Across the Great Divide

1. Across the Great Divide Seeking a political settlement across the value divides after Brexit

2. 2016 End of 30 Year Liberal Wave • Cold war over. 1990s New Democrats/New Labour conversion to markets. Hyper-globalisation. Gatt to WTO, China joins 2001. • EU Maastricht, Euro, new waves of immigration, weaker national social contracts, technocratic depoliticisation. Financial crisis • Populism/Trump response to new openness: from socio-economic to socio-cultural politics

3. Meta-tribes: Anywheres v Somewheres • Value group v social class, some overlap • Anywheres (25 per cent) – educated, mobile, secular value autonomy/openness/fluidity • Somewheres (50 per cent) – less educated, more rooted, value security/tradition • Key differences: social change/group attachment, “achieved” v “ascribed” identities • Too Binary? In-Betweeners variety of As & Ss • Not invented (fuzzy edges) BOTH LEGITIMATE

4. Smart people too powerful • Cognitive class shaping society in their interests, cognitive ability gold standard of esteem. Decline of other aptitudes/institutions (family, church, nation). Brexit collateral damage • Knowledge econ, lower status non-grad jobs • Higher education, neglect of technical/apprenticeships • Econ openness, mass immigration, “double whammy” • Meritocracy, social/geographical mobility/Greening. Save the bright ones! Less room at top, need basic jobs • Family policy bias against private realm/domesticity • Technocratic state: empowering /disempowering. National sov matters more if you have little in your life

5. Decent populists • Left v right/open v closed. Self-serving. Populist/Brexit voters mainly accept great liberalization. Not liberals. Hidden majority. Hard centre. Owen/Bell. • Want? Stable communities, secure borders, integrated minorities, citizen rights before universal, contribution and reciprocity in welfare, evolution but not abolition of gender division of labour, decent options for non-university, recognition and narrative for those of middling ability. Want to be valued/useful. • Value sov, Brit identity tied up in political institutions, uneasy about EU post-1992, would have accepted UK leadership of a second tier (Owen).

6. Keep calm Brexit • This is not May 1940. Nor winter of discontent, nor 2008. Half in/half out. Meaning not money. • A mess but a democratic one. Voters bowled a googly, election made it worse. • Brexit a Somewhere choice implemented by reluctant Anywheres. Mistakes: Article 50, managing public opinion, EU sets agenda, failure to sell deal. • Deal probable, DUP looking for way out, multi-dimensional face saving. • English question. O’Toole, not empire but voice. Post-Brexit boost for Tories?

7. Political interregnum • Politics/parties out of sync with new divide, runs through main parties. Labour/Tory. Will Leave/Remain become lasting political identities? Curtice 30% identify strongly with 2017 election choice, 80% with leave/remain. New parties easier in Europe • 2017 election Anywhere/youth backlash. Tuition fees/housing etc. Power of higher education • No lurch left but austerity fatigue? Socio-economic convergence, cultural divergence. Right won economic argument, left cultural. Liberal blob v decent populism • Who speaks for hidden majority? Somewheres shrinking not dying

8. New Settlement? • Harari: modernity, meaning for power. Or neither? Post-industrial societies less good at distributing status? Freedom, justice and meaning • Anywheres, more emotional intelligence please • The 3 Hs. Craft, technical, caring skill undervalued. Burst the university bubble • Will AI plus ageing society shift balance? Female equality and the caring economy • Finding common enemies/interests: environment, reform of social state, socio-economic convergence • Liberals and small-c conservatives, Bavaria