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Civil Service Modeling: Simplifying the Complexities of Civil Service Pay and Employment. Why Model?. Two Dominant Approaches to Civil Service Pay and Employment Reform. Macro-Analysis: The Meat-Axe Approach? 2. Micro-Review: The Bean-Counting Perspective .

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two dominant approaches to civil service pay and employment reform
Two Dominant Approaches to Civil Service Pay and Employment Reform
  • Macro-Analysis: The Meat-Axe Approach?

2. Micro-Review: The Bean-Counting Perspective

macro analysis to determine appropriate size and cost of civil service
Macro-Analysis to determine appropriate size and cost of civil service
  • How it works
    • Gross criteria to gauge nature and extent of reform needed
    • (Wage bill/GDP; government employment per capita; salary compression ratios, public-private wage relativities)
  • Pros and Cons
    • Broad-brush reform guidance but over-simplified basis for government policy and lending terms and conditions
micro reviews functional analysis to determine staffing and incentive levels
Micro-Reviews (Functional Analysis) to determine staffing and incentive levels
  • How it works
    • Bottom-up scrutiny of individual organizational units’ objectives, tasks, and resource requirements
  • Pros and Cons
    • Accurate picture of on-the-ground reality
    • Inconsistent methodology – wide variability in quality
    • Hard to do – takes forever
    • Difficult to sum up parts: challenge to build coherent civil service strategy for whole based on micro- unit-based details
both approaches left big problems un addressed
Both approaches left big problems un-addressed
  • Low government policymaking capacity for CSR
  • CSR-P&E reality hopelessly complex
    • Competing sectoral considerations
    • New wrinkles: decentralization
    • Conflicting government objectives (social welfare vs. fiscal prudence)
  • Flimsy empirical basis to donor-country dialogue (discussion often on different pages)
what is the cs p e model
What is the CS-P&E Model?

Civil service modeling as middle-range analytic tool to bridge gap in existing approaches

  • Uses country customized data to render the key attributes of current P&E situation
    • Pay and grading arrangements
    • CS employment numbers
    • Sectoral/ministerial geographical particulars
  • Establishes reform objectives and parameters –“Five-year CSR vision”
    • Wage bill envelope
    • Compression ratio and salary levels
    • Public-private relativities
what is the cs p e model8
What is the CS-P&E Model?

Civil service modeling as middle-range analytic tool to bridge gap in existing approaches

  • Simulates reform options – calculating and demonstrating costs of alternative policy measures
    • Assumptions about timing and extent of retrenchment or retirements
    • Implications of different levels of pay raises
    • Altering sectoral employment levels (teachers, health workers)
the joys of the model
The Joys of the Model
  • Provides governments with hands-on tool for plotting realistic reform strategy with concrete targets
  • Sorts out wheat from chaff – focus on big picture
  • Raises level of dialogue with donors (and donor understanding of issues)
  • Helps policy makers combat special pleading of sectoral interests
the woes of the model
The Woes of the Model
  • Cannot (should not) render all detailed characteristics of individual country CS reality (Trade-off between simplicity/clarity and accuracy)
  • Garbage in-Garbage Out (Poor data mean targets may be off)
  • Cannot make hard decisions for policy makers
  • Haven’t dealt with some critical issues (pensions variables hard to incorporate)
  • Cannot replace good establishment management systems (HR database, tight payroll controls, etc.)
  • Cannot provide detailed information for reform implementation (for retrenchment; severance package design, etc. – consultancy needed)
east asia experience
East Asia Experience
  • Pilots in 6 Countries:

Cambodia - Timor Leste - Philippines

Mongolia - Indonesia - Thailand

  • Capacity building grant from ASEM to assist countries in using modeling tools to develop civil service pay and employment reform strategies
  • Development of robust and user friendly modeling tool for region
why model in east asia
Why Model in East Asia?
  • Wake of financial crisis in 1990s led to fiscal constraints, raising profile of wage bill
  • Crisis revealed shortcomings in government effectiveness and efficiency; civil service reform became a priority
  • Modeling reform options could help countries formulate strategy
different countries different entry points
Different Countries, Different Entry Points
  • Cambodia
    • IMF pressure on government to reduce CS wage bill and employment resulted in stalemate
    • Bank entered with model to provide empirical footing to dialogue
  • Thailand
    • Reducing civil service employment part of public sector reform program supported by Bank in aftermath of financial crisis.
    • Support to Office of the Civil Service Commission included modeling reform options
different countries different entry points14
Different Countries, Different Entry Points
  • Philippines
    • Bloated wage bill and surplus CS employment aggravated by fiscal strain during crisis
    • With a history of failed reform efforts, govt. agreed to try modeling to develop strategy
  • Indonesia
    • Civil service seen as corrupt, poor performer when growth rates screeched to a halt in crisis and beyond
    • Decentralization about to transform nature of civil service
    • Modeling intended to provide a starting point for thinking about modernizing CS, but timing was off, given general state of flux
different countries different entry points15
Different Countries, Different Entry Points
  • Timor-Leste
    • New state with no parameters for civil service pay and employment
    • Model intended to work out relativities for new government
  • Mongolia
    • Fund pressure to reduce wage bill
    • Government clueless on where to start – model first step in roadmap to reform
results in eap
Results in EAP
  • Improved, more focused dialogue with country and other donors on CS pay and employment
  • Country counterparts at technical level gained modeling capacity
  • Still limited engagement by higher level decision makers
  • From spreadsheet to GameBoy
    • Marked improvement in modeling mechanics through trial and error evolution
    • User-friendly customized models
    • Whizzy generic model available on website