1 / 8

DTC Verification Activities

This document outlines the verification activities conducted by the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) under the leadership of Barbara Brown. It covers the history and philosophy of testing and evaluation, detailing various statistical methods, verification tools, and current testing activities. Highlighting the DTC's commitment to independent and rigourous testing, it discusses verification methodologies and community engagement in improving forecast performance. Special emphasis is placed on advanced verification tools, workshops, and the evaluation of operational forecasting environments.

tadhg
Download Presentation

DTC Verification Activities

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. DTC Verification Activities Barbara Brown Director, Joint Numerical Testbed NCAR/RAL 12 August 2009

  2. DTC Verification Activities • Testing and Evaluation: History and Philosophy • Statistics and verification methods • Verification tools • Current testing activities

  3. DTC Time Line Community Codes Visitor Program Test & Evaluate NWP Systems

  4. Testing and Evaluation DTC Philosophy • Independent of development process • Carefully designed test plan • Large number of cases • Broad range of weather regimes • Extensive objective verification, including assessment of statistical significance

  5. Displacement 25 km Displacement 30 km Application of MODE to 4-km WRF Verification research in JNT Goals: • Verification tools that provide meaningful information about forecast performance for forecast improvement and decision making • Spatial methods • Inference methods (“Is model A really better than model B?”) • Methods for particular applications (e.g., winds) • Methods for extreme (high-impact) weather events • Engage community in testing and evaluating new methodologies • Workshops • Method intercomparison project (upcoming special issue of WAF)

  6. DTC community verification tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET): Tressa Fowler • Community software for advanced, state-of-the-art user-oriented forecast verification • Community workshops yearly • New and traditional approaches • MODE, Brown et al. • Neighborhood verification methods • CRA method, Ebert-McBride • Intensity scale, Casati • Probabilistic forecast capabilities http://www.dtcenter.org/met/users/

  7. Current testing and evaluation activities • Hydrometeorological Testbed (Boulder): Ed Tollerud • Demonstration of verification methods for ensemble precipitation forecasts and “atmospheric rivers” over the mountainous West • Hazardous Weather Testbed (Norman, OK): Tara Jensen • Evaluation of impact of radar data assimilation on predictions of severe thunderstorms • T&E in an operational forecasting environment • Comparison of precipitation forecasts from global and regional models • Evaluation of the impacts of a new boundary layer scheme (QNSE) • Support next-generation operational systems (reference configurations)

  8. Discussion topics • EMC suggestions for • DTC testing and evaluation activities • Reference configurations • Collaboration between DTC and EMC on verification methods and method development

More Related