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HMT-DTC Task. Ed Tollerud In collaboration with ESRL, RFC’s, WFO’s, and CDWR. DTC Goals and the HMT. Provide early step up for front-line forecasters vis-à-vis ensemble usage Demonstrate usefulness of prototype ensemble forecast systems; thereby

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hmt dtc task

HMT-DTC Task

Ed Tollerud

In collaboration with ESRL, RFC’s, WFO’s, and CDWR

dtc goals and the hmt
DTC Goals and the HMT
  • Provide early step up for front-line forecasters vis-à-vis ensemble usage
  • Demonstrate usefulness of prototype ensemble forecast systems; thereby
  • provide long-range guidance for ensemble forecast systems
  • Enhance and motivate MET development

HMT-West ensemble QPF evaluation is current focus to attain these goals

major accomplishments past 6 months
Major accomplishments - past 6 months
  • Online WRF ensemble verification in near-real-time:
    • Regionalization of HMT domain
    • 30-day summaries
    • Observational data options
  • Object-based (MODE/MET) verification of historical atmospheric rivers
  • Direct comparison between GFS and WRF ensemble mean
online qpf verification for hmt west
Online QPF verification for HMT-West
  • Equitable Threat Scores (ETS) for ensemble members
  • Forecasts initiated at 1200 UTC 1/17 2010
  • Ensemble mean (black)
  • GFS (green)
  • 30-day summary boxplots, ETS
  • January 2010
  • Large HMT domain
  • Intensity thresholds: .01,.1,.5,1,3 in
planned activities next 6 months
Planned activities - next 6 months
  • Revise and expand winter exercise verification demonstration website
  • Prepare and present preliminary results from 2009-2010 winter exercise verification
  • Develop probabilistic capabilities for QPF in the HMT
  • Continue retrospective study of MET/MODE applications to atmospheric river forecasts
anticipated major accomplishments next 6 months
Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 months
  • Following features added to HMT-West winter verification exercise:
    • 1-2 new additional baseline models (SREF, NAM,…)
    • Time series display of MODE attributes
    • Displays of reliability and ROC diagrams
    • 6h gage accumulation options
plans for aop 2011
Plans for AOP 2011
  • Incorporate spatial verification statistics for ensembles
  • Implement METvieweronline displays
  • Collaborate with DET to apply MET-based probabilistic verification techniques
  • Develop procedures to assess gridded QPE products and their impact on verification
  • Extend verification to additional meteorological fields
  • Implement prototype AR verification utility
anticipated major accomplishments aop 2011
Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011
  • Revised and expanded verification options appropriate for HMT (West and East)
  • Comprehensive suite of probabilistic verification utilities applied to QPF for HMT
  • Object-based verification techniques implemented for AR forecasting
  • Reports and presentations from HMT-West verification activities
challenges science and resources
Challenges (Science and Resources)
  • Establishing synergistic roles of DET and DTC vis-à-vis ensemble verification
  • Determining potential use and advantages for regional and episodic verification
  • Developing appropriate down-scaling

methods for baselining and comparison

  • Improving forecaster access to results of

evaluation (ALPS? AWIPS?)

  • Validating long-range point precipitation

forecast for Tillamook for September 2011

hwt dtc collaboration

HWT-DTC Collaboration

Tara Jensen

Collaborating with:

