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Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research

This presentation discusses the successes, challenges, and priorities in tropical cyclone operations and research. Topics include collaborative partnerships, data collection and modeling, transition of research to operations, outreach and education, and community hazard resiliency.

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Tropical Cyclone Operations & Research

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  1. Tropical Cyclone Operations& Research Priorities for the Future Mary M. GlackinDeputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008

  2. Outline • Successes and Challenges • Collaborative Partnerships are vital • Data Collection • Modeling • Transition of Research to Operations • Outreach and Education • Community Hazard Resiliency Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  3. Success and ChallengesCollaborative Partnerships • Track and Intensity forecasts • 48-hr track forecasts have improved 3.5% per year on average since 1985, while intensity forecasts have improved about 0.8% per year • Storm Surge • Rainfall / Flooding • Storm Structure • Sea State • Observations Storm Surge/Flooding UAS Flying into Hurricane (artist depiction) Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  4. Collaborative PartnershipsData Collection • Entire observations system depends on partnerships • Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR’s) being transitioned from research to operations • UAS partnerships (NASA, DOE) • Ocean Surface Vector Winds • In Situ Observations • COSMIC • Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) SFMR or “SMURF” Altair Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  5. Collaborative PartnershipsModeling and Prediction • GFDL • Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereModel • HWRF • Air-Sea-Land Hurricane Prediction System • Operational in 2007; GFDL will run in parallel • Navy GFDN & COAMPS • Tropical Cyclone Systems • Multi-Model Ensembles /Model Consensus • Important to tropical cyclone forecast and warning operations • NUOPC Navy COAMPS Model of Significant Wave Heights in Western Pacific Hurricane Katrina HWRF Model—8/2005 Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  6. Collaborative PartnershipsTransition of Research to Operations • Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) • Modeling • NCEP / EMC • Developmental Testbed Center • Navy/FNMOC • Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) Joint Hurricane Testbed Center Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  7. Outreach and Education Map of StormReady Communities • StormReady • NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards • Multi-Agency collaboration including • Department of Education • Department of Homeland Security • Department of Commerce/NOAA • Work with FEMA, States and Local Agencies, NGOs, Academia, Private Companies • Media • Hurricane Liaison Team • Seasonal Forecasts and Preparedness Map of NWR Coverage Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  8. Collaborative PartnershipsHazard Resiliency For Coastal Communities • Impact of Tropical Systems on Ecosystems • Partnership needed to meet resource demands • Figure: County Population Change (1970 – 2000) in 1000’s of people • Red: coastal counties • Green: non-coastal counties • “High Priority is assessing and improving the resiliency of the physical and social infrastructure” • National Science Board report Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  9. Questions? Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  10. Tropical Cyclone Operations& Research Priorities for the Future Mary M. GlackinDeputy Under Secretary for Oceans & Atmosphere | NOAA62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) March 3, 2008

  11. Collaborative PartnershipsResponse • Hurricane Liaison Team • Media Pool Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program HLT (FEMA/NOAA) discussing tidal surge heights for Hurricane Lili (2002) NHC Meteorologist Updating HLT Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  12. Collaborative PartnershipsRecovery • Land falling tropical cyclones will occur again • Assistance from Federal Agencies will be critical to recovery efforts Response is critical to the tropical cyclone program Status of Transportation-related Recovery Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  13. The Path AheadWhat have we learned? • Multiple Hurricane Proposals • Partnerships and coordination • Operational requirements • Advancements in operational numerical weather prediction models • Advanced observations and data assimilation • An efficient transfer of research to operations plan • Critical Mass is crucial Path and Intensity Track of Hurricane Katrina (2005) Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  14. The Path Ahead • Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead • Excellent Plan • Comprehensive Strategy • Key Areas • Relevant R&D Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

  15. Collaborative PartnershipsGlobal Earth Observation System of Systems • A distributed system of systems • Improves coordination of strategies and observation systems • Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks • Identifies gaps in our global capacity • Facilitates exchange of data and information • Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research

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