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The Euro- and City-Delta model intercomparison exercises

The Euro- and City-Delta model intercomparison exercises. P. Thunis, K. Cuvelier Joint Research Centre, Ispra. EuroDelta A project to evaluate uncertainty in modelling source-receptor relationships used in air quality policy Organised by:

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The Euro- and City-Delta model intercomparison exercises

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  1. The Euro- and City-Delta model intercomparison exercises P. Thunis, K. Cuvelier Joint Research Centre, Ispra

  2. EuroDelta • A project to evaluate uncertainty in modelling source-receptor relationships used in air quality policy • Organised by: • JRC-IES, IIASA, EMEP, TNO-MEP, CONCAWE, INERIS, SMHI, FUB • Objectives: • Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to emission changes ? • What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ? • What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ?

  3. CityDelta • A project to include sub-grid effects into a Europe-wide health impact assessment for PM and O3 • Organised by: • JRC-IES, IIASA, EMEP, TNO-MEP, CONCAWE • Objectives: Identify systematic differences (deltas)betweenrural and urban background AQ (scale) • How these delta vary in terms of urban emissions? • How these delta vary accross cities? • How these delta vary accross models? • How these delta vary accross pollutants ?

  4. City-Delta Cities: Comparisons are conducted for a number of European cities with distinct differences in climatic conditions, geographical settings, and emissiondensities. London Paris Prague Berlin Copenhagen Katowice Milan Marseille

  5. EURODELTA CHIMERE REM EMEP MATCH LOTOS TM5 CITYDELTA Participating Models

  6. EURODELTA European Wide reductions (from 2000 to 2020 with 2 sets of meteorology) Beyond 2020 specific NOx, Sox, NH3 and VOC reductions for Italy, Germany, France and Sea-areas In total 28 emission scenarios Current phase: 55 additional scenarios (5 groups) CITYDELTA 8 emission scenarios for each city 1999 Base Case 2010 Current Legislation NOx, VOC, PM25, PMc Maximum Feasible reductions Current Phase: 7 cities for 4 scenarios (3-4 modelling groups) Emission Scenarios

  7. ED: Input / Output • Input data: EMEP emissions, Met year 1999 • Area Covered: Europe (resolution 50 km) • Output: Surface fields (hourly, daily and monthly) organised in monthly files • and reported on individual model grid. Interpolation to Lat-lon and EMEP

  8. Data Management

  9. The Euro- & City-delta tool Original Participant data (~Tb) Pre-processing (JRC) Processed data (20 Gb) and graphical tool available on Web

  10. MONIT • Visualisation of raw monitoring data • Various statistics: observation availability, mean, max, stddev,… • Only for ground stations up to now.

  11. VALID • Comparison of measurements/model results • Numerous statistics available including Taylor, AOT, SOMO, scatter-plots… • Comparison of different model versions, ENSEMBLE approach • restricted to ground stations

  12. VALID

  13. EMIS • Visualisation of input emission data • Sector, pollutant, country/region-wise visualisation • No time or species disaggregation.

  14. PLANE • 2-D visualisation • Selected statistics available for 2-D monthly surface maps • Comparison of different model versions, ENSEMBLE approach but pre-calculated

  15. Countries Mean Ozone Max ensemble min

  16. OBSERVATIONS EMISSIONS MODEL 1 MODEL 2 MODEL 3, … 4-D Fields: Meteo, Chemistry, Aerosols Pre-processing (Window Interface) ASCII-BIN  CDF MONIT Observations Overview EMIS Emissions QAQC Ratio checks SHOWALL 4D model data analysis XZ, YZ, SZ, XY Sections Comparison with obs. VALID Statistical Module Multi-models (obs .vs. models)

  17. Conclusions • Surface field • Control of ext parameters (biogenics, BC, …) • 2-D functions only for pre-defined variables + Common interactive graphical tool + Common input (emission, meteo) as far as possible) ? Data transfert ? Data interpolation ? Grid structure (e.g. emission release height)

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