NOAA: SPC, NSSL, HPC, AWC, ESRL, EMC

Universities: OU/CAPS

NCAR: MMM

UCAR: COMET

hwt dtc collaboration goals
HWT-DTC Collaboration Goals
  • Explore a different R2O Paradigm
    • “O” is Forecasters, WFOs, and Prediction Centers
  • Evaluate convection allowing models on leading edge of NWP
  • Gather robust dataset for ensemble and deterministic studies
    • Datasets and algorithms leveraged by DET
  • Demonstrate utility of MET-based objective evaluation in a forecast environment
    • Provide near real-time evaluation during Spring Experiment
    • Application of MET feeds back to MET development
  • Facilitate faster R2O through focused evaluation of key topics identified during Spring Experiment
    • Perform retrospective studies using DTCs METviewer
major accomplishments past 6 months1
Major accomplishments - past 6 months
  • Enormous expansion of near real-time evaluation capability
    • Evaluation of 30 models during Spring Experiment (CAPS ensemble+3 operational baselines)
    • 10 Deterministic and 4 Ensemble products evaluated using traditional and spatial verification methods.
    • Three additional research models available for retrospective studies
  • DTC staff participation in each week of Spring Experiment 2010
  • Manuscript accepted by AMS Weather and Forecasting.(Kain et. al, 2010 on Impact of radar assimilation on short-term forecasts)
2010 hwt spring experiment 30 models
2010 HWT Spring Experiment – 30 models

CAPS SSEF Ensemble PM Mean

CAPS 1 km Model

CAPS SSEF ARW-CN(control w/ radar assimilation)

3 km HRRR

12km NAM

CAPS SSEF ARW-C0(control w/o radar assimilation)

  • Assimilation continues to show greater skill over no-assimilation
  • CAPS Ens. Mean generally has
  • higher skill than 1km deterministic and Operational baselines
planned activities next 6 months1
Planned activities - next 6 months
  • Complete re-run of Spring Experiment evaluation
  • Add additional probabilistic measures(Brier Skill Score, ReliabilityDiagrams, and ROC Curves)
  • Perform retrospective evaluation of all members/products

Probabilistic Verification of

Ensemble Products (for a Single Run)

Brier Score and decomposition

CAPS Simple

CAPS Neighborhood

SREF Simple

anticipated major accomplishments next 6 months1
Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 months
  • Analysis for presentations (Severe Local Storms and AMS)
    • Investigate physics perturbations on Accumulated Precip. and Reflectivity
    • Evaluate performance of probability products for QPF
    • Determine meaningful metrics from object-oriented evaluation of Radar Echo Top
  • Report on impact of Radar Assimilation on 0-12 hr forecast
  • Targeted analysis using METviewerto facilitate 2011 Spring Experiment planning
  • Quality-checked and complete dataset available to collaborators for their own investigation
plans for aop 20111
Plans for AOP 2011
  • Contribute to R2O into SPC, HPC and AWC? by providing objective evaluation for their Spring Experiment foci:
    • Severe
    • Convective Initiation/Lightning
    • QPF/Heavy Rain
    • Ensemble Product Evaluation
  • Perform retrospective studies
    • Provide feedback to researchers on ensemble configuration and product generation
  • Leverage DET Verification Module
  • Help develop link between DET and HWT
anticipated major accomplishments aop 20111
Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011
  • Near real-time objective evaluation for:
    • Simulated Satellite
    • Lightning Product
    • QPF and Probabilistic (PQPF) fields
    • Reflectivity (if desired)
  • Evaluation products available within 30 min – 2 hours of valid time (rather than 6-18 hours)
  • DTC staff member participationduring each week of Spring Experiment
  • Submit Journal article on QPF/PQPF evaluation
resource requirements for aop 2011
Resource requirements for AOP 2011

* Spring Experiment participant

Compute Resources: HPC facility like NOAA-Jet system or NCAR Bluefire system

Goal is to use DET Verification Module.

challenges
Challenges
  • How to balance expectations with budget
    • HWT Collaboration started small
    • Success has garnered more requests and expectation
    • Budget has not grown
  • How to serve the needs of additional testbeds
    • AWC planning to start separate Aviation Weather Testbed
      • Indicated interest in DTC participation - How do we fund activity?
    • HPC planning to continue using HWT facility
      • What if their evaluation needs expand?
  • Defining HWT-DTC Collaboration and DET interaction
    • What is appropriate evolution of these complimentary tasks?
dtc ensemble testbed

DTC Ensemble Testbed

Zoltan Toth

Collaborators: NOAA/NCEP/EMC

DET website: http://www.dtcenter.org/det

goals for setting up new det task
Goals for setting up new DET task
  • Develop and maintain DET infrastructure
    • Support its use by community
  • Establish NCEP operational system as benchmark
  • Test and evaluate new community methods
  • Transition successful methods to NCEPand other agencies
  • Link up with ensemble work in other test-beds
det modules
DET MODULES

