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Explores differences in fertility, mortality, and migration across the 32 Scottish council areas, with important policy implications for the Scottish Government.
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Scottish Demography - Local Perspectives • Explores differences between parts of Scotland, looking at the 32 Scottish council areas. • Focus on fertility, mortality and migration, of which there are considerable differences across Scotland. • These differences may have important policy implications for the Scottish Government.
Scotland – Geographic Diversity • Despite a population of only 5.12 million (in 2006), Scotland shows considerable economic and social diversity. • The first main division is between the east – a relatively prosperous area (finance and oil) and the west, an ex-industrial area suffering from relative economic decline. • The second division is between the rural areas: the islands, highlands in the north and southern uplands and the populous urban areas in the central lowlands (or ‘Central Belt’).
Scotland – Geographic Diversity • Considerable differences between characteristics of council areas – generally large rural council areas and small urban council areas. • Largest is the Highland council area (30,659 km2 – roughly the same size as Belgium) with a mid-2006 population of 215,310. • Smallest is the Dundee City council area (60 km2) with a mid-2006 population of 142,170. • Largest mid-2006 population is 580,690 in the Glasgow City council area, smallest is 19,770 in the Orkney Islands council area.
Age Structure • Significant differences in age structures across Scotland –impacts on crude birth & death rates. • In Dumfries & Galloway, Eilean Siar, South Ayrshire, Argyll & Bute and Scottish Borders, more than 25% of the population are aged over 60. • At the other extreme, less than 20% of the populations of West Lothian, North Lanarkshire and City of Edinburgh are aged over 60. • The areas containing large higher education institutions (City of Edinburgh, Dundee City, Glasgow City & Aberdeen City) have high proportions of 15-29 year olds in their populations with City of Edinburgh the highest at 24% (the Scottish average is 19%).
Crude & Standardised Birth Rates • Crude birth rates were standardised to the age composition of Scotland as age structure has a strong influence on crude birth rates • After standardisation, rural areas show a marked improvement in their relative standing and the large urban areas – particularly the traditional ‘University Cities’ become worse. • West Central Scotland shows relatively low rates after standardisation, with the exceptions of East Renfrewshire and North Lanarkshire.
Crude & Standardised Death Rates • Crude death rates were standardised to the age composition of Scotland. • After standardisation, rural areas show a marked improvement in their relative standing (in particular, Dumfries & Galloway, Eilean Siar & South Ayrshire). • Glasgow City becomes much worse as the beneficial effect of a youthful age structure is removed • Standardisation has a similar effect on North Lanarkshire & West Lothian. • Eilean Siar slightly improves its relative standing, but remains an area with very high mortality compared to similar rural areas.
Population Changes 1981-2006 • Scotland declined from 5.18 million in 1981 to 5.12 million in 2006 (-1.2%). • Decline in population not evenly spread across Scotland: • 6 council areas grew by more than 10% (largest was Aberdeenshire at 25%) in the same period • And 6 council areas fell by more than 10% (largest fall was Inverclyde at -19%) • Uneven patterns of growth and decline driven by considerable differences in natural change and migration levels.
Percentage of all live births to unmarried parents by Council area, 2001-05
Percentage of all live births to unmarried parents by Council area, 2001-05 • The highest proportion of births to unmarried mothers are found in Dundee City and in many of the councils in Glasgow area. • Nearly 60% of births in Dundee City are to unmarried parents. • Glasgow City has the highest proportion of births to solely registered mothers (10%) • The Shetland Islands have the lowest proportion of births to solely registered mothers (3%), closely followed by the Orkneys.
Age Specific Death Rates; Males - 15-34 years • Since early ‘80s, Scotland has worsened from 1.01 per 1,000 to 1.19 per 1,000. • Only seven Council Areas have lowered their age specific death rates (for males aged 15 to 34) since the early ‘80s. • Worst area is Eilean Siar (2.14 per 1,000 up from 1.78 per 1,000 in early 80s) • Best area is Stirling (0.75 per 1,000 down from 0.97 per 1,000 in early 80s – the greatest improvement in both absolute and relative terms.) • The largest increase (in both absolute and relative terms) was in the Shetland Islands, which rose from 0.8 per 1,000 in the early 80s to 1.74 per 1,000.
Migration contrastsAll migrants as a percentage of age group population by age group, Edinburgh, 2002-06
Migration contrastsAll migrants as a percentage of age group population by age group, East Lothian, 2002-06
Migration contrastsAll migrants as a percentage of age group population by age group, Orkney Islands, 2002-06
Migration contrastsAll migrants as a percentage of age group population by age group, North Lanarkshire, 2002-06
Migration Contrasts • City of Edinburgh displays typical pattern for university town (similar to Glasgow City, Dundee City & Aberdeen City) with peak in net in-migration of 18 to 24 year old adults entering higher education and employment. • East Lothian is typical of a ‘feeder’ local authority – net out-migration of 18 to 24 year old adults leaving to go on to higher education, but net in-migration of older people and young children as families move in (and commute to Edinburgh). • The relative lack of both higher education and employment opportunities, combined with relative isolation means that a large proportion of young people leave Orkney Islands (which is generally typical of rural areas), however there is a slight net inward migration across older age groups. • North Lanarkshire is typical of Scotland’s less affluent areas, with low levels of gross inward or outward migration.
Migration Contrasts • ‘Mother’s Place of Birth’ data gives a useful indication of where in-migrants may be settling in Scotland. • City of Edinburgh shows the highest proportion of births to mothers not from Scotland. • Glasgow City shows the highest proportion of births to mothers from overseas (predominantly from Asia) • Moray shows the highest proportion of births to mothers from England (most likely to be military families)
Indicators • councils with high standardised death rates tend to show similar characteristics, including: • Low levels of inward migration • High levels of solely registered births • Low levels of qualifications and employment • Converse is true for councils with low standardised death rates, although migration pattern is slightly less clear. • Patterns of standardised birth rates are not strongly associated with patterns of standardised death rates.
Conclusions • A lot of differences • Lack of demographic dynamism in West Central Scotland (high death rates, low international in-migration) • Increasing difference (especially mortality, age of childbirth) • Dynamic rural areas, especially around the cities (high birth rates, low death rates, significant in-migration) • 2006 Annual Report and supplementary data can be downloaded from the GRO(S) website: • http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/annrep/index.html
Standardised Natural Change • Charts give an indication of underlying growth, stripped of the influence of age structure and can give an indication of relative demographic performance. • In 1981-85, only 6 councils had an Standardised Birth Rate below Standardised Death Rate. By 2001-05, this had increased to 17 councils. • The 4 ‘city’ council areas (Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Dundee & Glasgow) have negative underlying natural change in both time periods. • Affluent rural / suburban councils tend to have positive underlying natural change in both periods.
