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Providing Operational Weather Support for Urban wildfire interfaces

Providing Operational Weather Support for Urban wildfire interfaces. Mark Jackson Meteorologist in Charge NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard. Scope of the issue?.

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Providing Operational Weather Support for Urban wildfire interfaces

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  1. NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007 Providing Operational Weather Support for Urban wildfire interfaces Mark Jackson Meteorologist in Charge NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard

  2. Scope of the issue? Based on 2000 census data, 41.75% of the housing units inCalifornia fall within an Urban Wildfire Interface (UWI)88 cities and 10 million people in Los Angeles County alone • 2003 Southern California Fires:Over 3500 structures destroyed$2.04 billion in property losses $250 million in suppression costs Wildfires in the urban interface can quickly become very damaging and costly – structures burn from the inside out

  3. Southern California Fires Since 2003 Almost 10% of NWS Los Angeles and San Diego CountyWarning Areas burned! NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  4. Where weather fits in • Fire weather support in the urban interface must be:Timely, accurate, consistent,effectively communicated! NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  5. Role of the Weather Forecast OfficeFire weather support Feed initial preparedness Fire Weather Forecasts, Fire Weather Watches, Red Flag Warnings, Trends Feed initial fire response Spot Forecasts IMET SUPPORT

  6. OutlineThe tools for support • Outreach and coordination • A day to day partnership! • Red Flag Warnings • Digital Forecasts in GIS • How they are accessed • LA City Fire Department • Local WRF Santa Ana project • Numerical model high resolution Santa Ana climatology NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  7. Fire weather outreach • Annual meetings with fire agencies • LA County Fire • Los Padres National Forest • Angeles National Forest • San Luis Obispo CDF • Riverside Geographic AreaCoordination Center (GACC) • Goals of these visits • Overview of NWS Los Angeles Fire Weather Program • Reviewing product suite and Red Flag Warning (RFW) criteria • Informs NWS staff of fire agency procedures and operations • Gives users opportunity to provide feedback and suggestions • Build new and enhance existing customer/partner relationships • LA City Fire • Ventura County Fire • Santa Barbara County Fire • Ojai Ranger District NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  8. Listening to the customers “They listen, which is what we want. If we call to make a suggestion, they’ll always listen and tell me whether they can do it, can’t do it, or will get right back to me. The most important thing is that they are there and they listen.” • Los Angeles City Fire Department Assistant Chief Tony Varela, providing service feedback during a recent South Ops fire weather meeting NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  9. Agency FeedbackMark Sanchez – Chief, Ventura County Fire Dept. • Need consistency in forecasts • Especially on large fires with multiple camps • Probability forecasts • Tell me what’s possible • Air quality and mixing heights • Huge to air operations NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  10. Working together Weather Normal 2006 Fuels 2007 Fire preparednessand suppression NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  11. Red Flag Warnings (RFW) • They drive the program • Issued by NWS fire weather zones • Preceded by Fire Weather Watches • Daily conference calls with GACC and surrounding forecast offices during critical fire weather • Calls to fire agencies • Criteria is localized according to customer need and local climatology • Reviewed with agencies annually NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  12. Red Flag WarningsCriteria at WFO Los Angeles/Oxnard Dry fuels and any one of the following:Relative humidity (RH) 15% or less with either sustained winds 25 mph or greater or frequent gusts 35 mph or greater – for 6 hours or more -or- Relative humidity 10% or less for 10 hours or more -or- Widespread and/or significant dry lightning WFO Oxnard average RFW lead time thus far in 2007 is 25 hours NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  13. RFW Wind/RH matrix approach Wind/RH RFW Decision Matrix for Northern CaliforniaWest of the Cascade/Sierra Crest (W = Red Flag Warning) Increasing RH Increasing winds NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  14. RFW feedback • Mixed feedback on number of RFWs • Most ok with number, some say it’s too much • Can potentially cost fire agency thousands of dollars in overtime, lost training time, etc. • How sophisticated do we make the criteria? • Nighttime RH recovery, sophisticated fuel indicators, or seasonal criteria? • Should dry lightning criteria be adjusted for very dry fuels? • No absolute yes/no answer • RFW did not verify in October 2003, but was needed • No RFW prior to Topanga Fire (2005), would not have verified, but was probably needed NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  15. RFW feedbackLos Angeles City Fire Department • Concern with false alarms and extent of warnings • 2007 Oxnard RFW false alarm rate = 0.04 • City may issue Red Flag Alert, prompting parking restrictions in Hollywood Hills • Can’t avoid this as a political issue • Working with city and county to split fire weather zones in the county • Can polygon RFWs resolve issue? • Provides more GIS-friendly information NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  16. NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard (LOX) fire weather zone boundaries Los Angeles CountyValleys (247) and Los Angeles CountyCoast (241) NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  17. Can polygon RFWs help? Some areas within a zone in RFW that don’t belong – for instance, some parts of the Los Angeles County coast, like the Hollywood Hills Polygons could allow formore specificity Hollywood Hills NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  18. What is the NDFD? • National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database • Gridded 1-7 day forecasts of sensible weather elements at the surface (up to hourly) • Near-seamless mosaic of digital forecasts from all NWS field offices • Collaborated between offices and centers • Available to users to create own forecast format • Text, graphic, gridded, and image products NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  19. Is this fine enough resolution? Not seen as ahindrance – thoughadvanced usersadmit 2.5 km ispreferred Designed to givesubjective input onforecast surfaceweather conditions One NDFD grid box 5 km NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  20. The NDFD in fire weather support • First generation input for NWS spot forecasts • Also for NFDRS trends forecast • Input for FARSITE fire behavior model • Also for NFDRS trends forecast • Web-based interactive weather planner • Experimental tool for fire planning • Geographic Information Systems (GIS) • “You’re sitting on a gold mine of data” - Jack Dangermond, President and Founder of Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) – a world leader in GIS software and technology – upon being told of the NDFD (personal communication) NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007

