BEYOND-THE-HORIZON Anticipating Future and Emerging Information Society Technologies

1. BEYOND-THE-HORIZONAnticipating Future and Emerging Information Society Technologies BEYOND-THE-HORIZON is a Coordination Action funded by the EC IST Programme in FP6Future and Emerging Technologies Activity under contract no. 006662 Keith G Jeffery; ERCIM President

2. Agenda • 1. Background - ERCIM • 2. Background – the Technological Imperative • 3. Background - EC - FP6 and FP7 • 4. The BTH proposal and project • 5. The 6 thematic groups and their work • 6. Preliminary conclusions / recommendations for FP7 workprogramme • 7. Conclusions

3. ERCIM Members ERCIM is a consortium of leading research institutions from 18 Europeancountriescommitted to information technology and applied mathematics.

4. in a Nutshell • > 12000 researchers in major ICT labs in 18 countries: virtual organisation • 2 more in process of joining • National nodes for industrial and academic communities: leverage • European W3C Host, centrally and regionally • Working Groups – wide spectrum of subject areas across ICT • Research projects: technology transfer to European industry • > 100 spin-out companies from ERCIM institutes • Consultancy: advice and assistance • (especially) to EC • national governments • Fellowships: European human capital mobility • Dissemination: ERCIM News, Reports

5. For further information ERCIM Website http://www.ercim.org/ ERCIM News Quarterly magazine (free subscription) ERCIM Office, BP 93, F-06904 Sophia Antipolis Tel +33 4 92 38 50 10 — Fax +33 4 92 38 50 11— E-mail: office@ercim.org

6. Agenda • 1. Background - ERCIM • 2. Background – the Technological Imperative • 3. Background - EC - FP6 and FP7 • 4. The BTH proposal and project • 5. The 6 thematic groups and their work • 6. Preliminary conclusions / recommendations for FP7 workprogramme • 7. Conclusions

7. Looking Back: Technology • ICT used for industrial services • Accounting • Stock control • Production scheduling • Then for office functions • Email, calendar, documents • Then for decision support • Control room • Management

8. Current State: Technology • Characteristics • Price/performance • Moore’s Law for processor power • more impressive for storage systems • Distributed, connected • Data-information-knowledge • Used For • Modelling and simulation • Business processes • Knowledge-assisted decisions

9. Future: Working Smarter • Need not only to excel at R&D but also • Need to turn excellence in ICT R&D into • Wealth creation (employment, investment) • Improved quality of life • Innovation value chain • But it starts with excellent R&D • And excellent R&D starts withFET • (Future Emerging Technologies)

10. Future: Technology • ERCIM Strategy Group • ERCIM Working Groups • ERCIM active participation: • ISTAG • Next Generation GRIDs expert group • Future Emerging Technologies: Beyond The Horizon coordination action • Which all echo / amplify / build on the ERCIM strategic work

11. Agenda • 1. Background - ERCIM • 2. Background – the Technological Imperative • 3. Background - EC - FP6 and FP7 • 4. The BTH proposal and project • 5. The 6 thematic groups and their work • 6. Preliminary conclusions / recommendations for FP7 workprogramme • 7. Conclusions

12. Where are we now? • Almost at end of FP6 • Last calls December 2005 • Detailed Planning of FP7 • Likely first calls end-2006 • Likely first funding mid-2007 • What is happening • Consultation on FP7 • EC-managed groups • ISTAG http://www.cordis.lu/ist/istag.htm • National representatives • http://www.ost.gov.uk/ostinternational/fp7/index.html • Pan-European organisations • E.g. ERCIM www.ercim.org

13. ISTAG • Grand Challenges Document • ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/ist/docs/2004_grand_challenges_web_en.pdf • Consolidated Report • ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/ist/docs/2004_strategic_orientations_web_en.pdf • Note : GRIDs document • ftp://ftp.cordis.lu/pub/ist/docs/2004_grids_web_en.pdf • Reflects closely NGG thinking

