discussion topics n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
DISCUSSION TOPICS PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
DISCUSSION TOPICS

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 82

DISCUSSION TOPICS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 126 Views
  • Uploaded on

DISCUSSION TOPICS. Updates on Financial and Economic Conditions Currency Stability Banking Stability Financial Infrastructure Hong Kong as an International Financial Centre The Exchange Fund. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES. Real GDP Growth.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

DISCUSSION TOPICS


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    Presentation Transcript
    1. DISCUSSION TOPICS Updates on • Financial and Economic Conditions • Currency Stability • Banking Stability • Financial Infrastructure • Hong Kong as an International Financial Centre • The Exchange Fund

    2. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

    3. ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES Real GDP Growth Source: Bloomberg

    4. ECONOMIC SITUATION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES Purchasing Manager Index Retail Sales Source: Bloomberg and CEIC

    5. GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS Real GDP Growth (% year-on-year) Source: Consensus Forecasts

    6. US EQUITY INDEX Source: CEIC

    7. US LONGER-TERM INTEREST RATES Source: CEIC

    8. US: CONSUMPTION GROWTH & BUSINESS ACTIVITY Source: CEIC

    9. US: CORPORATE PROFITS Source: CEIC

    10. US: WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS Source: CEIC

    11. US: NEW FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE • The new US$858 billion fiscal stimulus package passed by the Congress in December 2010: • Temporary extension of tax relief, including all Bush-era tax cuts ($668 billion) • A 2%, one-year cut in Social Security payroll tax from 6.2% to 4.2% ($112 billion) • Temporary extension of emergency unemployment benefits ($57 billion) • Temporary extension of investment incentives ($22 billion)

    12. US: COMPARISON OF CURRENT ECONOMIC RECOVERY WITH PAST CYCLES * Excluding the 1980 recession due to double-dip Source: CEIC

    13. US: COMPARISON OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATES WITH PAST CYCLES * Excluding the 1980 recession due to double-dip Source: CEIC

    14. US: STRUCTURAL MISMATCH IN THE LABOUR MARKET Note: The Beveridge curve (the black fitted line) is derived frommonthly data between December 2000 and December 2009. Source: CEIC

    15. US: HOUSE PRICES AND SUPPLY OF UNSOLD HOMES Source: CEIC

    16. US: FISCAL SITUATION Source: Congressional Budget Office

    17. EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEM: CDS SPREADS Prices of 5-year sovereign CDS Source: Bloomberg

    18. EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEM: PUBLIC DEBT & BORROWING COST * Government debts in 2011 are forecasts; bond yields are the latest available. Source: European Commission (European Economic Forecast, Autumn 2010) and EcoWin.

    19. EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT PROBLEM: ECONOMIC GROWTH Real GDP growth rate Source: Consensus Forecasts, February 2011

    20. JAPAN: AGEING POPULATION IS REDUCING LONG-TERM POTENTIAL OUTPUT Source: CEIC and United Nations

    21. JAPAN : GOVERNMENT AND PRIVATE SPENDING Source: CEIC

    22. ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIA Source: CEIC

    23. ASIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH FORECASTS Real GDP Growth (% year-on-year) Source: CEIC and Consensus Forecasts (Feb 2011)

    24. CURRENCY APPRECIATION AND RESERVES ACCUMULATION IN ASIAN ECONOMIES • The increase in foreign reserves in Hong Kong was partly contributed by the investment income Source: Bloomberg and CEIC

    25. INFLATIONARY PRESSURES IN ASIAN ECONOMIES Annual inflation rate (% year-on-year) Sources: Census and Statistics Department, CEIC and Consensus Forecasts (Feb 2011)

    26. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Change in Real GDP

    27. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Retail Sales and Exports

    28. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Business Outlook

    29. HONG KONG ECONOMIC SITUATION Labour Market Unemployment rate

    30. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: INFLATION Hong Kong and Mainland 2010 inflation and 2011 forecast Source:Consensus Forecast (May and Oct 2010 and Feb 2011)

    31. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: INFLATION Underlying inflation and contributions of its components Underlying inflation: Netting out the effects of all Government's one-off relief measures from headline inflation.

    32. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: INFLATION CCPI rental component and residential property price index

    33. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: EQUITY MARKET Hong Kong and Asia Pacific equity market performance

    34. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: EQUITY MARKET Share of stock-market-related loans to total domestic loans

    35. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Residential property prices and transaction volume

    36. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Changes in property-related loans

    37. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Year-on-year change in outstanding mortgage loans *There is a break in data series at December 2000 due to an increase in the number of surveyed institutions.

    38. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET New mortgage loans made and approved *There is a break in data series at December 2000 due to an increase in the number of surveyed institutions.

    39. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Average loan size and average mortgage period

    40. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Transaction volumes in residential property market

    41. ASSESSMENT OF RISK ON HONG KONG’S FINANCIAL STABILITY: PROPERTY MARKET Applications under Mortgage Insurance Programme

    42. CURRENCY STABILITY

    43. HONG KONG DOLLAR SPOT EXCHANGE RATE

    44. AGGREGATE BALANCE

    45. HONG KONG DOLLAR FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE

    46. DOMESTIC INTEREST RATES

    47. EQUITY FUND-RAISING AND NET INFLOWS

    48. BANKING STABILITY

    49. BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Locally incorporated AIs continued to be well capitalised

    50. BANKING SECTOR PERFORMANCE Liquidity ratio of retail banks remained well above statutory minimum of 25%