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Historical Patterns

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  1. Historical Patterns

  2. S Curve Pattern of Adoption Time

  3. Cable Growth, 1975 - 1999Percent of TV Hshlds Subscribing to Cable Sources: CAB, SRI & AC Nielsen

  4. Pricing of Telephone ServiceNew York to Chicago - 3 Minute Call(Current Dollars) Source: Historical Statistics of the U.S.; FCC

  5. Average Price of Selected Electronic Products(Current Dollars) Source: EIA; Sterling and Haight: Us Dept. of Commerce

  6. Price of Selected Electronic ProductsIn Terms of Weekly Household IncomeNumber Of Weeks Income To Pay For Product * Year Technology Entered Half of US Households Source: US Department of Commerce

  7. Average Price Of Home Computers 1981 to 1998 Dollars Sources: Dataquest; US Dept of Commerce

  8. Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households Newspapers 100+ Telephone 70 Phonograph 55 Electricity 43 Cable Television 39 FM Radio 30 Color Television 17 Personal Computer 17 Compact Disk Player 15 VCR 10 AM Radio 9 Black & White Television 8 Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest

  9. Percentage of U.S. Households With Telephone Service 1900 - 1998 Source: US Dept. of Commerce

  10. Replacement CyclesFor Electronic Products Product Average Life Cycle Cordless Telephone 10 Years Color TV 8 Camcorder 7 CD Player 7 VCR 6 Personal Computer 6 Telephone Answering Machine 5 Fax 4 Source: Gannett News Service & Appliance

  11. Computer Households With Modems1988 - 1998 Percentage of PC Homes With A Modem Source: Veronis & Suhler

  12. Average Monthly Cellular Phone Bill1987 - 1998 Source: Cellular Telecom Association

  13. Business Vs Personal Cellular Phone Use(Percentage of Bills Paid By Businesses vs Individuals) Business Use Personal Use Source: Cellular Telecom Industry Association

  14. Share of Radio Audience % of Audience AM Radio FM Radio Source: Statistical Research

  15. Current Media Trends

  16. Penetration of Media, 1999 Percentage of U.S. Households With Technology or Service, Jan. 1999 Sources: CEMA; NY Times; Video Business, CTIA

  17. Household Spending on Subscription Video Services - Cable, Satellite, MMDS & SMATV, 1988 - 2002 (Actual & Projected) $ Billion Source: Veronis, Suhler & Assoc.

  18. How U.S. Households Receive TV Cable, Satellite or Other 78% Broadcast Only 22% Source: SRI; Cable World

  19. Network Primetime Audience Share1977 - 1998 Source: Veronic, Suhler & Assoc.

  20. Broadcast & CableViewing Share and Revenue Share, 1998 Total Day Viewing Share Ad Revenue Share Barter/Syndication 4.7% Pay Cable 6.3% TV Networks 29.2% Cable 18.9% Basic Cable 37.2% Broadcast TV 56.5% TV Stations 42.7% Source: Veronis & Suhler

  21. Number of TVs In Households Percentage of Households Number of TVs Source: SRI CONTAM Survey

  22. Number of Household Telephones Percentage of Households Number of Telephones Source: SRI CONTAM Survey

  23. Number of Household PCs Percentage of Households 45% of PC owners have a PC and TV in the same room Number of Personal Computers Source: Cable World Survey

  24. Spending on Technology in U.S. K-12 Public Schools, 1992 - 1999 $ Billion * Estimated Source: Quality Education Data

  25. Internet Trends

  26. Number of US Households Subscribing ToAn Online/Internet Service Provider, 1985 - 1998 Millions of Households Online in 1998: 31% of Adults 27 % of Those Under 18 Source: Veronic & Suhler; Jupiter Communication, Decision Analysts

  27. Education Level of Adult Internet Users, 1998 Gen. Population Internet Users Less than H.S. 18% 4% H.S. Grad 34 25 Some College 25 31 College Grad 24 39 Source: US Census Bureau; Pew Research Center