14. ISTAG Grand Challenges 1-4 • The 100% Safe Car: Roadway accidents entail enormous human suffering and burden European society with tremendous economic costs. Hence, we envision projects with ICT systems leading the realisation of the 100% safe automobile for eliminating traffic fatalities almost completely. • 2. The Multilingual Companion: With the enlargement to 25 Member States, the EU faces a new multi-lingual challenge. We envision grand projects to defeat the communication barrier between member states by developing a powerful “multi-lingual companion” that will make multilingual and cross-lingual information access and communication virtually automatic. • 3. The Service Robot Companion: As the European population ages, spiralling health-related costs will place an immense burden on European economies. We envision the development of flexible home-care service robots, which will help people to care for themselves, improve their comfort of living and likely entertain them. • 4. The Self-Monitoring and Self-Repairing Computer: System failures are extremely costly and all too frequent in today’s complex ICT systems. We envision a grand challenge to develop self-monitoring and self-repairing computing systems that will demonstrate the principle of software systems with greatly improved reliability.

15. ISTAG Grand Challenges 5-8 • 5.The Internet Police Agent: To reap the full benefits of the Internet, we must maintain its further development and counter criminal and anti-social activities (SPAM, viruses, worms, fraud, etc.). We envision projects to develop an automated “police agent” that will be a socially beneficial force within the Internet environment. • 6. The Disease and Treatment Simulator: We envision the development of a computational platform for simulating the function of a concrete disease. This simulator will enable medicines to be tested without putting people at risk, and will accelerate research into damaging diseases such as heart disease and cancer. • 7. The Augmented Personal Memory: The ICT revolution will make it possible to store virtually every image, film or television program you have ever seen, every conversation you have ever had or book you have read. We envision a project that will make it possible for people to create, preserve, sort and retrieve their own personal vast storehouse of the past, in the form of a personalised digital life diary and augmented memory assistant. • 8. The Pervasive Communication Jacket: Most objects in the house, at work or in public spaces will soon carry wireless communications technology. We envision a communications “jacket” that will enable the individual of tomorrow to exploit these information resources in a natural and beneficial way.

16. ISTAG Grand Challenges 9-11 • 9.The Personal Everywhere Visualiser: visualisation is key for people to exploit the information revolution. A grand challenge is to develop a convenient personal and mobile visualisation system that will work anywhere and with minimal fuss, thereby enhancing our ability to harness tomorrow’s ICT capabilities. • 10. The Ultra-light Aerial Transport Agent: We envision an unmanned aerial transport agent for “small scale” logistics – for the transport of small packages and products from point to point, monitoring of crime, and helping in search and rescue operations. • 11. The Intelligent Retail Store: We envision projects to realise the “intelligent retail store” – a store in which emerging ICT technologies are integrated in a way that brings more information and efficiency to both retailers and their customers alike.

17. ISTAG Consolidated Report • Technology alone is not enough • Public trust in its use • Interoperation • Organisational change • Pervasive • out of the box and into everything • Mastering Complexity • Technologies and systems • Users and needs • Innovation lifecycle • Experience and Application Research • Users at all stages of lifecycle • Stimulating long-term lifecycle • European-scale R&D

18. NGG • Next Generation GRIDs • NGG1: 200301-200306 • Brought together visionary experts • Defined properties required and research agenda to achieve them • NGG2: 200401-200407 • Updated NGG1 vision in the light of funded projects and evolving requirements and technology • NGG3 200509-200601 • http://www.cordis.lu/ist/grids/pub-report.htm

19. GRIDs Vision and Requirements (1) • a user interacts with the GRIDs environment intelligently • such that the GRIDs environment proposes a 'deal' to the end-user to satisfy her request • which the user can then decide to execute – • involving multiple resources of computation, information, detectors (for new data collection), interactions with other users through various communication devices etc. middleware

20. GRIDs Vision and Requirements (2) • interoperation as a seemingly homogeneous 'surface' over a range of devices from smart dust through detectors to embedded systems (including controllers), handhelds, laptops, desktops, departmental servers, corporate servers and supercomputers. • the 'surface' depends on self-* (self-managing, self-repairing, self-tuning...) capability across arbitrary and dynamic collections of (large numbers of) nodes to give scalability, performance, reliability, access, security, privacy and other features.

