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In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback. TURN IT ON AND A SWITCH POPS OUT TO TURN IT OFF??. THE USELESS MACHINE. YIKES!. ONLY $29.95. TRUE STORY??!!. Source: Wall Street Journal 3/12/2013.
In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback.
TURN IT ON AND A SWITCH POPS OUT TO TURN IT OFF??
THE USELESS MACHINE
Source: Wall Street Journal 3/12/2013
Mar 14th, 2013
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Ken Langone – Founder Home Depot
As of: 3/14/2013
Last Update: 3/14/2013
READING AS OF: 3/14/2013
CURRENT READING: 76.3%
PRIOR READING: 72.0%
11 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE
TREND - POSITIVE
POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012
2007 to NOW
Source: Wall Street Journal
MONEY SUPPLY GROWING
MONEY VELOCITY DECREASING
EXCESS RESERVES GROWING
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Below 95% of Pre-Recession Level
Source: Calculated Risk
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
17.4% of GDP
13.1% of GDP
Business Investment – Down 25%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Most Likely Path
Getting back to
“normal” will be tough
Source: The Hamilton Project
NO “ROTATION” YET!
Flows into bond funds actually increased
Source: Political Calculations
The “Portfolio” Tab
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Trade Date Breakout/Edit
- Current Data
- Historical Stats
- Strategy Stats
- Comparison to the Market
INTEREST RATES – BERNANKE “SPEAK”
Recently (3/1/2013) Chairman Bernanke made a speech to the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference in San Francisco:
“LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES”
DISECTING THE SPEECH (AGREE OR NOT) WILL TELL YOU HOW
THE FED VIEWS RATES AND WHY. WE SHOULD LISTEN!
Global Yields “Conform”
Expected path of “real” rates
Residual rate or Term Premium
*COMPONENTS OF YIELD
If inflation is close to NOMINAL rate – the other two
components make slightly “negative” contributions
Source: Bernanke quotes in speech
Note: Up/Down ranges are quite equalized
“I hope my discussion this evening has convinced you that, at least in economic circumstances of the sort that prevail today, such an approach [increasing rates] could be quite costly and might well be counterproductive from the standpoint of promoting financial stability.”
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. It offers extensive north/south service within the western United States, Canada, and Mexico; passenger and cargo services to and within the state of Alaska; and long-haul east/west service to Hawaii and 13 cities in the mid-continental and eastern United States. The company offers passenger air services to approximately 24 million passengers and fly to approximately 100 destinations. As of December 31, 2011, its fleet consisted of 117 Boeing 737 jet aircraft and 48 Bombardier Q400 turboprop aircraft. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Source: FinViz.com, March 2013
POSITIVES:Alaska Air offered new flights which helped add to their 8% increase over 2011 numbers. Passenger revenue per available seat mile also increased nearly 3%. Lower fuel expenses offset higher maintenance and ancillary costs. All told, earnings grew 21% year over year.
Possible concerns:If fuel prices spike or the global economy fails to gain sufficient traction, it would surely weigh on results of the forthcoming fleet modernization program.
Sources: Value Line, March 2013
Purchase at $54.11
As of February 28, 2013 - Subject to change.
Barclays Upgrade 3/4/2013
Improving Steadily In All Metrics
The Transportation-Airlines industry group posted the largest gain in the past eight weeks among the 197 industries tracked by IBD.
The top advances in the industry include Spirit Airlines (SAVE), up 31% year to date, Alaska Air Group (ALK), up 29% and SkyWest (SKY), up 19%.
Another boost came Feb. 22 from the Department of Transportation, which reported passenger traffic increased 0.8%, year over year, in November. Domestic travelers inched up 0.4% while international passengers jumped 4.3%.
IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL
Note: Status = No impact
Status = Negative Impact
As Of: 3/13/2013
THANKS FOR JOINING US!
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