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Some recent studies using Models-3

Some recent studies using Models-3. Ian Rodgers Ian.Rodgers@innogy.com. Presentation to APRIL meeting London 4 th March 2003. Outline. Why Models-3? Studies currently in progress using Models-3 framework for U.K. air quality and deposition Focus on particulates:

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Some recent studies using Models-3

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  1. Some recent studies using Models-3 Ian Rodgers Ian.Rodgers@innogy.com Presentation to APRIL meeting London 4th March 2003

  2. Outline • Why Models-3? • Studies currently in progress using Models-3 framework for U.K. air quality and deposition • Focus on particulates: • Particulate modelling in CMAQ • Some initial results from a validation study • Conclusions and issues to resolve

  3. Why Models-3? • JEP wants to have good understanding of effects of power station operation on the environment • Key issues include air quality, health effects, ecosystem effects • Wanted single framework to address these issues: • Multi-issue • Multi timescale (episode to annual) • Flexibility of spatial scale (local – regional – transboundary) • Adequate treatment of large elevated point sources • ‘future proof’ science • Models-3/CMAQ emerged from review of available models as best meeting requirements

  4. Approach to development of Models-3 capability • Build Models-3/CMAQ domain to include a large enough region of Europe to provide good boundary fluxes for U.K. • Use nested grid capability to provide 4km grid resolution for test region in Midlands • Build key inputs • Emissions • Meteorology • ‘unsolder’ hard wired features! • Test performance of ‘vanilla’ model • ‘one atmosphere’ approach

  5. Current studies • A number of studies are currently being performed: • Validation of Models-3 wet deposition modelling • Full-year simulation of air quality and deposition for the U.K. (joint JEP/Environment Agency study) • Validation of Models-3 particulate modelling • Testing of Models-3 plume rise ad plume in grid methodologies Some illustrative results from the particulates study will be shown

  6. Particulates in Models-3 • CMAQ aerosols module derived from USEPA Regional Particulate Model • Modal approach: PM represented by 3 lognormal modes • Nucleation mode • Accumulation mode • Coarse mode • Simulates 3 integral properties of each mode: • Number concentration • Surface area concentration • Mass concentration

  7. Particulates in Models-3 (2) • Particulate species: • Fine: SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, elemental C, liquid water, organic species (primary, anthropogenic secondary, biogenic secondary) • Coarse: soil-derived material, sea salt, unspecified anthrop. species

  8. Particulates in Models-3 - dynamics Primary emissions 0.1% 99.9% Aitken mode Accumulation mode nucleation condensation condensation coagulation coagulation within-mode Inter-mode within-mode Coarse mode In-cloud scavenging CCN

  9. Validation of Models-3 for atmospheric particulate concentrations • Joint Environmental Programme funded study • Comparison of Models-3 results with TEOM measurements from JEP monitoring stations at Cliffe, Thorney, Bottesford • Initial simulation run for Winter (January) and Summer (August) condition • ‘Vanilla’ model parameterisation (no model tuning for particulates) • Modelled values are with water removed • Work in progress – example results shown for Cliffe (only site with both PM2.5 and PM10 data)

  10. Cliffe monitoring site location

  11. Results - Cliffe, January

  12. Results - Cliffe, August

  13. Cliffe – scatter plot, January

  14. Cliffe – scatter plot, August

  15. Discussion & requirements for further work • A nested-grid implementation of Models-3 for the UK has been built & testing for AQ and deposition is under way • For PM: • Generally good level of agreement • 60% of 24 hr average results within a factor of 3 of measurements • Tendency to underestimate PM10 when background levels low • Peaks in ground level PM in model when bl low. • Peaks are primarily associated with long-range transport rather than local sources or groups of sources

  16. The next steps • Data mining of Gbytes of data generated to date • Detailed testing of impact of choice of science representation for JEP company priority issues • Use of Models-3 for effects assessment and case making • Comparison of performance with other models • Would welcome interaction with other users / potential users • (Potential framework to link European-wide issues to national issues)

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