How might the changing labour market transform higher education?CERI expert meeting, Paris, 12-13 February 2007 Labour market changes: trends and prospects Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin Analyst OECD/CERI Centre for Educational Research and Innovation
Outline • Changes and diversity in the structure of OECD economies and labour markets • Drivers of change for discussion • Ageing • Technology • Globalisation
Enterprises with less than 20 employees:employment and value addedAs a percentage of total employment or value added in manufacturing, 2002
Standardised unemployment rates: average 1995-2004As a percentage of civilian labour force
Long-term unemploymentPersons unemployed for 12 months or more as a percentage of total unemployed, 2004
Diversity within and across economies • Institutions matter • Employment systems • Recruitment practices • Autonomy within a job • Role of formal qualifications • Training, recognition of former experience, portability of skills • Importance of innovation (R&D) • Depends on product, business strategy etc.
Some drivers of change Ageing Technology Globalisation
Some consequences of ageing • Further changes in the structure of the economy • Possible shortages in some sectors • Teachers, health sectors, scientists, etc.? • Migration? • New work patterns for older workers? For women? • Changes in consumption behaviours
Technology • Further development of IT and other technologies • Automation of an increasing number of tasks: end of work? • New synergies: more demand for highly skilled workforce? • Greater variety of consumer demands and products & shorter product life cycles • Personalisation of products and consumption • Low productivity growth puzzle: inadequate measures of productivity or new model of production (imagination vs automation)? • Driver of globalisation
Globalisation • Positive impact on economies overall, but loss of jobs and market shares in some sectors • Further reach of outsourcing: will highly qualified jobs be threatened too? • Change in the structure of OECD economies? • Impact on unemployment, on wage distribution, on skill level of available occupations • Lifelong learning becomes more crucial • Role of Multi-National Entreprises • Financial capitalism and new business model/employment relationship
Questions • Will new business models become prevalent in higher education too? • What kind of skills will the (tertiary educated) worker of the future need in order to thrive in the workplace and the labour market? • Will the economy (really) need more tertiary educated people? What will happen to those with less formal education?
Thank you Stephan.Vincent-Lancrin@oecd.org
Over-qualification rates in some OECD countries, 2003-2004 Sources: European countries: European Community Labour Force Survey (data provided by Eurostat); United States: Current Population Survey March Supplement; Canada: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics; Australia: Household, Income and Labour Dynamics.