  28. Percentage of Adults Online By Household Income, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

  29. Percentage of Adults Online By Age, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

  30. Percentage of Adults OnlineBy Ethnic Group, 1998 Source: Cyberdialogue/Findsvp

  31. Gender of Internet Users in the U.S. 1998 1994 14% 48% Female 52% 86% Male Source: GVU; Pew Research Center

  32. Top 10 Web SitesMost Frequently Visited Web Sites - January, 1999 1 Yahoo 2 AOL 3 MSN 4 Go 5 Geocities 6 Netscape 7 Excite 8 Lycos 9 Microsoft 10 Tripod Source: Media Metrix

  33. Electronic Commerce: Consumer Purchases on the Web Billions of Dollars Source: Forrester Research; WSJ

  34. Have You Ever Shopped on the Web? Percentage of Web Users Who Say They Have Made a Purchase on the Web Source: International Data Corp.; Cable World

  35. Cost To Deliver a 42-Page Document New York To: Los Angeles Tokyo Via.... Source: Interactive Week

  36. Cost of Banking Transactions Cost Per Tranaction Source: Booz-Allen & Hamilton; US Dept. of Commerce

  37. Growth in Web Advertising Revenue Billions of Dollars Source: Internet Advertising Bureau

  38. Will People Pay for Content on The Web? Cost Per Yr Est. Subcribers - 1998 Content Source WSJ $29-59 275.000 The Street.com 99 25,000 Slate* 20 23,000 ESPN 29-39 235,000 Playboy Cyber Club 72 30,000 * Abandoned subscription model in 1999 In 1998, subscription revenue was 2 percent of all Web revenue. Source: Crain's NY Business

  39. International Trends

  40. Per Capital GDP & Telephone Lines Per Capita GDP ($US 1996) Telephone Lines Per 100 Pop. ('97) Source: ITU

  41. Households With Telephone Service, 1996 Percentage of Households Source: ITU

  42. Countries With The Most Cellular Subscribers Per 100 Population, 1998 Rank N of Cell Phones Per 100 People 1. Finland 50.9 2. Norway 46.5 3. Sweden 45.8 4. Guam 43.0 5. Hong Kong 39.0 6. Israel 37.4 7. Japan* 36.7 *U.S. ranks 14th with 25.0 Source: The Stratigic Group; USA Today

  43. Cable TVand Direct BroadcastSatellite (DBS) Penetration, 1998 Percent of TV HHs Cable TV Satellite Source: The Strategis Group

  44. Internet Access in Selected Countries, 1998 Percentage of Households Source: The Strategis Group

  45. Internet Content Worldwide: Language and Source, 1998 Source of Web Sites Language of Web Sites Other Languages 15% Other Countries 20% U.S. 80% English 85% Source: Fortune

  46. Projected Distribution of World Online Households By Region, 2000 Asia/Pacific Rim 15% 10 Million HHs Other Regions 3% 1.9 Million HHs North America 57% 38.2 Million HHs Europe 25% 16.5 Million HHs Source: Jupiter Communications/Multichannel News

  47. Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998 Technology in Households China TV 25% Population 1.2 Billion Rural 70% Urban 30% Telephone Line 3 Personal Computer 1-2 Credit Cards 1-2 Internet <1 Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard

  48. Spotlight on China: Technology & Media Usage, 1998...continued Technology Use By Households In Four Cities* Growth of Web Users Pagers 62% Cell Phone 32 Personal Computer 16 DVD 3 Users 1997 670,000 1998 1,200,000 * Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, & Chengdu Source: Grey Advertising; The Industry Standard

  49. Social Trends That Affect Media Usage & Impacts of Media on Social Life

  50. Growth of ATM Machines in the U.S. 1972-1998 190,000 Sources: The Nielson Report, Diebold