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Ethno-Demographic Change and Nationalism in the UK and Beyond

Ethno-Demographic Change and Nationalism in the UK and Beyond. e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk ; twitter: @ epkaufm ; web: www.sneps.net. Numbers = Power?. Demography usually affects politics indirectly, or in association with another factor

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Ethno-Demographic Change and Nationalism in the UK and Beyond

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  1. Ethno-Demographic Change and Nationalism in the UK and Beyond e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm; web: www.sneps.net

  2. Numbers = Power? • Demography usually affects politics indirectly, or in association with another factor • Ethnonational change not about world population growth but: • Uneven population growth across political, national and ethnic units • Democracy and nationalism mean numbers=power • So more numbers = more power OR rising threat perceptions

  3. Figure 7 Source: Goldstone 2007

  4. Ethno-demographic change and conflict • To the extent ethnic groups and nations resemble biological ‘populations’ AND the link between ethnicity and territory has been sacralised by nationalism • Where ethnic groups have fluid boundaries OR there is no sacralisation of ethnie-territory link, no conflict

  5. Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland • "The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that." - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969

  6. Examples • N. Ireland, Lebanon, Kosovo, Bosnia, Israel-Palestine, Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Uganda, Assam (India) • Rise of Germany, Rise of USSR, Rise of Islam, Rise of China, Decline of the West…. • In a less violent way, demographic change can lead to increased threat perceptions, even in peaceful societies

  7. Source: Duffy and Frere-Smith 2014: 8-9. Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.

  8. Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

  9. Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

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