Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future

1. Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Sarah Keeley Education Officer ErlandKällén Director of Research

2. ECMWF An independent intergovernmental organisation established in 1975 Currently: 20 Member States 14 Co-operating States

4. How ECMWF was established • Start of operational activities • 1978 Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A) • Start of operations • N48 grid point model – 200km

5. Current system • IBM Cluster • Two identical systems for resiliency • 1.5 Petaflops peak performance (1.5×1015) • Operational Model - T1279 (16km) • Ensemble Prediction System - T639 (31km)

6. Evolution of ECMWF scores ~16km ~210km Adapted and extended from Simmons & Hollingsworth (2002)

7. Physical aspects, included in IFS

8. Data assimilation

10. Predictability, diagnostics and extended-range forecasting The atmosphere is a chaotic system • Small errors can grow to have major impact (butterfly effect) • This limits detailed weather prediction to a week or so ahead • Slowly evolving components of the climate system can give predictability at longer timescales

12. Meteorological Operations

13. ECMWFResearch Erland Källén Director of Research ECMWF

14. Outline • Operational scores • Data assimilation • Clouds and surface processes • Forecast busts • Increasing resolution • Ensemble prediction • Reanalysis • Chemical modelling and assimilation

15. Quality of 500 hPa forecasts at day 6 Error reduction ↑ ECMWF NCEP ERA reforecasts UKMO

17. Data assimilation • Variational assimilation • Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) • Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) • Surface analysis

19. Model: Physical aspects • Cloud microphysics • Convection scheme revisions • Stable boundary layer – roughness lengths • Radiation and aerosols

20. Focus on improved cloud parametrization: • Super-cooled liquid layers in mixed phase stratiform cloud (37r3) • Ice water content in cirrus (38r1) • Reduction of drizzle occurrence ice liquid cirrus anvil cirrus frontal mid-level cloud deep convection shallow Cu SLW stratus stratocumulus Freezing level

21. Diagnostics • Forecast busts • Severe weather • EDA, ENS and model error

22. Forecast busts over Europe D+6 RMSE > 60m ACC < 0.40

23. Flow anomaly before forecast bust over Europe

24. CAPE anomaly before forecast bust over Europe

25. Model: Numerical aspects • Resolution increases • Horizontal: 16 km in 2010 →10 km in 2015 → ≈5 km in 2020 • Vertical: 91 → 137 levels in 2013 • Fast Legendre transforms • Non-hydrostatic model • Mass conservation

26. Surface winds from Lothar storm 26 Dec 1999(11 hour forecast) T7999 (2.5 km) T1279 (16 km) Gust speed

27. ENsemble prediction System (ENS) • EDA, singular vectors and ENS • Stochastic physics • Monthly forecasting • MJO skill scores • Seasonal forecast System 4 • EUROSIP including NCEP • Applications of ENS • Flooding/drought prediction • Health

28. Performance of the monthly Forecasts since 2002 Hindcasts covering the period 1995-2001 Tropics N. Extratropics Day 12-18 ERA 2011 2002

29. Reanalysis (ERA) • Climate monitoring in near real time • ERA-20th century reanalysis in preparation • Ocean reanalysis

30. ERA-20CM consistency with ERA-Interim

31. Time evolution of ocean heat content

32. Atmospheric composition • Modelling and data assimilation • Monitoring and evaluation • Impact on NWP – aerosols

33. Summary • ECMWF world leader medium range weather forecasting • Variational and ensemble data assimilation • Very high resolution possible • Atmospheric composition • Reanalysis