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Scenario Planning

Scenario Planning. A training course. V. Purpose of today. To develop a common understanding on the use, value and process of scenario planning To look at how scenarios can support broader strategic thinking

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Scenario Planning

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  1. Scenario Planning A training course V

  2. Purpose of today • To develop a common understanding on the use, value and process of scenario planning • To look at how scenarios can support broader strategic thinking • To deepen your understanding of the practicalities of designing and running scenario projects • To build an overview of different approaches, tools and techniques • To have a go

  3. Mix of activities Presentations Group activities Casestudies

  4. Structure 9.30 Introducing scenario planning 10.15 Scenarios and strategic management 11.00 Coffee 11.15 Building scenarios 12.45 Lunch 1.15 Detailing the scenarios 2.45 Fruit 3.00 From planning to action 4.00 Coffee 4.15 From planning to action (cont) 4.45 Review learning points 5.30 Close

  5. The scenario planner’s dilemma Plausible, stretching and compelling Breakthrough thinking Audience pull Comfortable Uncomfortable Audience pull Implausible, obvious and dull

  6. Why resistance happens • people are not skilled at thinking about the future… • so they may have little understanding of where scenarios have come from • scenarios invite people to lay bare their assumptions… • which some would rather keep hidden • the future is neutral and democratic… • which means everyone has an equal voice • scenario thinking removes the rules and structures of today… • which makes some people defensive

  7. Why resistance happens • scenarios invite people to explore what might happen… • and people want to control what will happen • Understanding scenarios (the output) relies on understanding drivers and uncertainties (the input)… • and many people do not have a detailed understanding of what’s currently happening • scenarios may be the art of strategic conversation… • but most people are not good strategic conversationalists

  8. Processdesign • Are you trying to develop • multiple futures? • a preferred future? • Do you need • new scenarios? • contextualised scenarios? • Is your principle output • the scenarios? • deeper understanding? • a policy framework? • policy decisions? • something else?

  9. Processdesign • Are you going to consult • extensively? • not much? • Is it more important to capture • subjective opinion? • objective opinion? • Are you going to describe • endstates? • timelines?

  10. Seven Steps to Successful Scenario Planning • Be clear about the business idea or policy proposition you wish to test • Identify the trends and drivers that might have an impact on its delivery • Capture the perspective of a number of stakeholders • Agree what is predetermined and what are critical uncertainties • Develop scenarios that are robust enough to work with - but do not over-engineer them or expect them to provide ‘the answer’ • Use the scenarios to practice future decisions • Link the outcomes of your discussions to forward planning

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