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The Challenges of Promoting Safety

The Challenges of Promoting Safety. Dr. Todd Curtis The AirSafe.com Foundation NASA - Ellington Field 24 March 2004 Slides and other materials at airsafe.com/nasatalk.htm. 1. Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004. Agenda. Some General Realities about Safety

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The Challenges of Promoting Safety

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  1. The Challenges of Promoting Safety Dr. Todd Curtis The AirSafe.com Foundation NASA - Ellington Field 24 March 2004 Slides and other materials at airsafe.com/nasatalk.htm • 1 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  2. Agenda • Some General Realities about Safety • Marketing and Selling Safety • How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question • Marketing and Selling Safety • The Sociology of Safety • The Key Role of the Human Element • Safety and Innovation: The Challenges Remain • Are You Better Than Average?TM • 2 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  3. Some General Realities about Safety • Safety Touches on Many Areas • What is Important is Not Always Obvious • Perception of Risk is Often the Key • Improvement Takes More Than Technology • No One Can Do It Alone • The Individual is Still Important • Never Underestimate the Human Element • 3 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  4. Key Concepts • Safety: A Constantly Changing Concept • Risk: Probability and Consequences • The Power of Storytelling • The Power of Public Perception • The Interactions of People and Technology • Safety Failures are System Failures • 4 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  5. Safety is More Than Numbers • Definitions are Very Flexible • The Level of Concern Can Vary Widely • Hard to Agree on an Acceptable Level • Common Measurements May Not Exist • Issues can be Subjective or Objective • How to Frame the Debate is an Issue • Cost per Life and Cost per Life Saved • Accomplishing the Mission and Protecting Lives • 5 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  6. The Marketing and Selling of SafetyWhy is it So Difficult? • Safety Comes at a Continuing Cost • Costs are Measurable, Benefits are Not • Costs and Benefits Happen to Different Groups • Desire to Maximize the “Bottom Line” • Building Codes and Bird Hazard Reduction • 6 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  7. How to Ask an Aviation Safety Question • Understanding the Question is the Foundation • Specifying the Question is Necessary • Need to Know and Understand the Audience • Managing the Process is a Key to Success • Presenting the Answer is Part of the Process • Example: Airliner Deaths of the U.S. Congress • 7 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  8. How to Ask an Aviation Safety QuestionKey Phases of the Process • Goals and Objectives • Identifying and Evaluating Data • Identifying Appropriate Analysis Methods • Resource Management • Task Management • Presentation Design • Administration • 8 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  9. Marketing and Selling SafetyThe Birth of BirdStrike.org • Bird Strike Community Spread Around the World • Communications Limited • Elmendorf AWACS Accident Key Turning Point • Recognized Need for Controlling the Debate • Pitched the Idea to the Key Stakeholders • Prototype Site within AirSafe.com • 9 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  10. Marketing SafetyAirSafe.com Design and Development Criteria • Markets: Journalists, Passengers, Aviation professionals • Target Audience Was Worldwide • Initial Focus on Passenger Deaths in Jet Transports • Limit Information to Publicly Accessible Sources • Overall Design Optimized for Fast Loading • “Three Click Rule” for Most Information • 10 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  11. Marketing SafetyKey Realities of AirSafe.com • Lack of Resources Led to Better Planning • Technology Takes a Back Seat to Content • Balance Between Perceived and Actual Needs • Internet Technology Plays a Central Role • 11 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  12. The Sociology of Safety • Aviation Safety Is a Community • Individuals Have Limited Power • Change is Usually Evolutionary • Dramatic Events Can Drive Technology • Dramatic Events Can Change the Debate • Safety Policy Exists in a Social Context • Storytelling is a Key Agent of Change • The Unwritten Code of Silence • 12 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  13. The Key Role of the Human Element • Human Actions, Decisions, and Judgment in All Phases of the Safety Process • Role of Interaction of People and Technology is Getting More Complex • Improving the Human Element is Not Easy • Examples: Cockpit Resource Management, Operational Risk Assessment • 13 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  14. The Key Role of the Human ElementExample: Why are Some Accidents More Well Known? • Public Policy Follows Public Interest • Several Key Factors in Public Interest • “Body Bags with American Flags” • The New York Connection • Public Interest Tied to High-Interest Events • 14 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  15. The Key Role of the Human