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Offshoring: New Perspective on a Policy Issue

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  1. Offshoring: New Perspective on a Policy Issue Loren Yager, Ph.D. Director, International Affairs and Trade U.S. GAO

  2. Offshoring: Looking Back to 2004 Significant political issue in 2004 campaign • widespread congressional interest • scale and nature of change not understood Goals of 2004 GAO report • define offshoring • examine available data

  3. A Framework for Discussion:Linking Key Concepts to Available Data U.S. foreign direct investment Imports of services U.S. employment displaced

  4. Narrow Definition of ‘Offshoring’:Displacement and Imports U.S. foreign direct investment Imports of services Firms import services from foreign suppliers, displacing U.S. employment Firms import services from their foreign affiliates, displacing U.S. employment U.S. employment displaced

  5. Broad Definition of ‘Offshoring’:Other Combinations U.S. foreign affiliates produce services for foreign markets Firmsimport services from their foreign affiliates Firms import services from foreign suppliers U.S. foreign affiliates displace U.S. exports or services in foreign markets U.S. Employment displaced for reasons other than offshoring

  6. Available Data: Imports of Services U.S. foreign direct investment Imports of services U.S. employment displaced

  7. U.S. Imports of Services:Categories of Private Services

  8. Imports of Services:Trends in Key BPT Categories Includes imports from unaffiliated firms

  9. Imports of Services:BPT Imports from India, 2002-2006

  10. Imports of Services:Source Countries of BPT Imports, 2006

  11. Available Data:U.S. Foreign Direct Investment U.S. Foreign Direct Investment Imports of Services U.S. employment displaced U.S. employment displaced

  12. U.S. Foreign Direct Investment: Selected Destinations, 2006

  13. U.S. Foreign Direct Investment:Share of Subsidiary Sales to U.S., 2005 Majority owned service firms

  14. Available Data:U.S. Employment Displaced U.S. Foreign Direct Investment Imports of Services U.S. employment displaced

  15. U.S. Employment Displaced:Mass Layoff Survey, 2007

  16. U.S. Employment Displaced:Trends in Employment, 2001 to 2008 Data from March 2001 to January 2008

  17. Summary: Additional Years Provide Perspective Changes in economy create measurement challenges • available statistics don’t always capture trends • efforts needed to better define and measure Uncertainty surrounding trends significantly reduced • improved collection • additional years of data • modeling and estimation