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CITY-DELTA
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  1. CITY-DELTA A European model-intercomparison study in support to the CAFE programme on EU environmental legislation organised by JRC-IES (coordinator), IIASA, EMEP, EUROTRAC / TNO-MEP C. Cuvelier, P. Thunis, L. Tarrason, M. Amann

  2. Objective • To explore changes in air-quality (DELTA) in cities (CITY) due to changes in emission as predicted by atmospheric models with different scales • Deltas between: • Models • Cities • Scenarios • Scale Focus Integrated assessment of the impact on human health andecosystems. WHO recommendations: Long term exposureto O3(6 month hourly) and PM (12 months daily)

  3. Analyzed cities London Paris Prague Berlin Copenhagen Katowice Milan Marseille

  4. Participating models CHIMERE INERIS-IPSL (France) O3, PM EMEP MSC-W O3, PM EPISODE NILU (Norway) O3 LOTOS TNO (Netherlands) O3, PM MUSCAT IFT (Germany) O3, PM MUSE AUT (Greece) O3, PM REM FU Berlin (Germany) O3, PM OFIS AUT (Greece) O3, PM THOR NERI (Denmark) O3 CALGRID U. Brescia (Italy) O3 MOCAGE MeteoFrance (France) O3 STEM CESI (Italy) O3 EUROS RIVM (Netherlands) O3 TRANSCHIM CORIA (France) O3

  5. Emission scenarios • (0) 1999 • (1) CLE (Current Legislation) 2010 • (2) NOx MFR 2010 • (Maximum Feasible Reduction) • (3) NOx (CLE+MFR)/2 2010 • (4) VOC MFR 2010 • (5) NOx and VOC MFR 2010 • (6) PMcoarse MFR 2010 • (7) PM2.5 MFR 2010

  6. Berlin Katowice London Milan Paris Prague Available model runs O3: 224 model runs for 6 months PM: 89 model runs for 12 months

  7. CityDelta graphical interpretation tool

  8. Monitoring data

  9. Validation with monitoring data

  10. Deltas comparison

  11. Spatial indicators & deltas

  12. Interpretation of the results • Modeling teams submit results to JRC • JRC processes data and loads them on the Internet • Participants evaluate their results individually with the tool • Discussion and joint interpretation at regular CityDelta meetings • Synthesis of conclusions for integrated assessment modelling

  13. MEAN O3 Berlin Paris Milano London 1999-CLE CLE-NOxMFR CLE-VOCMFR

  14. Deltasfor 1999-CLE, Berlin, mean O3 8 2 12 16

  15. Deltasfor 1999-CLE, Berlin, mean O3

  16. Population-weighted mean O3 Berlin

  17. Main initial findings forlong-term O3 • Emission inventories are crucial • Consistent difficulties in night time model predictions(too high) • Day time predictions generally have smaller bias and show less variability between models • Generally, predictions vs. measurements at finer scale (down to 5 km) not significantly better than 50km scale • What does this have to say about policy tools? Do we need develop tools down to street levels? • However, NO2 predictions vs measurements are significantly betterat finer scale • Does this indicate that finer scale is important for modelling titration effects?

  18. Main initial findings forPM • Emission inventories are crucial and uncertain • Generally models underpredict concentrations, and have difficulties reproducing the seasonal variation of the observations • What are models missing (coarse fraction, SOA, representation of stable conditions, etc)? • Need a deeper review of secondary/primary components • Validation against observations (PM2.5) with chemical composition is absolutely necessary • Further scenarios are required before PM deltas can be analysed (CityDelta Phase 2)

  19. http://rea.ei.jrc.it/netshare/thunis/citydelta