21. NGG1 Properties Required: Transparent and reliable Open to wide user and provider communities Pervasive and ubiquitous Secure and provide trust across multiple administrative domains Easy to use and to program Persistent Based on standards for software and protocols Person-centric Scalable Easy to configure and manage √ NGG1

22. Call2 (NGG1) Projects Funded

23. Application A Application B Application C Grids Middleware Services Needed for A Grids Middleware Services Needed for B Grids Middleware Services Needed for C Grids Foundations for Operating System X Grids Foundations For Operating System Y Grids Operating System (including Foundations) Modular and dynamically loadable Operating System X Operating System Y NGG2 Architecture

24. Call5 (NGG2) Projects Funded ? Under negotiation

25. NGG3 • September 2005 - January 2006 • Still under active discussion • Draft report to EC DG INFSO F2 in December • Final Report in January 2006 • Key messages • GRIDs environment layering too complex • Use SOKU • Service Oriented Knowledge Utility

26. Interfaces Non SOKU Services Non SOKU Non SOKU Non SOKU Computing Infrastructure NGG3: SOKU

27. BTH Objectives • CA : ERCIM: DG INFSO F1 FET • 20050101 - 20060630 • http://www.beyond-the-horizon.net/ • The major objectives are: • to identify advanced strategic areas and challenging long-term goals; • to analyse their scientific, societal, and industrial impact and to deliver roadmaps for paving advances in these areas within a timeframe of fifteen years; • and to investigate new frontiers for ICT research, to identify the boundaries with other disciplines, as well as interrelationships among them and opportunities for cross-fertilization.

28. Topics • The chosen strategic topics are: • Pervasive Computing and Communications; • Nanoelectronics and nanotechnology; • Security, dependability and trust; • Bio-ICT synergies; • Intelligent and Cognitive Systems; • Software Intensive Systems.

29. Topics • Note that • For the ISTAG grand challenges • For the NGG architecture • These BTH technologies are necessary to realise the concepts • Developing first in the FET environment • Subsequently applied progressively more generally in the IST environment

30. Agenda • 1. Background - ERCIM • 2. Background – the Technological Imperative • 3. Background - EC - FP6 and FP7 • 4. The BTH proposal and project • 5. The 6 thematic groups and their work • 6. Preliminary conclusions / recommendations for FP7 workprogramme • 7. Conclusions

31. Contents • Beyond the Horizon: The Project • Rationale • Impact • Management • Methodology • Milestones

32. Beyond the Horizon: Purpose • To provide input about IST-related emerging trends and strategic researchareas that require support, through a well-organised, extensive and systematic consultation of the relevant research community throughout Europe, involving the main actors and experts in the related fields.

33. Beyond the Horizon: Goals • To identify advanced strategic areas and challenging long-term goals • To analyse their scientific, societal and industrial impact and to deliver roadmaps for advancement over the next 15 years • To investigate new frontiers for ICT research, to identify the boundaries with other disciplines, as well as interrelationships and cross-fertilizationpotential • To assist in cultivating and maintaining European research excellence

34. Beyond the Horizon: Contract • Instrument: Coordination Action • Coordinator: ERCIM EEIG • Start date: January 1st, 2005 • Duration: 18 months • Effort: 52 PM • Total budget: 612.127 € • EC contribution: 482.000 €

35. Beyond the Horizon: rationale (1/2) • ICTs: a key factor driving progress towards a global economy of knowledge in the 21st Century • ICTs provide new tools for communication throughout the world and for acquiring knowledge and insight from information • ICTs are progressively becoming a foundation for improving services to citizens in a variety of application domains, such as health care, government, transportation, entertainment, and other aspects of everyday life.

36. Beyond the Horizon: rationale (2/2) • The FET Programme aims at stimulating the emergence and development of new IST-related disciplines and technologies with significant scientific, industrial, and societal impact • FET supports long-term, visionary, high-risk research in advanced strategic areas • FET is requested to always maintain its focus at the forefront of scientific and technological research • The scope of investigation is broadening substantially, making the identification and fostering of emerging research challenges more complex.

