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Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011

Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011. Agenda. Introduction Macroeconomic and industry overview Company and business overview Relevant stock market prospects Financial analysis Multiple valuation Financial projections DCF valuation Recommendation.

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Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011

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  1. Mu Ran Nan Liang Ya Zuo Yang Han Yuwei Hong December 1, 2011

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Macroeconomic and industry overview • Company and business overview • Relevant stock market prospects • Financial analysis • Multiple valuation • Financial projections • DCF valuation • Recommendation

  3. Introduction • The Cheesecake Factory • Upscale, casual, full-service dining restaurants • Industry • Chain restaurants • Selection reasons • Interests • Operations and management • Financial health • Few analyst coverage

  4. Macroeconomic Overview • Real GDP Source: Capital IQ MacroEconomic 2011 Nov 30

  5. Macroeconomic Overview • Unemployment Rate Source: Capital IQ MacroEconomic 2011 Nov 30

  6. Macroeconomic Overview • Consumer Confidence Index Source: Capital IQ MacroEconomic 2011 Nov 30

  7. Macroeconomic Overview • Consumer spending Data Source: ISIB Consumer Spending Report 2011

  8. Industry Overview • Chain Restaurant • Providing food services to patrons who order and are served while seated (i.e. waiter or waitress service) and pay after eating • Products and services segmentations • Major players Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  9. Major Markets • Age demographics • Income demographics Data Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  10. Key Success Factors

  11. Industry Performance Declining industry’s revenue growth rate in past few years • Industry’s annual revenue Data Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  12. Key External Drivers Expected to increase slowly  potential opportunity for the industry Expected to increase slowly  potential opportunity for the industry Expected to increase slowly  potential opportunity for the industry Expected to increase  threatens operators in the industry Expected to increase  potential threat to the industry Data Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011, ISIB Consumer sentiment index report, ISIB consumer spending report, ISIB households over $100,000 report, ISIB healthy eating index report

  13. Industry Structure • Barriers to Entry: Low • Competition Level: High • Concentration Level: Low • Life Cycle Stage: Mature • Revenue Volatility: Low • Capital Intensity: Medium • Industry Assistance: Low • Regulation Level: Medium • Technology Change: Medium • Industry Globalization: Low

  14. Industry Trend • Restaurants will offer new and healthy foods to survive in a competitive market • The domestic market is increasingly becoming saturated. Therefore, some major operators are continuing to invest internationally through franchises • Restaurants will continue to invest in technology, including electronic customer ordering, labor scheduling and electronic product ordering systems

  15. US Bread Production Industry • Manufactures bread and bakery products, such as cakes, muffins, pastries, pies and other similar baked goods. Data Source: ISIB Bread Production in the US Industry Report 2011

  16. Company OverviewEvolution Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  17. Company OverviewBrief Description The sale in 2010 is $1,659,404

  18. Company OverviewBrands Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  19. Company Overview Competitive Advantage Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  20. Company OverviewFuture Expansion Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  21. Company OverviewFuture Expansion Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  22. Company Overview Risk Factors Analysis Data Source: Annual Report Fiscal 2011

  23. Stock OverviewHistory Price Data Source: Capital IQ

  24. Stock Overview 8 competitors Data Source: Capital IQ

  25. Stock OverviewRelevant Policy • No dividends • Past • future • Stock Repurchase • 2008: 2.1 million • 2010: 9.6 million • 2011-2012 • Stock Options • Employees Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  26. Financial Analysis Revenues Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  27. Financial Analysis Ratios Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  28. DuPont Analysis Data Source: Annual Report fiscal 2011

  29. Comparable • Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) • Market share: 14.3% • Industry Brand Names: Red Lobster, Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, The Capital Grille, Bahama Breeze and Seasons 52 • 1,800 restaurants • Brinker International Inc. (NYSE:EAT) • Market share: 4.4% • Industry Brand Names: Chili’s Grill & Bar, On the Border Mexican Grill & Cantina and Maggiano’s Little Italy • 1,550 restaurants Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  30. Comparable • DineEquity, Inc. (NYSE:DIN) • Market share: 1.9% • Industry Brand Names: Applebee’s Bar & Grill and IHOP • 2,000 Applebee’s restaurants • 1,500 IHOP restaurants • P.F. Chang's China Bistro, Inc. (NasdaqGS:PFCB) • Industry Brand Names: P.F. Chang's China Bistro and Pei Wei Asian Diner. • 201 full service Bistro restaurants • 168 quick casual Pei Wei restaurants Source: ISIB Chain Restaurants in the US Industry Report 2011

  31. Comparable Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (Nasdaq: BWLD) 800 restaurants Ruby Tuesday Inc. (NYSE: RT) 746 restaurants Panera Bread Co. (Nasdaq: PNRA) 1,467 bakery-cafes Texas Roadhouse Inc. (Nasdaq: TXRH) 350 restaurants Data Source: Capital IQ

  32. Public Comps Analysis Data Source: Capital IQ

  33. Public Comps Analysis Data Source: Capital IQ

  34. Recommendation WACC=12.45%

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