Module 1: Configuration

Module 2: Initial Perturbations

Module 3: Model Perturbations

Module 4: Statistical Post-Processing

External Input(HMT, HWT, HFIP, etc)

Module 5: Product Generation

Module 6: Verification

major accomplishments past 6 months2
Major accomplishments - past 6 months
  • Initial plans developed for
    • Overall architecture of DET infrastructure
    • Each of 6 modules
    • Test and Evaluation
  • Initial tests for establishing basic capabilities for 2 modules
    • Configuration
    • Initial perturbations
  • Collaboration with other DTC tasks / projects
    • HMT – Joint plans for testing DET & HMT ensemble generation
    • HWT – Joint plans for evaluation of 2011 HWT ensemble
  • Outreach
    • Organized DET Workshop and engaged with WRF Ensemble WG
    • Activities coordinated with NCEP/EMC via regular meetings
det workshop
DET Workshop
  • Organized by DTC with input from WRF Ensemble WG
    • Aug. 18-19, Boulder
  • Excellent opportunity for connecting DET with community
    • 50 plus participants from community & agencies
  • Total of 6 Breakout sessions focused on
    • Configuration
    • Preliminary plans for testing
  • Extensive set of important recommendations
    • To be used for updating DET plans
  • WRF Ensemble WG meeting, Aug 20
    • Additional recommendations
planned activities next 6 months2
Planned activities - next 6 months
  • Complete planning for overall design and 6 modules
  • Develop and test initial perturbation methods
    • Collaborate closely with NCEP/EMC for their next implementation
  • Complete protocol for T&E
  • Continue coordination / collaboration with HMT & HWT
  • Leverage winter 2010/11 HMT ensemble for DET testing
  • Prepare for joint evaluation of 2011 HWT ensemble
anticipated major accomplishments next 6 months2
Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 months
  • Detailed plan for infrastructure – overall design plus 6 modules
  • Basic capability for modules 1-2
    • Initial tests contributing to next NCEP implementation
    • In collaboration with NCEP
  • Protocol for T&E & basic capability for verification module (#6)
  • Joint plans / activities with HMT & HWT
    • Testing of generation & verification of ensemble (HMT)
    • Evaluation plan of ensemble (HWT)

Basic capability – Functionality tested / supported

Benchmark – Methods used in operations can be replicated

plans for aop 20112
Plans for AOP 2011
  • Benchmark for module 2
    • Contribute to next NCEP implementation; Replicate next NCEP configuration
  • T&E for module 2
    • Use T&E protocol and verification module
  • Contribute to NCEP implementation for module 2 (FY11-12)
    • Test improved method, contribute with algorithm & software
  • Basic capability for module 3
    • Initial tests with NEMS compatible and WRF models
  • Contribute to design and evaluation of HMT & HWT ensembles
    • Collaborative effort
anticipated major accomplishments aop 20112
Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011
  • Benchmark for module 2
    • Milestone: Build initial perturbation module replicating next NCEP SREF implementation
  • T&E for module 2
    • Milestone: Complete tests of new initial perturbation configuration
  • Contribute to NCEP implementation for module 2 (FY11-12)
    • Milestone: Collaborate with NCEP scientists and contribute to development of new initial perturbation method
  • Basic capability for module 3
    • Milestone: Demonstrate basic capabilities for model-related uncertainty (NEMS / WRF)
  • Contribute to design and evaluation of HMT & HWT ensembles
    • Milestones:
      • Test DET benchmark configuration for initial perturbation module in HMT ensemble
      • Contribution to evaluation of HWT ensemble
challenges1
Challenges
  • Identify CPU resources for computer intensive DET work
    • Internal GSD & NCAR resources very limited
    • Prepare & submit proposals for external resources
  • Agencies and community desire quick setup of & extensive testing by DET
    • Mismatch between funding and expectations
    • How can DTC build benchmarks faster?
    • How can DTC engage other agencies / programs / projects?
      • HFIP, NUOPC, NEXTGEN, FAA, AFWA, etc
  • Contingency plan assuming additional funding
    • Accelerate integrated development of & community support for modules 4-6
      • Basic capability for modules 4-5 – AOP11
      • Benchmark for modules 4-6 – AOP12
det timeline starting march 2011
DET TIMELINE – STARTING MARCH 2011
  • AOP11 deliverables – Basic capabilities, benchmarks
    • Basic capability for module 3
    • Benchmark + T&E for module 2
    • Contribute to NCEP implementation for modules 2 (FY11-12)
    • Contribute to design and evaluation of HMT & HWT ensembles
  • AOP12 deliverables – Benchmarks, T&E
    • Benchmark + T&E for module 3
    • Basic capability for modules 4-5
    • T&E of community methods for module 2
  • AOP13 deliverables
    • Benchmark for modules 4 & 6
    • Contribute to NCEP implementation for module 4 (FY13-14)
    • T&E of community methods for all modules
    • Update benchmarks
dtc nems

