The cost was $65,000 each. Because of this, they had become overly committed – violating the “Turn around” rule.
3. Cognitive Bias
When you place too much emphasis on recent event. The leaders of the expedition to the top of Everest had experienced several seasons of good weather. A raging blizzard came in that day as they were climbing down in the dark.
Nurses and Doctors have a sense that something isn’t right, but no vital sign abnormalities – cardiac arrest happens.
A fireman sees a simple kitchen fire, but has a sense that his men should leave – the floor collapses.
Intuition is about pattern recognition and pattern matching based on out past experience
Audience was correct 91% of the time
Pressure for conformity to any members who express a dissenting view.
Certain individuals filter out information the might challenge the wisdom within the group.