ElementExample: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events • 15 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  16. The Key Role of the Human ElementExample: AirSafe.com Traffic After Key Events Alaska Airlines Concorde 9/11 American 587 • 16 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  17. The Key Role of the Human ElementExample: Operational Risk Assessment • Basics are Widely Taught • Can be Used at all Levels • Issues can be of any Scale • Works Best if All Relevant Parts of the Organization are Involved • Assessment and Management Methods Allow for Effective Management • Used Along With Other Methods • 17 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  18. The Key Role of the Human ElementExample: Cockpit Resource Management • Recognition Came About Through Tragedy • Necessary to Bring Change to the Entire Community • Getting Consensus was a Long-Term Project • Necessary to change basic traditions • Widely Recognized but Not Universally Practiced • 18 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  19. Safety and InnovationThe Challenges Remain • Higher Levels of Automation • Unmanned and Autonomous Aircraft • Unpredictable Requirements Evolution • Sudden Appearance of New Threats • Flight in Relatively Unknown Regimes • Changing of Long-Held Assumptions • 19 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  20. Safety and InnovationWhat September 11 Revealed • A Failure of Imagination • Unwillingness to Debate Technical Issues • The Separation of Safety and Security • Catalyst for Rapid Change • Relative Silence of the Technical Experts • Extreme Social and Political Pressures • 20 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  21. Accident InvestigationA Once in a Lifetime Experience • Most Will Never Have Direct Experience • On Site Investigation Has Many Players • Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals • Each Investigation has Unique Challenges • Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences • Process Can be Psychologically Challenging • 21 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  22. Accident InvestigationExample: AWACS at Elmendorf • Most Will Never Have Direct Experience • On Site Investigation Has Many Players • Most Personnel are not Safety Professionals • Each Investigation has Unique Challenges • Civil and Military Arenas Have Key Differences • Examples of Psychological Challenges • 22 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  23. Are You Better Than Average?The Emotional Side of Probability • A game that illustrates the relationship between logic, emotion, and probability • It also illustrates the likelihood of an unwanted event over a population of rare events • Field tested from kindergarteners to PhDs • One way to put risk into an easy to understand example • 23 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  24. Are You Better Than Average?The Rules of the Game • There is one chance in three of a double or a seven • On average, it takes three rolls for a double or a seven • Get a double or seven on the first roll, you are better than average, if not, roll again • Get a double or seven on the second roll, you are still better than average, if not you are no better than average • If your emotions are bruised, keep playing the game until you “win” • 24 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  25. Are You Better Than Average?Possible Outcomes Win on first roll, P(1/3) Double or Seven Win on second roll, P(2/9) Double or Seven No Double, no Seven Lose on second roll, P(4/9) No Double, no Seven • 25 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  26. Are You Better Than Average?Expected Distribution of Results • 26 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  27. Are You Better Than Average?Relevance to Flight • Operational scenarios may look like an outcome to a game • WWII example – surviving 25 missions • A 1% likelihood of a shootdown implies about a 78% chance of making 25 missions (1st or 3rd outcome) • A 2.4% likelihood of a shootdown implies about a 55% 25 chance of making 25 missions (1st or 2nd outcome) • Acceptable losses for the fleet depends on the nature of the mission and the acceptance of the risk • 27 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  28. B-17: Make it Home AliveThe Rules of the Game • Same basic rules as “Are You Better Than Average?” • Two versions: 1% Risk or 2.4% Risk • For 1% risk, 1st or 3rd outcome is a “win” • For 2.4% risk, 1st or 2nd outcome is a “win” • Unlike “Are You Better Than Average?,” each player only has one opportunity • On a B-17 crew, there is no second opportunity • 28 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  29. B-17: Make it Home AlivePossible Outcomes for the 1% Game Finish 25 missions, P(1/3) Double or Seven Do not finish 25 missions, P(2/9) Double or Seven No Double, no Seven Finish 25 missions, P(4/9) No Double, no Seven • 29 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

  30. B-17: Make it Home AlivePossible Outcomes for the 2.4% Game Finish 25 missions, P(1/3) Double or Seven Finish 25 missions, P(2/9) Double or Seven No Double, no Seven Do Not Finish 25 missions, P(4/9) No Double, no Seven • 30 Dr. Todd Curtis, The AirSafe.com Foundation, 24 March 2004

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