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DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM. BASIS STATISTICS BUSINESS CALCULUS Quantitative Business Analysis ----PLUS—TWO ELECTIVES--------- BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS BUS 196D DATA MINING. POTENTIAL ELECTIVES. STATISTICS II Quantitative Methods for Supply Chain PLANNING

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decision sciences certificate program
DECISION SCIENCES CERTIFICATE PROGRAM
  • BASIS STATISTICS
  • BUSINESS CALCULUS
  • Quantitative Business Analysis
  • ----PLUS—TWO ELECTIVES---------
  • BUS 191 DECISION ANALYSIS
  • BUS 196D DATA MINING
potential electives
POTENTIAL ELECTIVES
  • STATISTICS II
  • Quantitative Methods for Supply Chain PLANNING
  • DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
  • FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
bus 191 decision making under uncertainty dr ron davis

BUS 191: DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTYDr. Ron Davis

BT 355: 408-924-3547

davis_r@cob.sjsu.edu

www.cob.sjsu.edu/facstaff/davis_r/

ron@mathproservices.com

www.mathproservices.com

office hours
Office Hours
  • BT 355; (408) 924-3547
  • MW 3:15-5:45pm; Tue 2:45-5:45pm
  • Online the night before exams in Elluminate Chatroom for BUS191
prerequisites
PREREQUISITES
  • MATH 70 – Finite Math (optional)
  • BUS 90 – Business Statistics
  • Equivalency Forms Signed
reference text
REFERENCE TEXT
  • MAKING HARD DECISIONS with DecisionTools by Robert Clemen/Terence Reilly
  • The DecisionTools Suite from Palisade Corp.
  • Course Reader Chapters
topics in decision analysis
TOPICS IN DECISION ANALYSIS
  • PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
    • Discrete
    • Continuous
  • UTILITY FUNCTIONS – (Exponential)
  • BASIC DECISION PROBLEM
    • EVPI and CEVPI
  • DECISION TREES AND BAYESIAN INVERSION
    • EVSI and CEVSI
  • INFLUENCE DIAGRAMS – (Data Structures)
  • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
    • RAINBOW DIAGRAMS
    • TORNADO DIAGRAMS
  • SOFTWARE ADD-INS from PALISADE CORP
    • Case Studies
excel add ins
EXCEL ADD-INS
  • The DecisionTools Suite
    • RISKview – Distribution viewing tool
    • BestFit – Data Fitting with multiple distributions
    • @RISK – Risk analysis and Simulation
    • PrecisionTree – influence diagrams and decision trees
    • TopRank – “What if” sensitivity analysis tool
    • RISKOptimizer – optimization of simulation models
blackboard web course technology
BlackBoard WEB Course Technology
  • http://sjsu6.blackboard.com
  • WebCT account
    • UserID = Student ID with “W” in front
    • Password = spring (or your choice)
  • BUS 191 will be in your course list
blackboard features
Blackboard FEATURES
  • Course Content
  • Calendar
  • eMail
  • Bulletin Board
  • Chat Room
basis for grade
BASIS FOR GRADE
  • Four Computer Projects
    • 50 or 100 points each
    • Data Analysis – Best Fit
    • Distribution Analysis – RISKview
    • Simulation - @Risk and RISKOptimizer
    • Decision Analysis – PrecisionTree and TopRank
  • Three Exams
    • MidTerms 1 & 2: 150 points
    • Final: 250 points
  • Extra Credit
    • 10 URLS on OR/MS in use today
    • ~25 points per project
extra credit adjustment formula
EXTRA CREDIT ADJUSTMENT FORMULA
  • ST = Semester point Total
  • EC = Extra Credit point total
  • SA = Adjusted Score
  • SA= 850*(ST+EC)/(850+EC)
  • SA computed in EXCEL not Blackboard
  • Computations done in Excel, does not show in WebCT
exam rules
EXAM RULES
  • CHEAT SHEETS ALLOWED
    • One page notes each midterm
    • Three pages for the final
  • CHEATING NOT ALLOWED
    • No talking until you leave the room
    • No passing of papers back and forth
    • No copying of answers from neighbor
    • Sharing of points for identical answers
hints for your success
HINTS FOR YOUR SUCCESS
  • Use a three ring notebook binder
  • Print stuff from the web
  • Punch holes in your printout and store in your three ring binder
  • Work all the practice problems
  • Browse the web using search engines for extra credit points and related info