DTC NEMS

Laurie Carson

Collaborators: NOAA/NCEP/EMC, NOAA/ESRL

dtc nems goals
DTC NEMS Goals
  • Define community software goals for the NEMS modeling framework and operational model configurations
  • Gain expertise in the NEMS framework, by participating in and assisting the on-going development, with a community support focus
  • Develop an O2R and R2O ops-concept that supports the needs of both the research and the operational user
progress to date past 6 months
Progress to-date: past 6 months
  • Explore approaches and ideas to help define DTC NEMS community software goals and timeline
    • On-going: internal (DTC) and external (EMC, NCAR, GSD) discussions
      • NEMS software status and near-term plans at EMC
      • 1-2 year plans including FIM, RapidRefresh, SREF
      • Technical expert meeting planned to focus on the research and operations connections between WRF and NEMS
  • Develop DTC expertise in NEMS software
    • On-going: technical discussions with NEMS developers
      • Code repository
      • Task/Work plan for Software Engineer hire
    • Software Engineer hire to focus on NEMS development (at EMC)
      • starting Oct 4, 2010
    • Technical Meeting: October 5, 2010
planned activities next 6 months3
Planned activities - next 6 months
  • DTC Software Engineer
    • Will reside at EMC to further facilitate the information exchange and DTC contributions
    • Add in-depth knowledge of NEMS to the DTC
    • Contribute to the development of NEMS software
    • Begin work on a draft code management plan
  • Hold a technical information exchange meeting
    • Fall 2010: DTC, NOAA-EMC, NOAA-GSD, NCAR-MMM
    • overlap between WRF and NEMS with respect to community support
    • maintain a connection with the broad research community
    • use this as a path-finder to explore R2O and O2R mechanisms
anticipated major accomplishments next 6 months3
Anticipated major accomplishments - next 6 months
  • Refine work plan for DTC-NEMS software engineer
    • Add I/O layer capabilities to NEMS that will benefit research communities
    • Computing Platform Portability (systems, compilers)
    • Inter-operability with other community software
    • Users Guides, sample datasets, and examples of use
  • Technical meeting Oct 5, 2010 in Boulder
    • Focus on upcoming interactions between WRF and NEMS components
plans for aop 20113
Plans for AOP 2011
  • Strengthen the foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS software
  • Continue to contribute to the development process for NEMS, with a community user focus.
  • Refine DTC NEMS community software goals and timeline
  • Develop, with EMC, a NEMS code management plan to support community software and operational system goals
anticipated major accomplishments aop 20113
Anticipated major accomplishments – AOP 2011
  • DTC NEMS code management plan
  • Continued Technical Interchange Meetings
  • DTC NEMS community software plan, including a path from R2O and O2R
challenges2
Challenges
  • Engagement of the NWP research community is a critical component to making contributions to the operational NWP capabilities
  • NEMS is still under active development, so any decision to package a software release to the research community must be done with careful coordination between EMC and DTC
  • A fully supported community software package requires considerable resources from DTC. Is this the best use of DTC resources?