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Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario. Se-Yeun Lee 1 , Alan F. Hamlet 2,1 Carolyn J. Fitzgerald 3 Stephen J. Burges 1 Dennis P. Lettenmaier 1, 2. Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW CSES Climate Impacts Group, UW

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optimized flood control in the columbia river basin for a global warming scenario

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario

Se-Yeun Lee1,

Alan F. Hamlet 2,1

Carolyn J. Fitzgerald3

Stephen J. Burges1

Dennis P. Lettenmaier1, 2

Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW

CSES Climate Impacts Group, UW

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District

slide3

Red - Negative Trend

Blue – Positive Trend

Trends in April 1 Snowpack from 1950-1997

Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49

slide4

As the West warms,

spring flows rise and summer flows drop

Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, 2005: Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America, J. Climate, 18 (8): 1136-1155

Red - Negative Trend

Blue – Positive Trend

slide5

Hydrologic Impacts of Global Warming on Snowmelt Dominant Rivers

  • Increased Winter Flows
  • Reduced Spring Snowpack
  • Earlier Melt
  • Earlier Spring Peak Flow
  • Decreased Summer Flow
slide6

Flood Control vs. Refill

: Current Climate

Full

slide7

Flood Control vs. Refill

: Current Climate

: + 2.25 oC No adaption

Streamflow timing shifts can reduce the reliability of reservoir refill

+ 2.25 oC

Full

slide8

Flood Control vs. Refill

: Current Climate

: + 2.25 oC No adaption

: + 2.25 oC plus adaption

Streamflow timing shifts can reduce the reliability of reservoir refill

+ 2.25 oC

Full

objective

Refill

Flood Control

Objective:
  • Develop Systems Engineering Procedures for Rebalancing Flood Control and Reservoir Refill
test case the columbia river basin
Test Case: The Columbia River Basin

Multi-objective Reservoir System

  • Flood Control
  • Hydropower
  • Instream Flow
  • Water Supply
  • Recreation
  • Navigation
slide11

Bonners Ferry

Columbia Falls

The Dalles

Major U.S. Flood Control Checkpoints

methods

Optimization –Simulation Models

Methods
  • Developing Optimized Flood Control Curves
  • Testing and refining Proposed Rule Curves
hec prm
HEC-PRM

(Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Prescriptive Model)

  • Optimization model developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers
  • Penalty functions are used to constrain the Columbia River basin system operation
  • Flood control penalties
  • Storage penalties
colsim
ColSim

(Columbia Simulation Model)

  • Flood control
  • Hydropower
  • Irrigation
  • Instream flow
  • Navigation
  • Recreation
calibration results flood control

Columbia Falls

Bonners Ferry

The Dalles

Calibration Results (Flood Control)

Red - Current FC

Blue - Optimized FC

slide19

VIC Hydrologic Model

(Variable Infiltration Capacity Hydrologic Model)

  • Macroscale Hydrologic Model developed by University of Washington
climate change scenario
Climate Change Scenario
  • Remove historic monthly temperature trends from the daily time step forcing data
  • Increase the temperatures by 2 oC (annual average) in a seasonal pattern derived from several GCM simulations
  • Observed precipitation
slide23

Current Flood Rule Curves

  • Flood Control Rule Curves are selected by Apr-Jul Flow Volume
slide24

New Flood Rule Curves

  • Find Flow Volume Ranges for each category with an equal number of events
slide25

FC 4

New Flood Rule Curves

  • Find Flow Volume Ranges for each category with an equal number of events
  • Use 80thpercentile values for each categories as a Flood Rule Curve

: 17 ensemble traces

: 80th percentile of ensembles

dworshak storage dworshak apr jul flow volume 2 40 maf

Feb

Mar

Dworshak storage(Dworshak Apr-Jul flow volume >2.40 MAF)

a) 20th Century Climate

b) Climate Change Scenario

: Ensemble traces

: 80th percentile of ensembles

libby storage libby apr aug flow volume 5 5 maf

Mar

Apr

Libby storage (Libby Apr-Aug flow volume >5.5 MAF)

a) 20th Century Climate

b) Climate Change Scenario

: Ensemble traces

: 80th percentile of ensembles

  • The changes in flood control rule curves are different for different projects
refill probability of libby

Full

Refill Probability of Libby

(Libby Apr-Aug flow volume>5.5 MAF)

refill probability of dworshak
Refill Probability of Dworshak

(Dworshak Apr-Jul flow volume >2.40 MAF)

changes in reservoir storage

: The Dalles Apr-Aug < 68 MAF

: 68 <= The Dalles Apr-Aug <100 MAF

: The Dalles Apr-Aug >=100 MAF

  • Greatest Improvement occurs in Mid flow years ( )
Changes in Reservoir Storage
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Optimization studies provide an objective method for rebalancing flood control and refill objectives in complex reservoir systems in response to hydrologic changes.
  • The changes in flood control rule curves are different for different projects, corresponding to different changes in flow volume and timing associated with warming in each sub basin.
conclusions1
Conclusions
  • Optimized flood control rule curves show reduced flood evacuation and earlier refill timing; up to one month earlier for a climate change scenario, compared with 20th century climate.
  • For the climate change scenario, optimized flood rule curves increase reservoir refill as well as the system storage in moderate and high flow years, while providing comparable levels of local and system-wide flood protection in comparison to the current flood control rule curves.
future work
Future Work
  • Extension and refinement of our methods using daily time step optimization and simulation models is needed to evaluate the robustness of these techniques in more detailed planning studies.