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Forecasting for ARVs medicines Baseline Estimates November 2005

Forecasting for ARVs medicines Baseline Estimates November 2005. Methods. Volumes of the currently sales of ARVs were collected from AMDS partner organizations ,and grouped in 3 groups: Low Income countries Middle Income countries Brazil.

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Forecasting for ARVs medicines Baseline Estimates November 2005

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  1. Forecasting for ARVs medicines Baseline Estimates November 2005

  2. Methods • Volumes of the currently sales of ARVs were collected from AMDS partner organizations ,and grouped in 3 groups: • Low Income countries • Middle Income countries • Brazil

  3. Calculation of the number of patients from procurement data 1) Number of smallest pharmaceutical units procured was converted in number of patient-years of drugs used 2) Percentage of individual drugs used was expressed against the total volume of API procured (expressed in patient-years) 3) Drugs were deemed to be used as first line and second line drugs when recommended as such for the majority of patients according to the 2003 WHO ART guidelines.

  4. WHO recommendations for first and second line drugs First line ARVs NRTI stavudine (d4T), zidovudine (ZDV), lamivudine (3TC) NNRTI nevirapine (NVP), efavirenz (EFV) Second Line NRTI/NtRTI Tenofovir (TDF), abacavir (ABC), didanosine (ddI), PI lopinavir (LPV), ritonavir (r), saquinavir (SQV) , indinavir (IDV), nelfinavir (NFV), atazanavir (ATV).

  5. Volume de ARV transactions reported in GPRM between January 1,2005 and July 31,2005 (in patient-years)

  6. Volume de ARV transactions reported in GPRM between January 1,2005 and July 31,2005 (in patient-years)

  7. Volume de ARV transactions reported in GPRM between January 1, 2005 and July 31,2005(in patient-years)

  8. Volume of ARV transacted in Brazil January 1 to December 31, In 2004 patient-years

  9. Volume of ARV transacted in Brazil January 1 to December 31, In 2004 patient-years

  10. Volume of ARV transacted in Brazil January 1,2004 to December 31, 2004 (in patient-years)

  11. A glimpse of the future: Likely orientation of the 2006 WHO ART guidelines Comparison of 1st and 2nd Line ARV Drug Formularies for Adults and Adolescents (2003 vs 2006)

  12. A glimpse of the future: Likely orientation of the 2006 WHO ART guidelines Comparison of 1st and 2nd Line ARV Drug Formularies for Adults and Adolescents (2003 vs 2006) Triple NRTI alternative d4T*or ZDV EFV 3TC or FTC NVP ABC or TDF Classical NRTI/NNRTI approach

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