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WCRP Update: Advancing Climate Research for Decision Making

Learn about the latest advancements in climate research and how it supports decision making and adaptation planning for a changing climate. Explore key topics such as sea-level change, melting ice, water availability, cloud circulation, weather extremes, and more. Discover the importance of data infrastructure and uncertainties in climate models. Join the discussion on capturing new skills and improving observations for better climate predictions.

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WCRP Update: Advancing Climate Research for Decision Making

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  1. Joint CEOS/CGMS Working Group on ClimateCNES, Paris, 7-9 March 2016WCRP updateM. Rixen, mrixen@wmo.int

  2. Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve • climate predictions and • understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

  3. The big picture • UNFCCC: 1.5 deg scenarios, IG3IS • IPCC: current state of the art, mainly WGI but also increasingly some WGII and WGIII • GFCS: research, modeling and prediction

  4. Decade Week Season Century Models Observations Reanalyses

  5. Decade Week Season Century

  6. Regional Sea-Level Change and Coastal Impacts Melting Ice and Global Consequences Changes in Water Availability Cloud Circulation and Climate Sensitivity Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes Joint Scientific Committee Joint Planning Staff Modeling Advisory Council Data Advisory Council Working Groups on: Coupled Modeling (WGCM), Numerical Experiment (WGNE), Regional Climate (WGRC), Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) CORDEX Regional Climate Downscaling CliC Cryosphere- Climate CLIVAR Ocean- Atmosphere GEWEX Land- Atmosphere SPARC Troposphere -Stratosphere

  7. WCRP vision for a data infrastructure Earth System Grid Federation

  8. What’s next?

  9. Uncertainties“The elephant in the room” (A. Ratier) • Risk management and decision making • Propagation along the value chain • Need for traceability and ref observations • Capturing uncertainties • Error covariances • Capturing new skill (reanalyses, sub-seasonal to decadal forecasts • How good is good enough? Model development and assessment

  10. Clouds and observations of Water, Heating & Circulation: Atmospheric cloud radiative effects (CERES-like, for sfc radiation budget and vertical profiles of radiative cooling) Highly-vertically resolved water vapor in LT (sharp gradients bw/ PBL and free troposphere) Better estimates of cloud water path (separation of clouds and precipitation) Vertical structure of latent heating, including surface evaporation (esp. below clouds for feedback studies) Large-scale vertical velocity / convergence (esp. for mean circulation, tropics, MJO, prospects w/ ADM-Aeolus) Support for a more continuous culture of complementary field experiments (see details in S. Bony, GCOS conference 2016)

  11. Limb sounders • Vertical profiles of many atmospheric constituents from UT to MS with global coverage • Stratospheric composition and circulation • Problem: gap expected in ozone and other trace species and aerosol measurements after current satellites fail

  12. Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) Earth Networks Satellites “Carbon Weather” Tefé TCCON SE Asia China Current Network Brazil

  13. WCRP Data Advisory Council • 7-8 April, NCEI, Asheville, USA • Data set assessments • obs4MIPs and ESGF • Fluxes • Reanalysis, conference • WCRP strategic plan • Possible WCRP-GCOS Data Prize

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