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Schedule. April 20: Future Climatic Change, Conclusions and Perspectives April 23: Wrap-up April 27: Final 1-3:50 pm. The Climate Future. Trends. The world has about 6.77 billion people right now…. Estimates of the number of people who ever lived range 45-125 billion

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Schedule

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  1. Schedule • April 20: Future Climatic Change, Conclusions and Perspectives • April 23: Wrap-up • April 27: Final 1-3:50 pm

  2. The Climate Future

  3. Trends • The world has about 6.77 billion people right now…. • Estimates of the number of people who ever lived range 45-125 billion • When I was born there were less than 3 billion people…..

  4. 47160 billion in 2011

  5. Will we run out….oil? • The world consumes about 32 billion barrels of oil year. • World proven oil reserves are about 1300 bbl • BUT! • Reserves depend on PRICE and technology! • With a higher price worldreserves are much larger….

  6. Take the Kern Field for example • It started production with the expectation of recovering 70 million barrels (mbbl). • By 1942 they had recovered 280 mbbl with another 60 to go. • By 2007 they had recovered 2000 mbbl with another 480 to go…..! • How much oil is there REALLY?

  7. Will we run out….oil? • NE Greenland ~ 110 billion barrels • Offshore Cuba ~ 20 billion barrels • Russian Arctic ~ 90 billion barrels • Canadian Arctic… bad tectonics • Canadian Tar Sands ~ 1700 billion barrels • Orinoco Oil Sands ~ 1800 billion barrels

  8. Will we run out…coal? • Annual use is about 7 billion tons • There are over 900 billon tons of proven reserves

  9. Greenhouse Trends • Methane accounts for about 16% of the total greenhouse-gas effect. • But……Methane growth has peaked • However, there is a problem with permafrost and methane clathrates in the oceans. • In the future CO2 will dominate greenhouse gasses

  10. Greenhouse Trends • With increases in CO2 we get substantial warming. • Warming of the oceans • Reduce the solubility of CO2 in the oceans • Allow methane clathrates to melt releasing more methane • Warming of the polar regions • Methane and CO2 released from permafrost regions.

  11. 2 x CO2 world • The good news is that the pulse of CO2 is too fast for the climate system to come to equilibrium • Slow responding parts like the major ice sheets would not be able to melt fast enough • Fast responding parts (permafrost, shallow ocean, seasons) will change a lot.

  12. 2 x CO2 world • 560 PPM CO2….About 2C warmer than now. Like the world 10 million years ago • Reduced arctic sea ice • Few mountain glaciers • Forests moving north • More water vapor and clouds • Stronger monsoons??? Greener North Africa? • More acid ocean • Somewhere between 30-200 cm sea level rise this century…..maybe more.

  13. 4 x CO2 world • 1100 PPM CO2….About 5-7C warmer than now. Like the world 50 million years ago • No arctic sea ice • No mountain glaciers • Unstable Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets • Forests on the shores of the Arctic Ocean • More water vapor and clouds • Stronger monsoons??? Greener North Africa? • More acid ocean • Somewhere between 1-2 meter sea level rise this century…..maybe more.

  14. Greenhouse Gas Production

  15. The Bottom Line Do you like Sea Level where it is?

  16. 1 Meter Sea Level Rise

  17. 2 Meters Sea Level Rise

  18. 3 Meters Sea Level Rise

  19. 4 Meters Sea Level Rise

  20. 5 Meters Sea Level Rise

  21. Can we have a different Future? • Can we limit the input of fossil carbon? • What will be the methane effect of thawing permafrost? • What will be the methane effect of thawing clathrates?

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