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Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda

Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda. Jonathan Fink Vice Provost for Research Arizona State University. Greater Phoenix 2100. What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100? How do we describe Phoenix today? How do we characterize explosive growth?

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Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda

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  1. Greater Phoenix 2100: Building a National Urban Environmental Research Agenda Jonathan Fink Vice Provost for Research Arizona State University

  2. Greater Phoenix 2100 • What kind of Phoenix do we want in 2100? • How do we describe Phoenix today? • How do we characterize explosive growth? • What tools can help forecast our future? • Can science help answer these questions?

  3. What’s being done nationally? • Los Alamos Labs Urban Security Project • USGS Urban Dynamics Project • NSF Urban Research Initiative • Various university institutes • State/regional “smart growth” initiatives • Few Coordinated Activities

  4. Plume dispersion over N. Dallas modeled with HOTMAC-RAPTAD-GASFLOW system Los Alamos Lab Urban Security Initiative

  5. U.S. urban growth: 1975-1995 USGS Urban Dynamics Research Program

  6. What’s missing? • Coordinated Federal effort • Federal/state/private/academic collaborations • Linkage of social, biological, physical • Scientific foundation for growth debates • Tools for forecasting impact of growth

  7. NSF Central Arizona – Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research • Decade-scale monitoring project • 48 co-investigators from 14 departments • ASU partners with State, cities, federal labs • Complement to Baltimore LTER • Ideal platform for urban modeling/analysis

  8. 5 3 CAP is one of two urban LTERs Baltimore Phoenix old city slower growth humid flat activist politics young city rapid growth arid rugged libertarian politics

  9. CAP LTER Objectives • Test ecological theory in urban settings • Better understanding of ecology of cities • Relate ecological and sociological factors • Archive large body of scientific data • Engage public (K-12) in scientific discovery • Spin off additional research opportunities

  10. LTER-related research projectsat ASU (most > $300K/year) • Urban airshed modeling (DOE, ADOT) • Remote sensing of 100 cities (NASA) • Urban CO2 island (NSF-URI) • Urban ecology grad. program (IGERT-NSF) • SW Center for Env. Res. & Policy (EPA) • Center for sustainable water reuse (EPA) • SUPERPAVE (US DOT) • Benign semiconductor manufacturing (NSF)

  11. Why study Phoenix? • Geographically delimited • Resource constrained (water, power) • Relatively simple boundary conditions • Change is very rapid (“An acre an hour”) • Fastest growing county in U.S. • Second fastest growing & fifth largest city • Typical of arid urban west • High tech jobs, little mass transit, cheap land

  12. What are the boundary conditions for modeling Phoenix? • Spatial: city strictly limited by infrastructure • Population: well documented, rapid growth • Cultural: built along Hohokam canals (AD 1000) • Topography/Geology: Basin and Range • Water: canals, reservoirs, streams, groundwater • Air: eastward flow, CO2 dome, “brown cloud” • Land Use: desert agriculture urban • Economy: mining/agriculture high tech/tourism

  13. Urban fringe sharply defined Photo courtesy of Ramon Arrowsmith

  14. Maricopa County land use 1912

  15. Maricopa County land use 1934

  16. Maricopa County land use 1955

  17. Maricopa County land use 1975

  18. Maricopa County land use 1995

  19. Remote sensing used for urban resource management

  20. HOUSING HEALTH POWER HUD NIEHS WATER URBAN SECURITY DOE ADHS APS SRP USGS DOD Motorola ASU ADWR EPA Intel AIR MANU- FACTURING Phoenix DOC ADEQ ADOC NSF NOAA ADOT Biosphere DOT MAG CLIMATE ADOA Lincoln Institute NASA TRANSPORTATION USFS BLM USDA FORESTS Greater Phoenix 2100 LAND USE AGRICULTURE

  21. Greater Phoenix 2100 Targets • Physical Environment • Air (ADEQ) (EPA) • Water (ADWR, ADEQ) (EPA, USGS) • Climate (Biosphere) (NOAA) • Forests (ADOA) (USFS) • Agriculture (ADOA) (USDA) • Social Environment • Health (ADHS) (NIH) • Housing (ADOC) (HUD) • Education (AZ DOEd) (USDOEd) • Infrastructure • Land Use (ASLD, Lincoln) (DOI) • Power (APS, SRP) (DOE) • Transportation (ADOT, MAG) (USDOT) • Manufacturing (Intel, Motorola) (US DOC) • Urban Security (LANL, DARPA, Nat Grd)

  22. Greater Phoenix 2100:Which Phoenix do we want? • Coordinate federal/state/academic efforts • Link with similar studies of other cities • Answer questions people care about • Provide objective information • Build state-of-the-art forecasting tools • Start of urban-LTER network across USA

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