37. Beyond the Horizon: potential impact (1/2) • Research community • Consensus building and mobilization • Formation of research networks • Interdisciplinary research • Policy developments • Contribution to enhancing EU’s reactivity to emerging scientific and technological challenges

38. Beyond the Horizon: potential impact (2/2) • Industry • increasing awareness of IST-related basic research as a contribution towards ensuring the long-term competitiveness of European industry • increasing industry awareness of new trends, challenges and visions in IST-related research

39. Project Coordination

40. Project management (2/3) • Scientific Steering Committee Members: • Prof. Dimitris Plexousakis • Institute of Computer Science, Foundation for Research and Technology-Hellas (FORTH), and Univ. of Crete, GR • Prof. Stefan Jähnichen • Technical University of Berlin, DE • Prof. Keith Jeffery (Chair) • Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils (CCLRC), UK; ERCIM President • Prof. Jean-Eric Pin • Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), FR • Prof. Arne Sølvberg • The Norwegian Institute of Technology, NO

41. Methodology • Open method of consultation and coordination • Continuous working group methodology, combined with major brainstorming workshops, in the form of a foresight exercise • Collaborative workspace to support online communities

42. Milestones • M0 Deployment of the Online Community Infrastructure – April 2005 • M1 Completion of all TG workshops – 12 Oct 2005 • M2 Coordinators’ Meeting – 13 Oct 2005 • M3 Plenary Workshop – 11-12 Dec 2005 • M4 TG Final Reports – February 2006 • M5 Final Project Report – March 2006 • M6 Dissemination Workshop for Policy Makers – April 2006 • M7 Session at High-Level Conference – March-June 2006

43. Milestones • M0 Deployment of the Online Community Infrastructure – April 2005 • M1 Completion of all TG workshops – 12 Oct 2005 • M2 Coordinators’ Meeting – 13 Oct 2005 • M3 Plenary Workshop – 11-12 Dec 2005 • M4 TG Final Reports – February 2006 • M5 Final Project Report – March 2006 • M6 Dissemination Workshop for Policy Makers – April 2006 • M7 Session at High-Level Conference – March-June 2006 We are here

44. Agenda • 1. Background - ERCIM • 2. Background – the Technological Imperative • 3. Background - EC - FP6 and FP7 • 4. The BTH proposal and project • 5. The 6 thematic groups and their work • 6. Preliminary conclusions / recommendations for FP7 workprogramme • 7. Conclusions

45. Thematic Areas • Pervasive Computing and Communications • Nanoelectronics and Nanotechnology • Security, Dependability and Trust • Bio-ICT Synergies • Intelligent and Cognitive Systems • Software Intensive Systems

46. Pervasive Computing and Communications (1/2) • User-centric provision of services aiming at enhancing the quality of life by seamlessly offering ubiquitous access to relevant information and services to the individual, anywhere and at any time, through the synergistic combination of intelligent, context-aware interfaces, and ubiquitous computing and networking

47. Pervasive Computing and Communications (2/2) • Research issues • Design of pervasive computing systems • Analysis, modelling and reasoning about systems behaviour • Control of systems and environments • Adaptation to changing context • In-depth understanding of potential and limits

48. Nanoelectronics and Nanotechnology (1/2) • Combining “top-down” semiconductor platforms with “bottom-up” developments in materials, physics, chemistry and biology

49. Nanoelectronics and Nanotechnology (2/2) • Research issues • new system architectures • combination and interfacing of diverse materials, functions, devices and information carriers • cost-effective fabrication techniques • methods and tools to model, manipulate, fabricate and characterise nano-objects • paradigms to exchange information with single atoms or molecules • methods and tools to master giga-complexity of future ICT architectures • further investigation of newly discovered physical phenomena or properties of matter at the meso-scale

50. Security, Dependability and Trust (1/2) • Increased risks stemming from • growing autonomy and mobility of technologies and systems • increasing size and complexity • increased heterogeneity • inherent interdependencies • system failure may lead to loss of financial resources, and even loss of human lives • even if a technological infrastructure is secure and dependable, users will not necessarily trust