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1 School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

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1 School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

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  1. Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little1, R.C. Francis1, M.G. Dalton2 and J.C. Field3 1School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 2AFSC, NMFS, NOAA, Seattle, WA 3Santa Cruz Laboratory, NMFS, NOAA, Santa Cruz, CA

  2. Northern California Current Ecosystem (NCCE) Wash. Oregon California

  3. 1960 2000

  4. Baseline: year 2000 REVENUE BIOMASS 82.4

  5. SCENARIOS how do ecology and economy respond to… • different CLIMATE • additional FISHING effort • CLIMATE & FISHING *all scenarios for year 2000 and year 1960 systems*

  6. SCENARIO 1: Climate

  7. SCENARIO 1: Climate

  8. SCENARIO 1: Climate Average 1960-2000 …to 2100

  9. SCENARIO 1: Climate Average 1963-76 …to 2100

  10. SCENARIO 1: Climate Average 1977-98 …to 2100

  11. SCENARIO 1: Climate REVENUE BIOMASS

  12. SCENARIO 1: Climate REVENUE BIOMASS

  13. SCENARIO 1: Climate REVENUE BIOMASS

  14. SCENARIO 1: Climate REVENUE BIOMASS

  15. SCENARIO 1: Climate Compared to year 1960 system?

  16. SCENARIO 1: Climate REVENUE BIOMASS

  17. 1960 SYSTEM SCENARIO 1: Climate 2000 SYSTEM

  18. 1960 SYSTEM SCENARIO 1: Climate 2000 SYSTEM

  19. SCENARIO 1: Climate

  20. SCENARIO 2: Fishing

  21. SCENARIO 2: Fishing Are we measuring RESILIENCE? from Walker et al. 04

  22. SCENARIO 2: Fishing

  23. SCENARIO 2: Fishing

  24. SCENARIO 2: Fishing

  25. SCENARIO 2: Fishing

  26. SCENARIO 2: Fishing

  27. SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

  28. 63-76 CLIMATE 77-98 CLIMATE SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing REVENUE

  29. SUMMARY thanks to: WA Sea Grant, IPDES, SAFS