slide1 n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback. PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback.

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 74

In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 110 Views
  • Uploaded on

In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback. TURN IT ON AND A SWITCH POPS OUT TO TURN IT OFF??. THE USELESS MACHINE. YIKES!. ONLY $29.95. TRUE STORY??!!. Source: Wall Street Journal 3/12/2013.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback.' - teigra


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

In a world dominated by smarter and smarter gadgets, one of the dumbest machines on earth is making a quiet comeback.

TURN IT ON AND A SWITCH POPS OUT TO TURN IT OFF??

THE USELESS MACHINE

YIKES!

ONLY

$29.95

TRUE STORY??!!

Source: Wall Street Journal 3/12/2013

slide2

BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM

Mar 14th, 2013

WELCOME!

slide3

AGENDA

  • WELCOME!
  • ADMIN NOTES
  • QUOTE OF THE DAY
  • OPTIMISM GAUGE
  • CHARTS OF INTEREST
  • SO WHAT’S UP WITH: INTEREST RATES
  • A CLOSER LOOK AT: ALK
  • DAVID’S CORNER
  • SWAPS AND SPREADS
  • LEE’S COMMENTS
  • QUESTIONS/COMMENTS
slide4

“NOTES”

  • IF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TO
  • HAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT.
  • WE’LL UN-MUTE YOU ON OUR END SO YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS.
  • PLEASE MUTE AUDIO FROM THE MENU ON YOUR SCREEN SO
  • WE DO NOT GET FEEDBACK.
  • THANK YOU!
slide6

BigFoot On LinkedIn!

Don’t Forget To Join Our “Group”

slide7

Notifying You!

SMS Alert System

slide8

NOTES!

  • WE WILL NOW POST THE WEBINAR SLIDES AND RECORDINGS TO THE BLOG
  • ALSO - WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEND OUT THE SLIDES
slide9

QUOTE OF THE DAY:

The two most powerful things in existence:…

…….A kind word and thoughtful gesture!

Ken Langone – Founder Home Depot

slide10

Optimism Gauge

As of: 3/14/2013

slide11

Measuring Our Economy

Last Update: 3/14/2013

slide12

Measuring Our Economy

READING AS OF: 3/14/2013

Economic

Optimism

Index

NOTES/COMMENTS

CURRENT READING: 76.3%

PRIOR READING: 72.0%

BIAS: BULLISH

11 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE

TREND - POSITIVE

45

65

35

75

25

85

76.3%

15

95

Current Reading

Prior Reading

POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012

slide14

BEFORE AND AFTER – HOW ARE WE DOING?

2007 to NOW

Source: Wall Street Journal

slide16

REASON #1 – THE MONEY IS JUST SITTING!

MONEY SUPPLY GROWING

MONEY VELOCITY DECREASING

EXCESS RESERVES GROWING

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

slide17

REASON #2 – SMALL BUSINESSES OUTLOOK: POOR

Below 95% of Pre-Recession Level

Source: Calculated Risk

slide18

REASON #3 – LABOR FORCE METRICS MASK A PROBLEM

Feb 2007

66.3%

FEB 2013

63.5%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

slide19

REASON #4 – GDP NOT GROWING FAST ENOUGH

17.4% of GDP

13.1% of GDP

Business Investment – Down 25%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

slide20

REASON #5 – THE JOBS GAP

Most Likely Path

Getting back to

“normal” will be tough

Source: The Hamilton Project

slide21

MONEY FLOWS

NO “ROTATION” YET!

Flows into bond funds actually increased

Source: ICI

slide22

CHANGES CAN HAVE CONSEQUENCES

Source: Political Calculations

slide23

BigFoot News

The “Portfolio” Tab

slide28

Trade Log Excel file

To Remove Position

To Override BigFoot System

Trade Date Breakout/Edit

slide30

Monthly Returns

- Current Data

- Historical Stats

- Strategy Stats

- Comparison to the Market

slide32

SO WHAT’S UP WITH:

INTEREST RATES – BERNANKE “SPEAK”

slide33

Recently (3/1/2013) Chairman Bernanke made a speech to the Annual Monetary/Macroeconomics Conference in San Francisco:

“LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES”

DISECTING THE SPEECH (AGREE OR NOT) WILL TELL YOU HOW

THE FED VIEWS RATES AND WHY. WE SHOULD LISTEN!

slide34

WHY ARE RATES SO LOW?

