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WGNE intercomparison of Tropical Cyclone Track forecast, 2009. 26th session of CAS/JSC WGNE, 18-22 Oct. 2010, Tokyo , Japan. Prepared by Daisuke Hotta and Akira Shimokobe (NPD/JMA). History of the Project.

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wgne intercomparison of tropical cyclone track forecast 2009

WGNE intercomparison ofTropical Cyclone Track forecast, 2009

26th session of CAS/JSC WGNE,

18-22 Oct. 2010,

Tokyo , Japan

Prepared by

Daisuke Hotta and

Akira Shimokobe (NPD/JMA)

history of the project
History of the Project
  • 1991 : commencement with three centers: ECMWF, UKMO and JMA. The verification area was only western North Pacific.
  • 1994 : CMC joined.
  • 1999 : Verification for the North Atlantic started.
  • 2000 : DWD joined. Verification for the eastern North Pacific started.
  • 2002 : Verification for 2 Southern Hemispheric regions, north Indian Ocean and the Central Pacific started.
  • 2003 : NCEP and BoM joined. A website for this intercomparison project was launched.
  • 2004 : Meteo-France and CMA joined.
  • 2006 : CPTEC and NRL joined.

2010 : 9 NWP centers participated in the project.

〔BOM CMC DWD ECMWF JMA France NCEP NRL UKMO 〕

slide3

Specification of Data

* except for South Pacific and north Indian-Ocean

slide4

TC Verification

TC tracks on 2009 season

Northern-Hemisphere [2009/01/01 to 2009/12/31]

Southern-Hemisphere [2008/09/01 to 2009/08/31]

Number of TCs , [best-track data provider]

22 western North-Pacific [RSMC Tokyo]

21 eastern North-Pacific (including Central-Pacific) [RSMC Miami, Honolulu]

9 North Atlantic [RSMC Miami]

4 north Indian-Ocean [RSMC New-Delhi]

10 south Indian-Ocean [RSMC La-Reunion]

15 around Australia [RSMC Nadi and 4 TCWCs ]

9

21

4

22

10

15

slide5

Method of TC verification using MSLP

TCs to be verified

TCs which intensity reached tropical storm (TS) with the maximum sustained wind of 34 knots or stronger are set as targets for this verification. The tropical depression (TD) stage of the targeted TCs is also included in this verification. However, the TCs which stayed at TD level all through their life are excluded. 

1. Tracking Method

local pressure minimum;

a) First position (FT +0hr) : search from the best track position

b) Second position (FT +12hr) : search from the first position

c) Third and after (FT +24hr~) : search from estimated position

from the latest two positions

(all position searched within 500km radius)

slide6

Verification Method

  • ・Position Error 〔km〕
  • The distance between
  • the best-track (analyzed) position
  • and the forecast position.
  • ・Along Track – Cross Track bias
  • AT(along-track)-bias : The bias in the direction
  • of TC movement
  • CT(cross-track)-bias : The bias in the rectangular
  • direction of TC movement
  • ・Detection Rate 〔%〕
  • Detection Rate (t) = A(t)/ B(t)
  • A(t) : The number of forecast events in which a TC is analyzed at forecast time t on the
  • condition that a NWP model continuously expresses the TC until the forecast time t. B(t) : The number of forecast events in which a TC is analyzed at forecast time t.
slide8

(a) WNP domain Detection Rate

DetectionRate – PositionError map (FT +72)

better

slide12

(b) NAT domain Detection Rate

DetectionRate – PositionError map (FT +72)

better

slide13

(c) eastern North-Pacific (ENP) domain Position Error

21 TCs in 2009

Including Central-Pacific

slide14

(c) ENP domain Detection Rate

DetectionRate – PositionError map (FT +72)

better

slide16

(d) AUR domain Detection Rate

DetectionRate – PositionError map (FT +72)

better

slide18

(e) SIO domain Detection Rate

DetectionRate – PositionError map (FT +72)

better

slide19

visualization with “pie-chart”

DWD

BoM

CMC

ECMWF

MeteoFrance

JMA

NCEP

NRL

UKMO

slide20

transition of FT+72 position error over decade(s)

Eastern

North Pacific

Western

North Pacific

North Atlantic

Southern

Indian Ocean

around

Australia

slide21

TC intercomparison website now available !

<http://nwp-verif.kishou.go.jp/wgne_tc/index.html>

Login ID: verif

Password: wgne2010 (beyond 18 Oct. 2010)

Contact:

proposal
Proposal
  • Verification of regional model isanother important issue for operational center.
  • Configuration (forecast domain, period etc.) are completely different among centers.
  • JMA will provide software to detect TCs in model and observed TC track data.
  • Each center verify of your regional model by yourself.
  • JMA will add the results on the TC-verif web site.
  • (No changes for global model TC verification.)