VENICE &

1. VENICE& AIACC Lecture Trieste, 7th June 2002 Ângela Guimarães Pereira

2. Scenarios are presented as explorations into the space of futures to stakeholders and citizens Development of scenarios based on current local driving forces and general context Discussion of possible futures: values, powers, obstacles, local context Hence the ideas in the scenario are confronted with local knowledge Policy recommendations may be derived from this exercise Project at a Glance

3. Objective & Rationale To help to see whether there could be a vision for a sustainable Venice in the year 2050 Involve the main actors of Venice into this exercise... Extended Peer Review inclusion of those affected and affecting the possible futures to supply KNOWLEDGE in order TO ENHANCE UNDERSTANDING of the problem and POTENTIAL RESPONSES

4. SCENARIOS FOR VENICE, 2050 CURRENT DRIVING FORCES VISIONS Scenarios Narratives DEMOGRAPHIC ECONOMIC IDENTIFICATION BREAKING POINTS TRANSPORTATION GOVERNANCE CULTURAL

5. VISIONS OF VENICE, 2050 Tonight I’ll tell you about 4 cities Veniexia, Venusia, Venetia, Vinegia Marco Polo tells Kublai Kan…

6. Visions of Venice 2050 Tourism has trickled down to a small fraction Living conditions have deteriorated very much… Air and water pollution significantly affect human and ecosystem health Traditional activities close down Building Decay A ‘new Venice’ in the mainland is created to preserve the cultural heritage Emigration increases very much Gotham City

7. Visions of Venice 2050 Venice became a cultural park and a museum city: one of the 4 most important tourist destinations of the world Venice is a stage where the whole population acts in a gigantic performance Corporations dominate economy and city life Carnival takes place 4 times a year Floods and high tides become touristic attractions Venezia Inc.

8. Visions of Venice 2050 The local economy is absorbed into engineering projects The city’s aspect is of a fortified city under siege It is all like a huge accident waiting to happen. Tangible paradigm of the application of engineering approaches to complex problems Tourism has nearly disappeared City-Machine

9. Visions of Venice 2050 Cultural treasures and cyberjobs as economic base Restoration of the lagoon morphology Encouragement of traditional activities, like fishing Control of tourism and of floods Control of pollution Cyberia

10. Identification based on European Awareness Scenario Workshops Social Research Objective: to explore the new generations and the old generations’ perspectives about futures… Interviewees • 8 Citizens • 6 Entrepreneurs • 6 Business & engineering • 5 Policy Makers Focus Groups • School children (10-12 years old) • Citizens (60 – 70 years old) • Citizens (evenly distributed over age groups) Objective: to explore the sense of agency of citizens on determining the futures…

11. Presenting the Scenarios • Multi-media Guiding Materials • Press Articles • Multi-media interactive movie • To provide a tangible aspect • of everyday life • To provide a pleasant and • efficient means of discussion • Interview Guide - in-depth interviews • Screenplay – focus groups Main Objective: To enhance interface between an alien scientific tool and non-scientific audiences • Local driving forces • Empowerment of local and external agents • Actions • Contradictions of sustainability • Venice as a Metaphor of Europe

12. Venice & Europe... In terms of contents… Driving Forces Driving Values Vision Venice as a metaphor of Europe Contradictions of sustainability To involve main actors and citizens of Venice into this exercise...

13. Preliminary Reflections: ‘Gotham City’ • Driving Forces • Demographic decline (influence of industrial zone) • Environmental degradation • Increasing commuting distances & volumes • Driving Values • lack of trust in institutions • Vision • Catastrophic • Considered too catastrofic so, one of the less trustworthy. • Interviewees pointed out how pollution is soon to be kept under control • Fishing industry close down (in its present form) is strongly desirable - current fishing systems seen as a cause of environmental degradation of the lagoon. • The transfer of Venice's cultural heritage to the mainland is also considered improbable, even if Las Vegas has recently developed a clonation of Venetian architecture and buildings…

14. Preliminary Reflections: ‘Venezia Inc.’ • Driving Forces • Dominance of the tertiary sector (tourism…) • Environmental degradation (halted) • Demographic decline • History of Venice - The Myth of Venice • Driving Values • bureaucratic & technocratic • Vision • Big is Beautiful… • Generally considered as the most probable • Many interviewees deem it as the most natural and responding to reality - even thought to be already in action under many aspects.

15. Preliminary Reflections: ‘City-Machine’ • Driving Forces • Dominance of the tertiary sector • Environmental degradation (high tides/subsiding…) • Demographic decline • Driving Values • technocratic • Vision • Asimov Vision… Creeping change… • General rejection and considered the least probable and the remotest from reality. • General agreement on the need of engineering measures to solve the problems connected with the large floods and the restoration of the lagoon. • Expenditure to high compared with real problems caused by the floods.

16. Preliminary Reflections: ‘Cyberia’ • Driving Forces • Dominance of the tertiary sector (cultural, ICT…) • Environmental degradation (reversed) • High and democratic participation • History of Venice: The Myth of Venice • Driving Values • institutional trust, social solidarity • Vision • Sustainable, serene… • Considered as the most adequate by all the interviewees. • In general the restoration of the morphology of the lagoon, the control of pollution, etc, and mainly the control and the organization of the tourist flows, are aims pursued by the politicians, the technicians and the local administration, and are fully supported by the citizens.

17. Final Remark… The cities you are telling me about seem to be the same city... Maybe your stories are different ways of looking at it. Perhaps a vision of Europe...