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Investigation of Spatial Mosquito Population Trends Using EOF Analysis: Model Vs Count Data in Pasco County Florida

Investigation of Spatial Mosquito Population Trends Using EOF Analysis: Model Vs Count Data in Pasco County Florida. Cory Morin. Presentation Outline. Outline of Objectives of Study Background of Research – Why Study Mosquitoes? Introduction to DyMSiM

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Investigation of Spatial Mosquito Population Trends Using EOF Analysis: Model Vs Count Data in Pasco County Florida

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  1. Investigation of Spatial Mosquito Population Trends UsingEOF Analysis: Model Vs Count Data in Pasco County Florida Cory Morin

  2. Presentation Outline • Outline of Objectives of Study • Background of Research – Why Study Mosquitoes? • Introduction to DyMSiM • Model Runs + Correlation and Regression Coefficients • EOF Analysis • Conclusions and Discussion

  3. Objectives • Validate Model (DyMSiM) with Mosquito Count Data • Using 25 Locations within Pasco County Florida (1995-1997,2002-2004) • Correlation Coefficients (Daily) • Regression Coefficients (Daily, Weekly, and Monthly) • EOF Analysis of Model and Trap Data • Spring, Summer, and Fall (weekly)

  4. Mosquitoes: Aedes Aegypti • Characteristics • Urban, Container Breeding Mosquito • Tropical Habitat • Dengue Fever Vector • Dengue Fever • 100 Million Cases a Year Worldwide • 4 Serotypes without Cross Immunity • Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever from Multiple Infections Picture taken from http://www.interet-general.info/IMG/Aedes-Aegypti-2.jpg Picture from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/ dengue/map-distribution-2005.htm

  5. Mosquitoes: Culex Quinquefasciatus • Characteristics • Urban Mosquito • Feeds on Humans and Animals • West Nile Virus Vector • West Nile Virus • Arrived in New York 1999 • Symptoms: Mild Fever-Encephalitis Image taken from http://www.lahey.org/Medical/ InfectiousDiseases/WestNileVirus.asp Data fromCDC.gov

  6. Modeling Mosquitoes • Inputs • Temperature, Precipitation, Latitude • Evaporation Derived (Hamon’s Equation) • Irrigation/Land Cover • Governing Rules • Development Rates • Death Rates • Reproductive Rates • Larval/Pupa Capacity • Water Flux (sources and sinks)

  7. Conceptual Model (DyMSiM) Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model

  8. Data • Temperature Data was Obtained from the National Climate Data Center • Precipitation Data was Obtained from the National Climate Data Center and The Pasco County Vector and Mosquito Control District • Mosquito Data was Obtained from the Pasco County Vector and Mosquito Control District Image from http://pix.epodunk.com/locatorMaps/fl/FL_8834.gif

  9. Sample of Model Run

  10. Regression + Correlation Coefficients • Regression Coefficient • Best fit line in the data that minimizes the sum of the square of the error • Shows how the magnitude of one variable changes with another • Correlation Coefficient • Calculated from the square root of the variance explained • Describes the relationship between two variables (Range from -1 to 1)

  11. Correlation/Pearson Coefficients

  12. EOF Analysis • Used to Analyze Spatial Patterns in a Dataset • The 1st EOF Shows the Largest Fraction of Variance Explained in a Dataset • Found from Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors • Only a limited number of EOFs are Significant (North Test)

  13. Spring North Test - The first two EOFs in both Whisker Plots are Significant

  14. EOF 1 for Spring 1st EOF for Trap Data 1st EOF for Model Data

  15. EOF 2 for Spring 2nd EOF Trap Data 2nd EOF Model Data

  16. Summer North Test Only EOF 1 is Significant for the Summer

  17. EOF 1 for Summer 1st EOF for Trap Data 1st EOF for Model Data

  18. Fall North Test The 1st and 2nd EOFs are Significant

  19. EOF 1 for Fall 1st EOF for Trap Data 1st EOF for Model Data

  20. EOF 2 for Fall 2nd EOF for Trap Data 2nd EOF Model Data

  21. Conclusions • 1st EOF Dominates in Each Season for both Trap and Model Data • One individual location sticks out in particular (Large Population) • 2nd EOF: Model and Trap Data share some common characteristics but are not identical • Physical Mechanisms Behind the EOFs Need to be Analyzed (Surface Cover / Precipitation Patters) • Overall, the EOF Analysis Supports the Utility and Accuracy of DyMSiM

  22. Model Limitations • “All Models are Wrong, Some are Useful” -George Box • The model only accounts for climate and land use factors • Predation, Pesticides, Food Availability, Human Behaviors, and Migration are not accounted for • Trap Data is Not Truth • Trapping mosquitoes may largely effect population dynamics • Microenvironments are important for mosquitoes but are not caught with climate data

  23. Thank You for Your Attention Any Questions?

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