  • Central Banks pursuing accommodative policy
    • Boost Growth
    • Reduce slack in economy
  • Broader economic environment (world-view)
  • Constraints that environment places on policy
  • The first one is obvious
  • The last two are also “policy drivers”
slide35

BROADER ECONOMIC PICTURE

Global Yields “Conform”

slide36

BASIS FOR 10 YEAR U.S. RATES (CONSTRAINTS)

THREE FACTORS*:

Expected Inflation

Expected path of “real” rates

Residual rate or Term Premium

*COMPONENTS OF YIELD

slide37

Note decline in Term Premium

If inflation is close to NOMINAL rate – the other two

components make slightly “negative” contributions

slide38

FACTORS AT WORK:

  • Ten year yield is an expectation
  • Fed effects changes in “nominal” rates
  • If inflation moves slowly, real rates are “controlled”
  • In the longer term (real world) rates are determined primarily by NON-MONETARY FACTORS
  • The 10-year rate is “predictive” of expectations of a slow cyclical recovery and slow long-term growth rates
slide39

MOVING FORWARD (THE DYNAMIC)

  • …”Move toward more normal rates over the next several years”
  • “Normalization of Term Premium might also contribute “(to the rise)
  • “Next chart illustrates (4) possible paths….”
  • “…the basic message is clear—long-term interest rates are expected to rise gradually over the next few years”

Source: Bernanke quotes in speech

slide41

RANGE COMPUTATIONS

Note: Up/Down ranges are quite equalized

slide42

RISKS FROM THE FED PERSPECTIVE

  • RATES WILL REMAIN LOW
  • THEY WILL NOT

FED POSITION

“I hope my discussion this evening has convinced you that, at least in economic circumstances of the sort that prevail today, such an approach [increasing rates] could be quite costly and might well be counterproductive from the standpoint of promoting financial stability.”

alaska air group inc alk
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo. It offers extensive north/south service within the western United States, Canada, and Mexico; passenger and cargo services to and within the state of Alaska; and long-haul east/west service to Hawaii and 13 cities in the mid-continental and eastern United States. The company offers passenger air services to approximately 24 million passengers and fly to approximately 100 destinations. As of December 31, 2011, its fleet consisted of 117 Boeing 737 jet aircraft and 48 Bombardier Q400 turboprop aircraft. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Source: FinViz.com, March 2013

alaska air group inc alk1
Alaska Air Group, Inc (ALK)

POSITIVES:Alaska Air offered new flights which helped add to their 8% increase over 2011 numbers. Passenger revenue per available seat mile also increased nearly 3%. Lower fuel expenses offset higher maintenance and ancillary costs. All told, earnings grew 21% year over year.

Possible concerns:If fuel prices spike or the global economy fails to gain sufficient traction, it would surely weigh on results of the forthcoming fleet modernization program.

Sources: Value Line, March 2013

slide49

March 2013 Stock Picks

3

As of February 28, 2013 - Subject to change.

slide50

FINVIZ SUMMARY

Barclays Upgrade 3/4/2013

Target $63.00

slide51

FEB 2013 DATA

Improving Steadily In All Metrics

slide58

ALASKA AIR, OTHER AIRLINES SOAR AS PROSPECTS IMPROVE

The Transportation-Airlines industry group posted the largest gain in the past eight weeks among the 197 industries tracked by IBD.

The top advances in the industry include Spirit Airlines (SAVE), up 31% year to date, Alaska Air Group (ALK), up 29% and SkyWest (SKY), up 19%.

Another boost came Feb. 22 from the Department of Transportation, which reported passenger traffic increased 0.8%, year over year, in November. Domestic travelers inched up 0.4% while international passengers jumped 4.3%.

slide70

SWAPS & “SPREADS”

IGNORE AT YOUR PERIL

slide71

CREDIT ANTICIPATES – EQUITY CONFIMS

Note: Status = No impact

Status = Negative Impact

As Of: 3/13/2013

slide73

QUESTIONS & COMMENTS

THANKS FOR JOINING US!

slide74

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Content is intended for investment professional use/review only. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot Investments.com), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for any investment professional’s clients portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. The investment professional retains all decision making authority as to whether or not to follow and/or implement any of the presentation content. BigFoot has absolutely no responsibly for any suitability determination pertaining to any of the investment professional’s clients, such obligation being exclusively the initial and ongoing responsibility of the investment professional. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot Investments.com. BigFoot Investments.com. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Investment Professional acknowledges that to the extent required to do so, it is his/her/its exclusively responsibility to advise his/her/its employer/broker-dealer of its BigFoot subscription. BigFoot Investments.com is a service of Lee Johnson Capital Management, an SEC registered investment adviser located in Fort Worth, Texas. A copy of the Lee Johnson Capital Management LLC’ current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

No Sharing of Content: You acknowledge that the presentation content is for investment professional use only. You warrant and represent not to share any portion of the presentation content with any non-subscriber, including but not limited to your clients or prospects