Local, Regional, Global Pollution

2. Local, Regional, Global Pollution Before 1950s: Local Smoke, Fly ash Post- 2000s: Global, HTAP Ozone, PM,Global Change 1970s-1990s: Regional, LRTP Acid Rain, Haze • The LRTP/HTAP flow of air pollutants is likely to increase as overseas economies grow. • Pollutant influx leads to significant exceedances of O3 PM NAAQS in some regions • Even after domestic controls, some US areas will be no-compliant because of LRTP

3. Aircraft Detection of Siberian Forrest Smoke near Seattle, WA Jaffe et. al., 2003

4. Asian Dust Cloud over N. America Asian Dust 100 mg/m3 Hourly PM10 On April 27, 1998 the dust cloud arrived in North America. Regional average PM10 concentrations increased to 65 mg/m3 In Washington State, PM10 concentrations exceeded 100 mg/m3

5. Origin of Fine Dust Events over the US Gobi dust transport in spring Sahara dust import in summer Sulfate is local, no major spikes Fine dust spikes over the entire US are mainly from intercontinental transport

6. National Ambient Air Monitoring Strategy Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Research Triangle Park, NC December 2005 CENR/AQRS Barrow L1 Trinidad Head GAW L2 NCORE L3 Mauna Loa A. Samoa S. Pole http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ http://www.fz-juelich.de/icg/icg-ii/mozaic/home http://www.fz-juelich.de/icg/icg-ii/iagos/ GEOSS http://www.epa.gov/ttn/amtic/monstratdoc.html http://earthobservations.org/ EMEP http://www.al.noaa.gov/AQRS/ reports/monitoring.html http://www.empa.ch/gaw/gawsis/ http://www.emep.int/ NOAA CMDL NOAA NESDIS http://www.igospartners.org/ http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/

7. Coordinating Earth Observing Systems Capabilities Vantage Points L1/HEO/GEO TDRSS & Commercial Satellites Far-Space Permanent LEO/MEO Commercial Satellites and Manned Spacecraft Near-Space Aircraft/Balloon Event Tracking and Campaigns Airborne Deployable Terrestrial User Community Forecasts & Predictions

8. ` Air Quality/Public Health NTO Integrated Observed-Modeled Air Quality Fields GEOS-12 AQUA MODIS TERRA MODIS CONUS every 30 minutes ~1:30 local overpass ~10:30 local overpass Products Products Aerosol Optical Depth (MOD04_L2) Aerosol Optical Depth (GASP) NOAA NESDIS/ORA & CREST Institutes NOAA NESDIS NASA GFSC DACC NASA GFSC Science Team Products Products Algorithms/QA Algorithms/QA US EPA OAQPS/ORD/OEI RSI Gateway ? UMBC CREST Institute US EPA AQS Products Products Spatial surface Predictions Satellite/Model/Surface Data Fusion HHS CDC-EPHTN REALM SLAMS/NAMS SURACE PM2.5 Data Continuous Vertical Resolution Data EPA OAR & ORD NOAA NWS State & Local *Note: Regional East Atmospheric Lidar Mesonet (REALM) is university led federated network by UMBC and is identified as a NTO in the implementation plan. Canadian Providences State Public Health Departments Products Products Products CMAQ Assessment Data Studies and Impacts to human health CMAQ Forecast Data

9. Sustainable Development in an ever-changing world:Sensory-Motor Loop: Sensing and recognition (monitoring) Reasoning and explaining (sciences) Challenge 21: Science – Management Link Decision making, action (management)

10. Collaboration (culture) empire building? Observation technologies {e.g., satellites} Computational power Science, talent {embodied in AQ models and young geniuses} Accountability, ↓ regulatory assessments {e.g., NAS, CASAC} Information technologies {e.g., data sharing protocols} Alignment Budgets, agency collaboration resource/program accountability Stars aligned?

11. NPS Protect ecosystems, AQ WQ NASA Explore fundamental Earth System Properties USDA Protect/optimize Ag and forest resources EPA (Protect human health and environment) Improve air, water, ecosystem health CDC To promote health and quality of life by preventing and controlling disease, injury, and disability. NOAA To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social and environmental needs” Example User Client Missions Apparent divergences?

12. Or substantial convergence and optimization potential? Client Data Overlaps Common data

13. Summary • Global Sensing – Modeling Revolution – ‘May you live in interesting times’ • We are in the midst of an observational revolution (satellites, monitoring networks). • The global distribution and transport of some pollutants can be monitored daily • Global models are maturing into effective analytical and predictive tools • Results to Date: • Compelling evidence for global-scale transport of PM and Ozone • Qualitative evidence of ‘extra-jurisdictional’ impact on the US air quality • Potential for quantification of natural and non-US impact • Such massive job will require: • International, interagency, interdisciplinary collaboration. • Open flow of data/knowledge • Scientific ‘value-adding chains’

14. FUTURE

15. For instance, • Health • effects/outcomes associations (PHASE) • Public health warnings/forecasting • Air program support • defining attainment/nonattainment areas (and projection, current practice) • developing emission strategies • accountability • Environmental • Ecosystem deposition assessments/support • AQ trends in National Parks • Regional haze assessments • Atmospheric science • Diagnosing emissions and models Benefit from Air quality characterizations And benefit even more from rich (t,s,c) AQ characterizations

16. Building an integrated observation-modeling complex: an air program perspective • Health • effects/outcomes associations (PHASE) • Public health warnings/forecasting • Air program support • defining attainment/nonattainment areas (and projection, current practice) • developing emission strategies • accountability • Environmental • Ecosystem deposition assessments/support • AQ trends in National Parks • Regional haze assessments • Atmospheric science • Diagnosing emissions and models Benefit from Air quality characterizations And benefit even more from rich (t,s,c) AQ characterizations Note: IGACO; AQ, ox eff., strat-O3, climate

17. Consequently • A simple overarching goal or vision, • Strive for maximum and efficient AQ characterization in time, space and compositional terms • the intersecting or common link between air programs and satellite data and integrated advanced systems

18. Total column depth (through Satellites) AQ model results Vertical Profiles Land AQ Monitors Integrated Observation- Modeling TGAS/Aerosol Satellite Measurements and Numerical Predictive Models • Assimilation of data to improve • air quality models for forecast • Current and • Retrospective assessments • Global-Regional Air Quality Connections • Climate-AQ connections Optimized PM2.5, O3 Characterizations Health ecosystems Air management

19. Process Scales relevant to Air Quality vs. Space Observations Long Range Transport Pollution Dynamics Global Composition/Climate Regional Transport Intercontinental Transport Regional Haze/Subsidence Strat/Trop Exchange RAQMS 330K NOy 18Z July 17, 2004 Residual layer/Nocturnal Jet 12Z Convective exchange/rainout Urban Canyon 18Z

20. Stars aligned? Observation technologies {e.g., satellites} Collaboration (culture) empire building? Computational power Science, talent {embodied in AQ models and young geniuses} Alignment Budgets, agency collaboration resource/program accountability Information technologies {e.g., data sharing protocols} Accountability, ↓ regulatory assessments {e.g., NAS, CASAC}