  21. The NDFD in GIS • Users can obtain by converting NDFD Grib data into GIS shapefiles • Requires user several steps • 5 km resolution • Shapefiles available from selected Weather Forecast Office web pages • “Degribbing” done at the local office • Subset of NDFD elements (e.g., for fire weather) NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  22. Feature Service vs. Image/Map Service • Feature Service • Make a request for data across the Internet and receive data back • Can be incorporated with your own geospatial datasets • Allows for data query and analysis • Image/Map Service • Serve maps across the Internet (e.g., Google Maps) • Generally static maps that allow simple panning and zooming • Only need access to Internet; no need for GIS software NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  23. NDFD Shapefiles on a few WFO web pages Los Angeles/Oxnard Salt Lake City MedfordSalt Lake City NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  24. Wind Speed and Direction in ArcGISVarying wind vector symbol sizes and colors Fireboundaries (for scale perspective) Piru (2003) Simi (2003) Topanga (2005) NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  25. Southern California EdisonThe power of the NDFD in GIS! NWS Oxnard provided assistance in using NDFD in their interruptible power program (rolling blackouts) Cannot disrupt power for areas over 105o or below 25o Previous system: One meteorologist forecasting for over 400 individual cities NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  26. Southern California EdisonThe power of the NDFD in GIS! GIS allows them to show areas where power cannot be disrupted In this case, the graphic shows all areas over 105o Saves them time and money! NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007

  27. Access by handheld users? Access to weather information in the field for fireagencies and other emergencyresponders NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  28. Regional and national effortsNDFD in GIS • NWS Southern Region Headquarters working towards implementing NDFD to GIS nationally • Setting up prototype to initially include southern and southwestern regions • Proposal to host shapefiles at NWS Western Region Headquarters • Shapefiles (2.5 km) available for each forecast office and possibly larger geographic areas (i.e. GACCs) • User access through forecast office web pages • User defined domains NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  29. What needs to be done? NDFD in GIS • Commitment to provide easy access to NDFD for use in GIS applications • World of GIS is expanding daily • Data must be fresh (Need Map and Image Service) • Domain should be configurable • 2.5 km • Hosting at regional servers NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  30. Los Angeles Incident Action Mapping SystemA “Common Operational Picture” using GIS mapping capabilities • Developed by Steve Robinson, Pilot III, Los Angeles City Fire Department • Hardware support from Hewlett-Packard; software from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) • Used for a multitude of incident applications • Topanga Fire '05 • Academy Awards '04, '05, and '06 • Grammy's '05 • Simi Valley Fire '03 NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  31. System overview (wildfires) • Fire perimeter data collected via air operations • Successive fire area “shape files” overlaid to determine the speed of the fire front through simple extrapolation • Equipment and personnel then directed to critical areas in immediate threat of the fire • System can also reveal the populated areas mostthreatened by the incident • Shelters, evacuation routes, etc. NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  32. System overview (wildfires) • LA Fire Department helicopters are equipped with Infrared (IR) & video downlink capability. • Aerocomputer - Airborne CPU for creation of geo-referenced shape files NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  33. Computer mapping Ability to plot the perimeter of the disaster/fire and calculate total incident area NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  34. SIMI VALLEY FIRE PROGRESSION & TIMELINE Fire Boundary NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  35. GIS-based interface Selectablebase layers NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  36. How NWS became involved • Los Angeles Times story highlighting system • NWS makes contact with Steve Robinson • First assumed to be sophisticated fire spread model • Further investigation reveals system not designed to ingest weather information, nor is a fire spread model • WFO Los Angeles/Oxnard proposes ingest and use of NDFD winds as additional decision making information • E.g., excessive winds near a fire line can heighten the urgency for response in particular area • Other use of environmental information in other disaster response applications (e.g., HAZMAT) NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  37. Integrating weather information • Could help in subjectively adjusting speed of fire line • Excessive winds or very low relative humidity • 2.5-km, or even 5.0-km, resolution not seen as a deficiency • This is a disaster responsesystem, not a sophisticatedfire spread model NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  38. Update on City of Los Angeles System • External factors and events have delayed full use of NDFD in system • Have relayed information on WFO Los Angeles GIS web page to Steve Robinson • Will hopefully eliminate past barriers to implement • Proof that we can and should facilitate outside system enhancements • More sophisticated fire spread input? NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  39. How can we attain situational awareness? • Highest operational model resolution is 12 km • We know of favored areas for stronger winds • Fire fighters are in the field – but we aren’t • How can forecasters better understand theseconditions? • Can high-res numerical models help? NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  40. High Resolution Santa Ana climatology • Run workstation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model • Triple nest (4 km res.) • Use North American Regional Reanalysis data from Santa Ana cases • Results available as animations or direct input into NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) – NDFD • Results to show preferred areas of strong winds NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  41. Santa Ana simulation using WRF model 2 December 2006 Simulation begins at 12Z 4 km inner nest Wind speed/direction and MSLP Los Angeles NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  42. Need for operational high resolution numerical guidance MM5 guidanceavailable to IMETs working Topanga Fire September 2005 Winds and wind speed6 hr forecast 4 km resolution Topanga fire NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007

  43. Summary and takeaways • Weather support for Urban Wildfire Interface requires aggressive agency partnerships • Cannot apply wilderness wildfire suppression response • Requires quick action and fast response • Requires exploration and application of latest fire weather and suppression technology • NDFD must be “GIS-friendly” • Explore polygon-based RFW • Operational implementation and use of higher resolution numerical model guidance NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

  44. NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007 Thank you! Questions? October 2003

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