U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

1. ShakeOut Scenario EarthquakeM 7.8 - Southern San Andreas FaultKenneth W. HudnutUSGS - Pasadena, CALos Angeles Dept. of Water & Power - HeadquartersLos Angeles, California3 June 2008 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

2. November 13, 2008 at 10:00 a.m.www.ShakeOut.org May 22: Testimony by D. Applegate - released OFR & Circular on ShakeOut June 4: ShakeOut Kick-Off event at Caltech

3. Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist Dale Cox, Project Manager Suzanne Perry, Staff Scientist Earthquake Scenario Coordinators: Dan Ponti, Anne Wein, Rich Bernknopf, and Ken Hudnut (all at USGS), Mike Reichle and Jerry Treiman (CGS), Keith Porter and Dennis Mileti (Univ. of Colorado), Jim Goltz (OES), Hope Seligson (MMI Eng.), and Kim Shoaf (UCLA) ShakeOut Earthquake Contributors - Source Description, Surface Faulting and Ground Motions: Brad Aagaard and Ned Field (USGS), Rob Graves* (URS), Lisa Star and Jonathan Stewart (UCLA), Thomas Jordan,* Gideon Juve,* Philip Maechling,* David Okaya,* Scott Callaghan* (USC), Jacobo Bielak,* Ricardo Taborda,* Leonardo Ramirez-Guzman,* Julio Lopez,* and David O'Hallaron* (CMU) and John Urbanic* (PSC), Geoff Ely* (SDSU/UCSD), Kim Olsen,* Luis Dalguer* and Steve Day* (SDSU), Yifeng Cui,* Jing Zhu,* Timothy Kaiser,* Amit Chourasia,* and Reagan Moore* (SDSC), Chen Ji (UCSB), Swami Krishnan, Matt Muto and Jeroen Tromp (Caltech) * participant in the SCEC/CME collaboration, funded by the National Science Foundation USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project

4. For one specific natural hazard event: Projected activity Economic Activity ‘Disaster’ (a few yrs.) event ‘Catastrophe’ (decades) Time

5. A San Andreas “Big One” isfar bigger than Northridge 1994What is meant by “Big One” exactly…?- fault length is 300 km (15 x)- rupture duration is 90 sec (10 x)- shaking duration is 180 sec (15 x)M 7.8 “great” >> M 6.7amplitude (15 x) & energy (~30 x)

6. Not a prediction - a plausible event First step: define the rupture length ? ? ShakeOut Scenario Earthquake ShakeOut 1857 NR'94 1812 1680

7. Mw7.8 ‘ShakeOut’ Scenario (GG’08 Nov. 13, 2008) • San Andreas ‘Big One’ simulated earthquake; multi-hazard scenario • Initiation near Bombay Beach and rupture to the NW • Disruption of critical lifeline infrastructure (freeway, internet, power and gas lines) along surface rupture • Strong shaking throughout the region, including urban areas Surface Slip and Modified Mercalli Intensities for ShakeOut scenario earthquake. Credits: Rob Graves (SCEC-CME; URS / USC) Brad Aagaard (USGS); ShakeMap Integration thanks to Vince Quitoriano (USGS), Wan Lin (USGS), Keith Porter (Univ. of Colorado) and David Wald (USGS)

8. Critical lifeline infrastructure fault crossings - transportation I-5 is OK; I-15 and I-10 badly damaged & require repairs I-10 I-5 I-15 I-10 STOP STOP Rt. 62 Rt. 14 GO Lifelines: white is power, yellow is gas and fuel, light blue is fiber optic, black is rail, orange is freeway and highway system

9. Water line crossings

10. Elizabeth Lake Tunnel (LADWP) - Real-Time Monitoring? NW end W = 9.5’ Slip: 3.5 m = 11.5’

11. Northridge 1994 over in 30 sec’s ShakeOut rupture unzips SE to NW, taking 90 seconds; Shaking lasts >3 min.’s in LA & Ventura

12. Onset and Duration of Shaking

13. Approx. 1,600 ignitions occur requiring response of a fire engine In approx. 1,200 of these, first-respond- ing engine will not be able to contain - these become large fires Conflagration of central Los Angeles basin - dozens of fires, each tens of city blocks, merge into several “super-conflagrations” destroying hundreds of city blocks Firefighting will place heavy demands on water systems Fire roughly doubles the earthquake direct losses Fire attributable to ~one thousand lives lost Economic loss including business disruption ~$100 B Urban Fires Northridge, 1994

14. 30 dams near fault experience damage serious enough to cause safety concerns 3 dams are nearly full and require emergency discharge and possible downstream evacuation (dams do not rupture) California Aqueduct broken in two places near Palmdale, Los Angeles Aqueduct (Elizabeth Lake Tunnel) severely damaged near Palmdale, Colorado River Aqueduct broken near Whitewater, and Coachella Canal in three places near Indio Dams, Reservoirs & Aqueducts

15. Water supply is adequate for 6 mo. (assuming 25% reduced demand) Damage to water delivery pipes, which also contributes to potential for conflagration Note: “fire-flow” water pressure issues for recent Universal fire Immediate loss of all commercial electrical power in Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino; rapid repairs restore 50% in 24 hrs., 90% in 3 days, and all service restored within 2 to 4 weeks (but repairs may take 2 yrs. to restore the system) Sewer pipeline damage Water and Power

16. Drinking Water: 1 gal. per person, per day x 14 days Family of 5: 70 gallons Need plenty at work, in the car and at home Can LADWP help us deliver this message? ~14 days

17. Conclusions: Getting prepared for the ShakeOut earthquake will help southern Californians withstand actual earthquakes of comparable size If we take no additional actions for preparedness and mitigation, and a ShakeOut-like earthquake does occur, it may cause… - approximately 2,000 deaths - more than 50,000 injuries - over $200 billion in damage - and severe, long-lasting social and economic disruption … to southern California. These numbers climb with each damaging aftershock... (e.g., M 7.2 on Cucamonga fault)

18. www.ShakeOut.orgKenneth W. Hudnut, Ph.D. Geophysicist, USGS 525 S. Wilson Ave. Pasadena, CA 91106 hudnut@usgs.gov (626)583-7232